College Football

College football odds: Why Michigan State is a bigger underdog vs. Michigan than you think

Updated Oct. 28, 2021 5:40 p.m. ET

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By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is headed to East Lansing this Saturday for a battle of undefeated Big Ten teams from the Great Lakes State.

It’s No. 6 Michigan (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS) at No. 8 Michigan State (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS). The winner will undoubtedly challenge Ohio State for Big Ten East supremacy and a berth in the conference championship. 

The Wolverines and Spartans have been extremely successful at covering the point spread this season with a collective 11-2-1 mark against the closing number. Creating a number for this game was trickier than you think.

Circa Sports is the first sportsbook in the world to open college football betting lines on Sunday afternoons around 2 p.m. ET.

Michigan opened as a 4-point favorite with a total of 53.5.

"I had it higher, but I know my numbers," Circa Sports sportsbook director Matt Metcalf told FOX Sports. "I always tend to underrate Michigan State from a power rating standpoint because they’re kind of a weird team. They play closer as a dog, and they’re not as good when they’re the favorite.

"In this situation, if my raw number says Michigan -7, I have to shave a couple of points off. Even if I open Michigan -6 or -6.5, the initial money still comes in on Michigan State. Then I’m down to -4 or -4.5 anyway. So, I opened Michigan -4, and they laid it right away, which surprised me. Then, they took +4.5 back. I guess -4 was a pretty good number."

There have been thousands of bets on the game at sportsbooks around the country since the market opened, but Metcalf’s line is still holding strong. Even FOX Bet is dealing Wolverines -4 with a point total of 50.5.

"If somebody who has a lot of money in the market takes an opinion, you’ll see the number start to run," Metcalf explained. "That’s what it comes down to."

Like most oddsmakers, Metcalf uses power ratings to grade teams and help create his point spreads. He’s been impressed with the way Michigan and Michigan State have taken care of business to date, but his gap between the two squads hasn’t changed much since the season got underway.

"Both teams have outperformed my expectations about the same amount," Metcalf admitted. "Michigan is a couple of points better than I originally thought, and so is Michigan State. If I put up a Game of the Year line before the season, I would’ve had it roughly at -4 or -5, and eight weeks into the season, that’s exactly where the market is."

This year, Michigan has covered both its road games, a 21-point victory at Wisconsin and a nail-biting 3-point win at Nebraska. And while some people might say the Wolverines haven’t truly been tested away from home, Metcalf vehemently disagrees with that sentiment.

"You can’t count those games against them," he said. "Michigan led Wisconsin by three points at the half and won big, but everybody who does power ratings should have Wisconsin in the top 15. Both Wisconsin and Nebraska are better than oddsmakers thought. Their records don’t indicate that, but those are really good wins on the road.

"Michigan is historically not a team that wins by big margins. The Wolverines grind and break down their opponent and pull away in the second half. That’s how they play. Michigan State is a great dog that hangs around and lets you beat yourself if you keep them in the game."

Metcalf’s path back behind the counter is a fascinating one. He worked under bookmaking legends Jay Kornegay and Ed Salmons at the Westgate SuperBook over a decade ago, then left the sportsbook industry to bet games professionally until Circa owner Derek Stevens came calling in 2018.

He admits that this storied rivalry game has given him fits over the years.

"I have such a bad history with Michigan State, particularly in this game," Metcalf said before a sigh. "I can go through the years of me laying the number with Michigan and losing so many fluky ways. I have nightmares about 2015 when Jim Harbaugh elected to punt in the final seconds with a 23-21 lead, and the punter fumbled. Of course, Michigan State returned it for a touchdown. Pain.

"I also feel like 90% of the people that work in the Circa family went to Michigan State, even though Derek went to Michigan," Metcalf said. "Everybody else went to Michigan State. I take s--- all year from everybody when I put up numbers that are anti-Michigan State. I’m used to it."

After Saturday’s Michigan-MSU game is over, the conversation will shift to the obvious elephant in the room. The winner is headed directly for a collision course with Ohio State, the other undefeated team in the Big Ten East.

And it should be no surprise that the Buckeyes are the betting favorite in future games against Sparty at home and Michigan on the road.

"My numbers have Ohio State 10 points better than Michigan on a neutral right now," Metcalf stated. "That game is in Ann Arbor, so the spread will probably be in the touchdown range. Ohio State would be -17 against Michigan State on a neutral, so it’s around OSU -20 at home."

After speaking with Metcalf, I’m ready to back the Wolverines in this spot behind their great offensive line and power running attack that will open up play-action passes down the field. And give me Harbaugh over Mel Tucker when it comes to making in-game and halftime adjustments.

Lay the points.

Michigan 30, Michigan State 20. 

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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