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Penn State-Illinois, TCU-Houston: What we're watching in Week 3
Much of the chatter around the Big Ten this season has focused on Penn State, with curious observers pondering several questions:
Can the No. 7 Nittany Lions finally take the next step?
Can Drew Allar live up to the hype?
Can James Franklin's talented squad challenge Michigan and Ohio State in the Big Ten East, the most top-heavy division in college football?
Penn State has a chance to begin answering all those questions this weekend when it heads to Champaign for its conference opener against Illinois. It's a challenge Franklin relishes.
"We go to Illinois, which is a tradition around here, opening on the road in the Big Ten. We love it," he said on Wednesday. "I actually called [Penn State VP for intercollegiate athletics] Pat [Kraft] a little bit ago. I think they were talking about coming out with a new schedule, so we're going to try and reverse psychology and ask to be on the road this year and see what happens. … It's going to be an ‘orange out.’ Should be a great atmosphere. … So, it'll be a great environment for college football, and we're looking forward to it."
Beyond Penn State vs. Illinois, there are some other great matchups, including Ohio State with a tricky matchup against offensive juggernaut Western Kentucky, Houston's introduction to the Big 12 vs. TCU, Tennessee taking on Florida at The Swamp, and more.
FOX Sports college football experts RJ Young, Michael Cohen and Bryan Fischer share what they'll be looking for in the biggest games this week.
Previewing the biggest games in Week 3: Can Illinois upset Penn State?
No. 7 Penn State at Illinois (Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)
Michael Cohen: On Tuesday, Illinois defensive coordinator Aaron Henry spoke to the local media in Champaign following last week's 34-23 loss to Kansas. He began his news conference with the following:
"It's obvious and apparent that we didn't play well defensively for the second week in a row, you know?" Henry said. "And that falls squarely on my shoulders. I think when you talk about having a good defensive system, and then you suffer defeat like that [in the manner] in which we did, I think you open up yourself for other things to come in the future. And I think you have to explore options of everything you do from a schematic standpoint to how you install — you look at everything, you know?"
Not exactly the words Illini fans would have wanted to hear two games into a new regime. Last year's defensive coordinator, Ryan Walters, whose group led the country in scoring defense, is now the head coach at Purdue, and he took several of his assistants with him. Rather than making an external hire, head coach Bret Bielema elevated Henry, 34, from defensive backs coach to coordinator for the first time. And unfortunately for Henry, the early returns have been terrible: The Illini rank 126th nationally in total defense and 123rd in rushing defense. Bielema was even asked this week about possibly changing the defensive playcaller, though he swatted the question aside.
Still, the mood in Champaign is far from ideal as the Illini welcome Penn State's lethal offense to Memorial Stadium on Saturday. Led by quarterback Drew Allar and star running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, the Nittany Lions rank sixth in scoring offense, 14th in total offense, 15th in rushing offense and 41st in passing offense despite resting their starters for significant chunks of last week's 63-7 thrashing of Delaware. Henry's unit is facing a significant uphill battle to avoid losing its Big Ten opener for the second consecutive year.
Bryan Fischer: Game length could definitely be on my mind as we enter the fourth quarter, which would be surprising if not for the fact that the last meeting between these teams resulted in the longest FBS game of all time.
More than that, though, this feels like a real early test of what Illinois is going to be defensively this year. The Illini are dead last in the conference in scoring defense, yards allowed and rush defense — a far cry from where they were a year ago when Walters was churning out draft picks and assembling one of the best units in the country. I don't think it's completely down to Henry taking over the play calling but rather the players themselves not stepping up in the right situation or too easily getting confused — as they were a few times against Kansas last week. They've got some good personnel, this is the type of game you want to see them play to their potential after such a shaky start to the year.
I'm particularly keeping an eye out for the interior battle between Jer'Zhan Newton against the PSU offensive line. They've only surrendered one sack this season and are paving the way for the duo of Singleton and Allen (the real law firm involved in this game) to the tune of 135 rushing yards per game. If the Nittany Lions roll into town and do what they've done to West Virginia and Delaware, it might be time to start talking about this group as the biggest threat to defending B1G champion Michigan.
RJ Young: The Fighting Illini have a lot working against them in the game, even with home-field advantage.
For instance, Penn State has won its last seven road games against unranked opponents, star tailback Singleton has scored in each of PSU's last seven games, and the Nittany Lions have scored in each of the last 20 quarters they have played.
For Bielema, Luke Altmyer and the Illini, putting together long scoring drives — easier said than done — is their best chance to pull off what would be the biggest upset of the year so far.
Joel Klatt: What makes Penn State QB Drew Allar special
South Carolina at No. 1 Georgia (3:30 p.m. ET)
Michael Cohen: While there's never been a direct correlation between gaudy passing numbers and overall team success, it's jarring to see Georgia favored by nearly four touchdowns against a South Carolina team led by quarterback Spencer Rattler, the third-leading passer in college football this season at 349 yards per game. But such is the dominance of the machine assembled by head coach Kirby Smart, whose Bulldogs have won 20 consecutive home games and are approaching the school record of 24 straight home victories that was set from 1980-83. Back-to-back blowouts of UT Martin (48-7) and Ball State (45-3) have certainly inflated Georgia's defensive statistics through the first two weeks, but the Bulldogs haven't allowed more than 20 points per game in a season since Smart's first debut in 2016. And don't forget that Rattler completed just 13 of 25 passes for 118 yards and two interceptions against Georgia last year. Expect more of the same this weekend.
