Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls at Houston Rockets Outlook: 3-Pointers and James Harden

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 2:32 p.m. ET

Fansided, Hunter Kuffel/FanSided via Pippen Ain't Easy

For the second stop on their Western Conference road trip, the Chicago Bulls take on MVP favorite James Harden and the Houston Rockets. Read on for Chicago’s biggest keys to the game, and other things to watch out for.

The Bulls have a chance Friday night to start the month of February off with a bang. After a convincing win against one MVP candidate in Russell Westbrook last Wednesday, the Bulls will look to achieve the same result against Westbrook’s main competition: James Harden.

It won’t be easy.

The Rockets have been one of the biggest surprise teams of the season, and they’re currently 36-17, which is good for the third best record in the association. Their offense has been, unsurprisingly, downright monstrous, with James Harden as the lead distributor, Mike D’Antoni at the helm, and sharpshooters galore.

Their 17th-ranked defense has also been better than expected, albeit still slightly below average. Few predicted Houston to crack the top 20 defensively, but the likes of Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza, and Clint Capela have managed to form a solid unit.

Let’s take a look at some of the key factors in Friday’s game, starting with what sets these two teams apart more than anything else: 3-point shooting.

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3-Point Disparity

Here’s a fun fact for you: The Rockets and the Bulls actually take almost exactly the same amount of shots per game. The Rockets hoist 86.5 field goal attempts per game while the Bulls shoot 86.4.

Once we changed the measurement to per 100 possessions, the disparity grows. The Bulls have 88.4 field goal attempts, the third most in the league. Houston, on the other hand, shoots 84.5. This may not seem like a big gap, but it’s only the 24th most in the NBA, 21 spots lower than Chicago.

Chicago also takes about one more free throw per 100 possessions than the Rockets. So if they take about four more shots and one more free throw, it makes sense that the Bulls should score more points right?

Nope.

The difference lies in 3-point shooting. Houston is taking an astounding 39.8 3-point attempts per game this season. If they keep it up, that will break the previous record for 3-point attempts in a game by about seven. The previous record holder? The 2014-2015 Houston Rockets.

The Rockets are making 36.2 percent of their 3-pointers and scoring an absurd 111.3 points per 100 possessions. It’s safe to say that the Bulls are not doing that. Chicago takes roughly half as many attempts from deep as the Rockets do, and they rank dead last in both 3-point attempts per 100 possessions, 3-point percentage, and percentage of points that come from 3-pointers. The Bulls’ 104.5 points per 100 possessions ranks them 18th among NBA offenses compared to Houston’s third. All this is to say that Bulls will have trouble scoring enough to stay in this game.

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They Have James Harden

The headline pretty much says it all.

Harden has been an offensive maestro for the Rockets this season, ever since Mike D’Antoni finally did what, in hindsight, seems obviously intuitive. D’Antoni declared in the preseason that Harden would be the team’s point guard, and the offense is humming like it’s never hummed before.

Harden still excels in getting to the free throw line and sinking stepbacks off of the herky jerky iso moves that made him a star in the first place. But it’s Harden the facilitator that has catapulted this team into another tier.

Look at the absolute defensive collapse that Harden causes. Every Bucks player on the court takes a step toward this Harden drive, but the Beard keeps it up unfazed and dishes to an open Eric Gordon on the perimeter.

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There are only a small handful of players in the league who terrify defenses like Harden does. Although Chicago is currently boasting the seventh best defense, they should be afraid. Look for Jimmy Butler to take on Harden for extensive stretches, seeing as the Bulls are short on any other personnel that stand a chance against him, unless they want to toss out Paul Zipser and see what happens.

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The Rockets’ Recent Rough Patch

So far, this outlook has been decidedly pessimistic about the Bulls’ chances in Friday’s game. There is, however, one important factor that has gone unmentioned.

Although the Rockets remain a top team in the league, they haven’t been without their own struggles recently. They’ve lost eight of their last 13 games. Even though six of those losses admittedly came to playoff teams, that’s never a good sign for a team that wants a shot at contending for a title.

If there’s ever a team that can capitalize on a struggling opponent by winning a game it has no business winning, it’s your Chicago Bulls. The only thing missing is TNT broadcasting the game #TNTBulls. Chicago can inspire confidence simply by seeming like a worse team than the Rockets. That’s where we are now.

There is a blueprint through which the Bulls could come away with this game. If Eric Gordon and Ryan Anderson aren’t feeling it from deep, Chicago wins the rebounding battle by a significant margin, and Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade have good shooting nights, they have a shot at this game.

Stay tuned for all the upcoming coverage from PAE as we head into the All Star break.