National Football League

2024 NFC Championship odds: Favorites, picks, predictions for Lions-49ers

Updated Jan. 27, 2024 3:01 p.m. ET

It's down to the last two in the NFC, with the title game featuring the Detroit Lions and the San Francisco 49ers.

The Lions are 7-point underdogs at Levi's Stadium, and you can catch all the action on FOX and the FOX Sports app.

Of the four remaining teams, Detroit has the longest odds to take home the Lombardi at +850.

In the days leading up to the NFC title game, FOX Sports betting analyst Patrick Everson revealed that the Lions were getting lots of moneyline love despite being 'dogs against San Francisco.

The Niners, on the other hand, are not only favored to win on Sunday, but they are also favored to win it all, sitting at +140 on the Super Bowl betting board.

With a spot in the Super Bowl at stake, what are the best bets to make for the NFC Championship Game?

Our experts — Chris "The Bear" Fallica, Sam "Sammy P" Panayotovich, Geoff Schwartz, Jason McIntyre and Will Hill — are here to help.

Let's dive into their picks.

CHRIS "THE BEAR" FALLICA

Lions Team Total — Over/Under 20.5

The thing I'm most confident about in this game is Detroit scoring points against a San Francisco defense that is extremely vulnerable in the secondary.

Plus, there are many avenues to get here. If the Lions defense cannot slow down the 49ers offense, then we could be in store for a 35-28 type game, as Detroit will be chasing points.

Or, the Lions could just get up in the game against the Niners. We might not have Deebo Samuel [at 100 percent] and San Francisco might not be able to keep pace.

Either way, in good weather conditions against a struggling unit, Detroit should be good enough for 21 points here.

PICK: Lions team total Over 20.5 points scored

Brock Purdy Passing Yards — Over/Under 272.5 yards

As mentioned above, there's a good chance this is a high-scoring game, given the state of the two defenses.

Detroit's pass defense is in worse shape than San Francisco's. In the playoffs alone, the Lions allowed 367 yards to Matthew Stafford and 349 to Baker Mayfield.

Even if Samuel can't play at full steam, the Niners have enough weapons to put up big yardage through the air, which probably will include Purdy throwing the ball to Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield.

The weather should be fine and maybe, just maybe, the Niners surviving the scare and Purdy having a great final drive last week against the Packers will put him in line for a huge game this week.

PICK: Brock Purdy Over 272.5 passing yards

Is Purdy the 49ers' biggest concern heading into NFC Championship Game?

GEOFF SCHWARTZ

Brandon Aiyuk Receiving Yards Over/Under 79.5 yards

Detroit's pass defense is one of the worst in the NFL.

The Lions allowed 147 yards to Tampa Bay's Mike Evans in the divisional round, which marked the fifth-straight game the Lions allowed at least 140 yards to one receiver.

It's clear opponents have figured out ways to find open space against Detroit, and I’m going to wager on that trend continuing.

PICK: Brandon Aiyuk Over 79.5 receiving yards

Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over/Under 14.5 yards

San Francisco's run defense is 26th in expected points added, and opposing running backs have taken advantage of that lately. In their last four games, the 49ers have allowed five running backs to have an explosive rush of over 16 yards.

This is a good spot for Detroit, which is 10th in rushing EPA and fifth in yards per rush.

In fact, both of the Lions' running backs — Gibbs and David Montgomery — averaged over 4.6 yards per attempt during the regular season.

The way the Lions scheme their running game, plus the explosive nature of Gibbs' running style, means that his longest rush could very well be over 14.5 yards.

PICK: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 14.5 yards

SAMMY P

49ers moneyline
Ravens moneyline

I took it on the chin with San Francisco last week. It happens.

As hesitant as I was to lay a touchdown with the Niners after they almost lost outright as 9.5-point favorites to Green Bay, it’s time to get back on the horse.

Detroit’s ascension this year has been one of the best stories in American sports, and Dan Campbell might get a statue outside Ford Field if the Lions can do the unthinkable and reach the Super Bowl.

You know better, though.

The Niners are worlds ahead of the Rams and Buccaneers, and assuming they shake the rust and avoid another early injury to a star player, they’ll be fine. What’s the final if San Francisco brings its "A" game? I’m thinking 31-17.

It’ll take a near-perfect game from Jared Goff to beat me, and I’m more than willing to find out.

Let’s also parlay the Baltimore and San Francisco moneylines at -108.

PICK: 49ers (-7) to win by more than 7 points
PICK: Ravens ML / Niners ML -108

Will Jared Goff, Lions ruin Brock Purdy, 49ers' Super Bowl hopes?

J-MAC

49ers Moneyline
49ers Team Total — Over/Under 29
Brock Purdy Passing Yards — Over/Under 272.5 yards
George Kittle — First Touchdown Scorer

The spot lines up well for San Francisco — who looked bad at home against Green Bay (in the rain!) while Detroit won and covered against Tampa Bay.

The public is going to come in on the Lions and even bigger on the ML. Detroit has been gold for gamblers this season — an NFL-best 13-6 against the spread.

However, expect things to be different on Sunday.

The Lions haven’t played a game outdoors since Dec. 10. Granted, the temperatures are expected to be in the 60s this weekend, but the splits Detroit has this season outside and on grass are down a fair amount from playing on the fast track indoors.

Samuel is obviously a massive X-factor, but don’t be fooled by just looking at their numbers without him — tackle Trent Williams missed the losses to the Vikings and Bengals, too.

Meanwhile, the Lions defense — while stout against the run (first in DVOA) — has been shredded by the likes of Nick Mullens and Mayfield in recent weeks, and Justin Fields had two of his best games of the season (passing and rushing) against this defense.

Purdy, more nimble than his stats show, could pick up a few clutch first downs with his feet.

With or without Samuel, the 49ers defense will help San Francisco pull away in the second half.

PICK: 49ers (-7) to win by more than 7 points
PICK: 49ers TT Over 29
PICK: Brock Purdy Over 279.5 passing yards
PICK: George Kittle (+710) first TD

Chiefs headline Nick’s Championship Weekend picks

WILL HILL

49ers Team Total — Over/Under 28.5

Going back to this one even though it came up short last week despite Dre Greenlaw’s best effort to return his interception in the final minute as far as possible. This Lions defense is not good. It surrendered 408 yards to the Bucs on almost seven yards per play. This comes a week after the Rams went into Detroit and racked up 425 yards on nearly eight yards per play.

Now, the Lions are removed from the comfort of their home field and will try to slow down a 49ers team that has even more weapons than their two previous opponents.

Brock Purdy struggled with the wet football last week, but the forecast looks clear for Sunday, and offense should be easy to come by for the 49ers.

PICK: 49ers team total Over 28.5 points scored

Brandon Aiyuk receiving yards Over/Under 79.5 yards

I expect a big workload for Aiyuk on Sunday and a lot of opportunities for big plays.

Samuel hurt his shoulder in last week’s game against the Packers, but he will play this week. However, if Samuel is unable to play at his best, that would peg Aiyuk as the primary target against a Lions secondary that has been hemorrhaging yardage so far this postseason.

If Samuel does play, Aiyuk will likely be guarded by Lions’ cornerback Kindle Vildor, a player that teams have routinely targeted as a liability in pass coverage.

Either way, Aiyuk is in position to have a monster performance on Sunday.

PICK: Brandon Aiyuk Over 79.5 receiving yards

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX Sports, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.