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Will a national title contender emerge from the Big Ten?
The Big Ten hasn't had a Final Four team since Michigan State made it in 2019. To find a national champion, you have to go back even further — all the way to 2000, when Tom Izzo's Spartans cut down the nets.
And yet as we continue our march toward the NCAA Tournament, it has once again become clear that the conference is loaded with top-end talent and stacked deep with potential contenders in the Big Dance.
Is this the year things change? Can the Big Ten contend on the national stage?
We break it all down.
According to our latest bracket forecast from Mike DeCourcy, the Big Ten is on course to land nine NCAA Tournament bids, more than any other conference. Why so much respect for the league?
John Fanta: The Big Ten posted a collective record of 115-37 in nonconference action, a .757 winning percentage that was second to only the Big 12 among all conferences. This is where November and December matter more than people realize, as the Big Ten was able to build up a strong profile in the opening six weeks of the season. Now, the league's parity is showing because its depth is off the charts. Six Big Ten teams are in the top 35 of the NET rankings, while 12 of the 14 programs are inside the top 75. That means that only a home game against Nebraska or a home/away matchup against Minnesota would be worse than a quadrant two game in the league. When you have less than a handful of games that would even be recognized as a bad loss, you’re going to be in a quality spot as a league win will help you more than a league loss will hurt you. That’s the sign of a conference that’s going to rack up tournament units.
Andy Katz: The Big Ten has one team that is struggling this season in Minnesota, and another that is out of the NCAA Tournament conversation in Nebraska. That means 12 of the 14 schools are legitimately in the NCAA bid picture. Of course, not all 12 will get there, but they have all won enough games so far, beaten at least one NCAA-bound team and continue to show well in all the metrics. These are stable programs that all have an identity.
No. 3 Purdue tops the league standings. What do you think of the Boilermakers’ chances of making a Final Four run?
Andy: Very high. The Boilermakers have the most dominant big man and the leader for national player of the year in Zach Edey. His game-winning bucket against Michigan State on Monday was a great example of how he can be a closer. Once the ball goes into the post in a situation like that with the game on the line, he can deliver. But the reason the Boilers have a Final Four chance is because of freshmen guards Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith. Loyer is one of the most confident shooters in the country, regardless of class, and has already had multiple game-winning shots — or at least game-clinching shots. Smith is just as confident and a heady point guard who never seems to be fazed. And overall the Boilers have proven to have more depth than originally perceived.
John: The chances are reasonable, but I’m going to disagree with Andy that the chances are very high. For starters, even though the Boilermakers are 17-1, the entire climate of the sport seems open. The reason why I have some concerns with Purdue? Michigan State showed that if you cut off the Boilermakers’ guards as much as possible, there’s only so much Edey can do. He’s the best player in college basketball, but how many times are teams winning it all with their focal point player being a center? Now, Loyer has been huge for this team, and Smith has really impressed. I love those freshman guards and think their production level will tell how deep this team goes. It wouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Boilermakers in the Final Four, but they have some things to figure out. The biggest issue is high ball screen coverage defensively, as Tyson Walker showed on Monday when he created nightmares for the Boilers, leading to Edey getting beat a couple of times by quicker guard play and perimeter shots. I worry about Purdue’s defense, and if others do similar things to make Edey work defensively, he might not be as dominant on offense.
Zach Edey gives life to No. 3 Purdue
Which team is most likely to challenge Purdue for the conference crown?
Andy: Rutgers. I thought it would be Ohio State or Michigan State a few weeks ago. But the Buckeyes have hit a four-game skid, and an injury to Malik Hall has hurt the Spartans — though it should be noted that they nearly beat Purdue on Monday. But Rutgers has the tiebreaker against Purdue with the win at Mackey. The home loss to Iowa stings, but that’s the only other blemish. Look, there is no guarantee Rutgers can keep pace, but the Scarlet Knights can score now with Cam Spencer with more regularity, and they are the best defensive team in the league. So if they can keep games in the 50s and/or 60s, then the Knights have a great chance to win. Think about this: Rutgers can win the Big Ten. That’s a statement that never would have been uttered a few years ago. Ever.
