2024 NFL Playoff odds: Best bets for Packers-Cowboys, Browns-Texans
How ‘bout them Wolverines?
Michigan cemented another decent weekend for this column, and now we’re onto the NFL Playoffs. I know people want picks for every game, but that’s just not going to happen here. These lines are so tight, and the edges are minimal.
That said, I still have three football bets for this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays, either. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
Cleveland Browns (-2, O/U 44.5) at Houston Texans
Wise guys love Houston here.
There’s been an avalanche of sharp money on the Texans at +3 and +2.5 over the last couple of days in Las Vegas, and now those hooks are mostly gone. Cleveland’s defense is stellar up front, but there are some serious back-end issues with safety Grant Delpit out and corner Denzel Ward banged up.
First-time playoff quarterbacks are usually good fades in the postseason, but I’m betting on C.J. Stroud to overcome what many others haven’t. That kid has special arm talent and a coaching staff that lets him do his thing.
Cleveland is a better story, but Houston is a better bet.
PICK: Texans (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points (or win outright)
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3, O/U 52)
I’ve found myself on the trendy public underdog.
Ugh.
However, I’ve been talking all year long about how Dan Campbell will cost the Lions a deep playoff run with a dumb decision. He’s like your buddy at the blackjack table who gets a bad card and then loses his wad within 15 minutes.
The Rams’ offense is as healthy as it’s been all season, and I have a ton of faith in Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams moving the ball against an extremely questionable Detroit defense.
Oh yeah … and we get Sean McVay.
PICK: Rams ML +140
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5, O/U 43)
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7, O/U 50.5)
Let’s not overthink this one.
I’ll be shocked if wobbly Miami beats Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid at Arrowhead in sub-zero weather, and Dallas is a touchdown favorite indoors. But rather than mess around and lay a bunch of points, let’s get creative.
Take Kansas City and Dallas to win their respective games. A Chiefs-Cowboys moneyline parlay might not be the sharpest play in the world, but are either of them losing?
I’m willing to find out.
PICK: Chiefs ML / Cowboys ML -115
2023 Record: (48-34-5, +10.4)
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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