National Football League

Deebo Samuel's return shifts Lions-49ers point spread, total

Updated Jan. 27, 2024 4:29 p.m. ET

San Francisco 49ers star receiver Deebo Samuel suffered a shoulder injury in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs, sitting out most of the team's 24-21 win over the Green Bay Packers.

The Niners got good news Friday when Samuel was cleared to play in Sunday's NFC Championship Game against the Detroit Lions (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Sports app).

The news caused the point spread to move, with San Francisco being favored by 7.5 points now, moving up from 7.

The total (Over/Under) also moved to 52 combined points scored, up from 51.

FOX Sports' Colin Cowherd wasn't surprised by the line movement. "If you look at the data and the offensive production, there's an argument to be made [that] he's worth three points a game," he said. "That's unheard of for a non-quarterback."

Lions @ 49ers (Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX Sports app)

Point spread: 49ers -7.5 (49ers favored to win by more than 7.5 points; otherwise, Lions cover)
Moneyline: 49ers -351 favorites to win (bet $10 to win $12.85 total); Lions +276 underdogs to win (bet $10 to win $37.60 total)
Total: 52 points scored by both teams combined

Samuel is the second receiver in NFL history to record 4,000 receiving yards and 1,000 rushing yards in his first five seasons, joining Washington Hall of Famer Charley Taylor.

Emmanuel Acho, co-host of "Speak," pointed out the 49ers average 7.1 yards per play with Samuel, 5.7 without.

"Over the course of 64 plays, which was what the Niners played last game, that's 90 yards," Acho said. "On average, you have about 350, so we're talking about 35% differentiation of the Niners offense when Deebo plays and when Deebo doesn't play. There is no bigger story that you will hear today than the fact that Deebo is playing."

Deebo Samuel cleared to play in NFC Championship Game vs. Lions

The Niners are 53-23 (including the postseason) in games Samuel has played and 8-9 without him, according to FOX Sports Research. The 49ers lost both games he missed during the regular season this year.

Samuel has 16 plays of 20-plus yards this season, third on the team behind Brandon Aiyuk (28) and George Kittle (18).

The 49ers are 9-1 this season when Samuel has at least one play of 20-plus yards and 3-4 otherwise.

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