RJ Young: South Carolina loves — I mean loves — playing in these games. The ones where their opponent is a Goliath, and they're just standing there with a pebble and slingshot.
Last year alone, the Gamecocks knocked off Notre Dame, Tennessee and Clemson when all were ranked among the top 25. This year Beamer and Rattler are back with this game between the hedges.
Rattler, a former five-star quarterback, will have to come up with something memorable to lead the Gamecocks to an improbable win.
Bryan Fischer: It will certainly be nice to see Georgia play a team with a pulse if nothing else. I'm not convinced that South Carolina's offensive line is anywhere close to the middle of the pack in the SEC, so I'm not sure Rattler is going to get enough time to throw or do his usual heroics against a top-25 opponent as he has in the past. As a result, it's all about Carson Beck continuing to manage drives and potentially make some plays downfield.
Western Kentucky at No. 6 Ohio State (4 p.m. ET on FOX)
Bryan Fischer: The Buckeyes haven't lost to a non-Power 5 team since 1998, but Western Kentucky's offense is just the type that can at least give them some fits on Saturday with the way they operate. This is also one of Tyson Helton's better defenses he's had at WKU based on early returns, and when you combine that with a turnover here or an Austin Reed touchdown pass down the field, I do wonder how long the Hilltoppers will keep things interesting before OSU inevitably starts to pull away.
For the Buckeyes offense, I would expect they're going to use this game to continue to refine things and hope to build the chemistry and timing that hasn't been there through the first two games. Sure, QB Kyle McCord will probably play a little freer now that he's earned the label as "the guy" behind center, but it would be in Ryan Day's best interest to keep all his playmakers fed with touches and some opportunities to make plays in the end zone.
Selfishly, I also hope we get the Brutus-Big Red photo op we all would appreciate, too.
Kyle McCord is the starter: What this means for the Buckeyes
Michael Cohen: Ohio State's quarterback competition came to a close earlier this week when head coach Ryan Day named McCord the starter for Week 3 and beyond. Having been with the program a year longer than challenger Devin Brown, who has never started a collegiate game, McCord was the odds-on favorite to win the job once C.J. Stroud declared for the NFL Draft last winter. That it took him all of spring, all of fall camp and the first two games of Ohio State's regular season to seal the deal has injected some trepidation into segments of the fan base. And while that skepticism might be justified, McCord should be able to exhibit more freedom this weekend knowing he's officially won the job. Day hinted that the mental challenges of an ongoing competition influenced both quarterbacks in the Buckeyes' first two games. Still, McCord took a significant step forward from Week 1 to Week 2 by completing 14 of 20 passes for 258 yards and three scores against the Penguins. Saturday's matchup with Western Kentucky could produce another uptick in his performance without the threat of being pulled.
RJ Young: Now that we know for sure that McCord is the starter in Columbus, I'm curious to see how he plays. The freedom to not have to look over his shoulder should lead to better play.
But it's Jim Knowles' defense that I'll watch closely. The Buckeyes have surrendered just 10 points all year, but they haven't met an offensively potent team like the Hilltoppers.
Western Kentucky (2-0) ain't no chumps. Reed will be out to prove he's the best QB on the field, and he was the most prolific in FBS last year with 4,746 pass yards. Against South Florida, he completed 29 of 50 for 336 in a 41-24 win, and they put up 52 on Houston Christian in their opener.
If the Buckeyes can keep WKU's offense in check, they're capable of holding others in check, too.
No. 8 Washington at Michigan State (5 p.m. ET)
Michael Cohen: It's the sign of an unhealthy program when one off-field topic after another is dominating the conversation, and that's certainly been the case for Michigan State since its magical run to the Peach Bowl in 2021. The latest scandal involves allegations of sexual harassment by Brenda Tracy against MSU head coach Mel Tucker, who was subsequently suspended without pay by athletic director Alan Haller pending the results of an ongoing investigation.
How the Spartans respond to playing without their head coach is the obvious focal point of what has the makings of a marquee showdown with No. 8 Washington. Defensive backs coach Harlon Barnett, a Michigan State alum, has been elevated to interim head coach in Tucker's absence. Former Spartans head coach Mark Dantonio, who retired following the 2019 season, was also added to the staff with an associate head coach title. Together, Barnett and Dantonio must rally the troops and devise a game plan to slow the top-ranked passing offense in college football led by quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (429.5 yards per game).
RJ Young: Sleepless in Seattle? I think not. As Mike pointed out, Penix is absolutely cooking with hot grease, as are the Huskies — averaging 49.5 a game.
Michigan State QB Noah Kim and RB Nate Carter might be great, but they're going to have to be spectacular against a Huskies team that exists to break scoreboards.
