National Football League

Can Bills win a title in QB Josh Allen's most polarizing season yet?

Published Jan. 10, 2024 1:53 p.m. ET

Josh Allen's regular season couldn't have ended any other way than how it did in the Buffalo Bills' win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 18. It said everything about his polarizing year.

It was also the Bills' fifth consecutive win. Allen ripped away the AFC East title from the Dolphins, Tua Tagovailoa and Mike McDaniel. And the Bills took that title for the fifth consecutive season.

Allen accounted for 412 (345 passing, 67 rushing) of the team's 473 yards of total offense. He threw two touchdowns. And he managed the fourth quarter with his legs in a way I've seen few quarterbacks do, with a conversion on third-and-13 where he scrambled for 15 yards and short rushes that ended with in-bounds slides to keep the clock running. The scramble was the most crucial play on a drive that burned 4 minutes and 21 precious seconds. Those runs and slides were a display of smart football — but not the traditional quarterback play we see in late-game situations.

The Bills should have won by 30 points, but Allen also threw two interceptions and lost one fumble (on a dropback).

But that fourth-quarter management was how Allen and the Bills won. Allen knew that his team could not afford another one of his turnovers. He'd compensated for them with enough good plays. He'd gotten the lead. What he needed to do was manage it. He did just enough.

The Dolphins had a final drive and the Bills defense held up. And it's worth noting that, as we focus on Allen's crazy season, the development of that Buffalo defense has played a significant role in the outcomes of these games. But this is a story about Allen — not the defense and coach Sean McDermott. So that's where my focus will stay.

Allen's crazy game against the Dolphins — filled with good, bad and ugly — was exactly how his whole season has played out. Just look at the good, bad and ugly from his season.

He's first in total touchdowns (44), fourth in passing yards (4,306) and fifth in passing touchdowns (29).

He's second in interceptions (18), tied for fifth in fumbles (5) and tied for third in fumbles lost (3).

He's a touchdown machine. He's a turnover machine. He's hot then he's cold. (He's yes then he's no. He's in then he's out. He's up then he's down. (Yes, that's Katy Perry, and she's on point with her Josh Allen analysis.)

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His season has drawn immense praise and criticism. And nothing in between. At multiple points, he was identified as the team's problem. He is "overrated," according to FOX Sports Radio's Ben Maller. But he has also been touted as making "one of the plays of the year by a QB," per Colin Cowherd. And while he makes mistakes, you have to live with them because of how well he can play at his best, according to ESPN's Ryan Clark.

You get what I'm showing you, right? No one really agrees about Allen. And people tend to change their mind, sometimes in the course of a game.

"QB is missing a lot of open receivers and their o-line is poor. Not sure if that's coaching changing or players thinking they have all the answers," an AFC coach texted me in October when the team was 4-3 with losses to the Jets, Jaguars and Patriots.

When I brought up Allen missing open WRs with an AFC East scout, he pushed back.

"I feel like he is missing guys more but he still makes some amazing plays," the AFC East scout said. "He still terrifies me."

The interesting thing about Allen is how far he's come since his rookie season. He developed tremendously fast. But in terms of how far he's come from his third season in 2020? He hasn't developed much at all. Statistically, he's probably not playing as well. And that's probably because he no longer has Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator.

It's no coincidence that Allen hasn't been the same QB since that season. And it's also no coincidence that Allen — and the Bills offense as a whole — has functioned better under interim coordinator Joe Brady than it did under Ken Dorsey, who had a rough go as the team's OC. Daboll was incredible. Brady is solid.

And Allen has been the same guy with a different playcaller and game-planner. He doesn't change. His coordinator does.

"At this point I just think that's who he is," a retired AFC East defender said. "These QBs don't do what we got used to [during the early 2000s]."

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Allen is one of the easiest athletes in football to discuss because of his tremendous highs and lows. But what we've seen during this winning streak is that the Bills must let him take those risks. It's actually good to let him be aggressive early and often. Because for every mistake, he will often make two incredible plays. And when that ratio hits its sweet spot, the Bills are generally in the lead. But that's when the problems arise for Allen. In most cases, he doesn't know when to quit when he's ahead.

In the playoffs, he cannot do what he did against the Dolphins.

"It's the double-edged sword of, I get away with it a lot of the times and sometimes I don't and sometimes it hurts us," Allen said. "So, just knowing when and where to do it and when not to do it. ... Year 6 in this league and I should know better when to do that. And now I gotta go out there and I gotta prove that."

Allen said that in Week 1. He had just thrown three interceptions in a loss to the Jets. And even though he spoke the wisdom he needs to enact, he threw an interception in 12 of the last 13 games. He says all the right things, but he doesn't do all the right things. I think it will gradually get better but that will always be how he sees the game. A tiny throwing window is a green light — never ever a red light. Not for Allen.

The place where I'd like to see Allen create consistency is in the fourth quarter with the lead. It's one thing for turnovers to come in the first quarter — at a time when he can overcome them. It's another thing entirely to cost your team the lead and the game with a late turnover on a bone-headed mistake.

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Allen is probably going to break the record for most interceptions thrown by a quarterback all time. But if his career lasts that long (because all his running could wear down his body), he could end up scoring more than any QB, too.

For now, Allen is who he is. And the Bills are going to need to live with it. There's no controlling him, and you wouldn't really want to if you could. Buffalo's Super Bowl hopes rest on Allen making more big plays than mistakes. And people will love him for it and hate him for it. That's just the nature of a game as polarizing as his.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.