John: Here’s the deal. Hunter Dickinson and Michigan are 4-2 in the Big Ten, and the schedule creaks the door open for the Wolverines to play a factor in the race. Sure, they have not had the prettiest set of results this season, but Kobe Bufkin and Dug McDaniel have made some progress in the backcourt, and freshman Jett Howard is averaging 15.5 points per game on 45% shooting. Think about the Wolverines’ upcoming slate:
- 1/19: at Maryland
- 1/22: Minnesota
- 1/26: Purdue
- 1/29: at Penn State
- 2/2: at Northwestern
- 2/5: Ohio State
- 2/8: Nebraska
There’s really nothing that daunting for Michigan outside of a massive opportunity at home against the Boilermakers in the middle of this stretch. While the schedule gets tougher as February goes on, the fact is that the Wolverines could very well progress and be a different team when that time arrives. Juwan Howard’s team can win in College Park on Thursday, and it isn't going to lose to Minnesota. That means Michigan could go into a showdown with Purdue in Ann Arbor at 6-2 with a chance to play first place. This team still has certain things to figure out defensively, but the schedule should allow for them to grow in confidence. Michigan should be no worse than 9-4, if not 10-3 head into the stretch run.
Hunter Dickinson throws it down
Is there a sleeper team that could make some noise in March?
John: On its best day, Illinois is one of the best 15-20 teams in the country. If the Illini put their A-game out there, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them in the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. The 13-5 Illini own wins over UCLA, Texas, Wisconsin and Michigan State. Baylor transfers Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja have been welcome additions to Brad Underwood’s group, and when he’s on, Terrence Shannon Jr. is one of the more talented guards in America. Coleman Hawkins is better than advertised, while freshman guard Jayden Epps has been a solid addition. Ranking in the top 40 in KenPom offensive and defensive efficiency, Illinois is a versatile, quality defensive team as well.
Andy: Iowa. If it’s not Purdue, Rutgers, Ohio State and/or Michigan State, then my next pick would be Iowa. The Hawkeyes can score with any team in the country and have a productive player in Kris Murray. Payton Sandfort is now drilling 3s and Filip Rebraca has been a staple inside. This team can defend when it applies itself. Illinois is the other contender, but I’m still not totally sold on the Illini being a consistent team over a three- to four-day period with multiple games. Murray is the star who can shine in March.
Can anyone beat out Zach Edey for conference player of the year?
Andy: Nope. It’s over. Jalen Pickett of Penn State had a chance a few weeks ago, but the Nittany Lions lost to Purdue at the Palestra, and the Nittany Lions couldn’t beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, either. Edey is the front-runner for the national player of the year, as well. He has competition, of course, with Alabama’s Brandon Miller, Kansas’ Jalen Wilson, Gonzaga’s Drew Timme, Houston’s Marcus Sasser and Arizona’s Azuolas Tubelis.
John: If there was a "Heisman" moment for Edey — as if he even needed one — it would be Monday afternoon in East Lansing. On a FOX national broadcast with no other live sports happening, Edey showed anybody and everybody that he is a talent that we haven’t seen in quite some time. His game-winning bucket off the catch and through some contact further cemented his grasp on national player of the year.
The other thing about Edey? He leaves his ego at the door and has a great demeanor that rubs off on the rest of this Purdue team. After his 32-and-17 performance in Monday’s win over the Spartans, Edey was critical of himself, saying that he missed a lot of shots that he’s capable of making and that he should have had 30 in the first half.
In a college basketball world of uncertainty, there’s no doubt who the Big Ten and national player of the year front-runner is right now: Mr. Edey.
For those who are curious about who comes after Edey in the Big Ten player hierarchy, here are the four players I’d put alongside the 7-foot-5 Purdue superstar on an all-conference first team:
- Jalen Pickett, Penn State
- Kris Murray, Iowa
- Hunter Dickinson, Michigan
- Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana
Andy Katz is a longtime college basketball writer, analyst and host. He can be seen on the Big Ten Network, as well as March Madness and NCAA.com, and he hosts the podcast "March Madness 365." Katz worked at ESPN for nearly two decades and, prior to that, in newspapers for nine years.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him on Twitter @John_Fanta.
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