Bryan Fischer: If there's any game that is going to produce a "what are you made of" moment for Michigan State, it's going to be this one. It has to be hard for many on the team to process the scandal that has enveloped Tucker, but if they are ever going to tune out the external noise to focus on the field, a highly ranked opponent coming to town seems like a moment where we'll get maximum effort from the Spartans.
Between the lines, the Huskies figure to throw the ball all over the yard, but I want to keep an eye on just how well they're going to be able to run the football in this one against one of the bigger fronts they'll play early in the season. Penix and all those star receivers have been great, but the question to me is if they can consistently get those chunk plays on the ground to move the sticks. Despite playing two Group of 5 teams at home, they're one of a handful of programs averaging under 100 yards rushing per game (114th in the FBS ranks) and this represents a great spot to test just how good they can be on the ground a year ahead of joining the Big Ten and making this one a future conference game.
No. 11 Tennessee at Florida (7 p.m. ET)
Michael Cohen: After debuting with a 6-7 record last season, Florida head coach Billy Napier entered the 2023 campaign in an interesting position. His Gators are picked to finish fifth in this year's SEC East behind Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Kentucky. He introduced a new defensive coordinator in Austin Armstrong from Southern Miss, and there's uncertainty at quarterback with former blue chip prospect Graham Mertz, a transfer, winning the job after four underwhelming seasons at Wisconsin. But lingering on the horizon is the kind of hope that inspires fan bases to give their coach a longer leash. Entering this week's date with Tennessee, the Gators have the No. 3 recruiting class in the country for the 2024 cycle. They have verbal commitments from a five-star edge rusher, a five-star cornerback and a five-star quarterback in DJ Lagway, the No. 27 overall prospect regardless of position. All of which means this current season is laced with an undercurrent of survival and self-preservation. Can Napier and his staff keep things competitive enough to ensure they make it to 2024?
RJ Young: While the Gators got their first win last week, 49-7, against McNeese State, there's only so much you count on when the opposing starter had gone just 15 of 35 against Tarleton State the week before.
The fact is the Gators couldn't beat a Utah team without Cam Rising in Week 1, and the Utes were nearly beaten by a Baylor team without Blake Shapen last week.
Meanwhile, Joe Milton hasn't thrown an INT in his last 233 pass attempts, and the Vols have scored at least once in each of the last 25 quarters they've played.
Unless Mertz has his best football left to play, the Gators are likely staring down their first loss in the Swamp against Smokey and the Vols since 2003.
Bryan Fischer: Seeing the Gators up close in their opener, it was clear that mental mistakes were holding the team back, so it will be interesting to see if they can correct things as Tennessee comes to town. Josh Heupel is so good at punishing you for not being aligned properly or messing up coverage on the backend, so Napier has to get Florida better prepared for what he's going to see on Saturday night.
TCU at Houston (8 p.m. ET on FOX)
Michael Cohen: By Saturday night, TDECU Stadium should be rocking when Power 5 football comes to Houston for the first time in the Cougars' debut as members of the Big 12. Not since the old Southwest Conference broke apart in 1996 — which sent the likes of Texas, Texas A&M, Baylor and TCU scattering — have the Cougars been part of a marquee football league or a sizable television contract. All of which changed last summer when they reached a verbal agreement to join the Big 12 ahead of the 2023 season. Seventeen years in Conference USA and 10 more in The American have given way to more stability, improved visibility and a geographic footprint that makes far more sense than trekking to Navy, Memphis, Temple and multiple schools in Florida. The question now is whether Houston can hang, whether head coach Dana Holgorsen — who has won 20 games and both bowl appearances over the last two years — can replicate the success the Cougars have enjoyed in a lesser conference. He'll begin to find out this weekend.
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RJ Young: Houston couldn't put up more than 17 on UTSA and only won by three. TCU put up 42 on Colorado and lost by three.
The Horned Frogs are more talented on both offense and defense, and are still the national title runners-up in the sport. Meanwhile, Houston lost offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson to Miami, and Texas Tech transfer QB Donovan Smith is still getting used to the new offense called by Holgorsen.
I like TCU to go down to Houston and properly introduce the Cougars to the Big 12.
Bryan Fischer: Well, I'm sure I won't be the only one on either side to get nostalgic for the old SWC when these two hook up again — this time in the Big 12. Memories aside, though, I can't help but wonder if this is a wake-up game for both coaching staffs. The Horned Frogs probably were the better team on balance in the loss to Colorado, but simply got out-coached and failed to take advantage of what was there for the taking. As league play begins, some of those issues need to get corrected, and this is the first real test whether TCU remains in the conversation to get to AT&T Stadium again or if this is just the rebuilding year the opener made it look like.
The Cougars haven't played two straight quarters of good football yet this season, and you can't help but wonder if all the hot seat talk surrounding Holgorsen is going to start to grow a little louder with any potential loss. That's the kind of thing that teams will try to tune out as much as they can but often ends up compounding mistakes as the pressure keeps building. Donovan Smith has been solid enough taking over at QB, but it's UH's defense being so blasé that is really concerning for a program facing the best offense they'll see until late October.
If Houston continues on the track it has displayed so far in 2023, this one could wind up really getting away from the team.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.
Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.
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