National Football League

Five candidates Patriots should consider to replace Bill Belichick

Updated Jan. 11, 2024 12:07 p.m. ET

The New England Patriots no longer have a head coach, with Bill Belichick and owner Robert Kraft mutually agreeing to part ways Thursday.

So, who's the next man up?

As much as it feels in bad taste, that's the question Belichick asked any time a player left the Patriots in free agency. It's just business, even if it's a complicated transaction, given Belichick delivered an NFL record six Super Bowl wins to New England.

It won't be easy to follow in the GOAT's footsteps. Just ask Cam Newton and Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, who had to follow in the footsteps of Tom Brady.

[Bill Belichick’s legacy is complicated, but his greatness is cemented]

The Patriots and the Kraft family have to decide which direction they want to go, philosophically, with their next coach. A wise man (ESPN's Bill Barnwell) once told me that NFL owners tend to hire the polar opposite of the coach they're replacing. But this isn't your average hiring. Kraft, for all his tensions with Belichick, must understand the value of the coach.

And the Patriots intend to hire their coach before they hire a GM.

So let's start with the candidate who has the most clearcut path to the role.

Jerod Mayo, Patriots LBs coach

If Kraft wants what is most familiar, Mayo is the guy. He's already in the building. He was recently a Patriots captain. He has an impressive track record of running his position group and New England's defense — though, technically, he isn't the defensive coordinator.

Over the past few years, Belichick refused to name Mayo or Steve Belichick as the defensive coordinator. As a result, it became murky as to who deserved credit for the defensive success after the departures of Matt Patricia in 2017 and Brian Flores in 2018.

The high and low points of Bill Belichick's time in New England

But Mayo is beloved — even with the recent report that, perhaps, he was rubbing players the wrong way. His answer to that criticism showed exactly the type of leader he will be when — not if — he is a head coach.

"When people talk about rubbing people the wrong way, I mean, that's part of the job of being a leader is to rub people the wrong way," Mayo said Jan. 2. "And I always try to be constructive and respectful with my feedback. Some people appreciate that transparency. Some don't. But at the end of the day, if we can't rub people the wrong way, how do you expect that you can be the best that you can be?"

Given what we saw from the Patriots defense, Mayo's instruction worked just fine.

Ben Johnson, Lions offensive coordinator

No one has made Jared Goff look this good — except Sean McVay.

That's good company for Johnson, who has elevated Goff's game to a place where he has, in the past two years, thrown for more than 9,000 yards, 59 touchdowns and just 19 interceptions. And when a quarterback looks good, it's generally a sign of a healthy offense.

In this case, the Lions actually built their offense around their ground game, with the fifth-most rushing yards per game (135.9) this season. They also tied the Dolphins for the most rushing touchdowns (27).

Johnson has run a balanced offense that, admittedly, has declined in recent weeks as the Lions fell out of contention for the NFC's No. 1 seed.

But owners will look at what Johnson has done with Goff. In a season when Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen — the future of the NFL (with elite arm talent, mobility and creativity) — are struggling, Goff has never looked so competent. He isn't an elite quarterback. He has his limitations, which we've seen at great length. Those limitations are why McVay bailed on Goff. So teams will want to know how Johnson did it and whether he can replicate that success with their QB and/or a QB in the draft.

New England will likely be among those teams, especially if Kraft finds himself drawn to someone different from Belichick, an older defensive guru.

Johnson is 37, trendy and offensive-focused.

Mike Vrabel, former Titans coach

Vrabel was unexpectedly fired by Tennessee on Tuesday. Titans GM Ran Carthon has denied reports he and Vrabel didn't get along, and there have been other reports owner Amy Adams Strunk fired the coach without input from Carthon.

And perhaps Vrabel was open to the departure in part because he had a sense that the Patriots' gig would open. As New England's 2023 season devolved, it felt like a question of when — not if — Belichick would be removed.

Titans fire Mike Vrabel: Where does he go next?

Vrabel blends the qualities of Mayo, a familiar face, and Johnson, the relative opposite of Belichick. As a player, Vrabel won three Super Bowls with the Patriots. He was the NFL Coach of the Year for 2021. His postseason record is 2-3, which is solid (though not exceptional) for a coach with six years of experience. His regular-season record is 54–45, again solid though not exceptional.

Vrabel's reputation is sound. He was respected at Tennessee and is revered at Ohio State, his alma mater — and he earned Kraft's respect in New England. That connection to Kraft, mixed with Vrabel's talent, might be how he ends up taking over for Belichick.

Bobby Slowik, Texans offensive coordinator

C.J. Stroud looks pretty dang good, doesn't he?

Much like we saw Ben Johnson make the most out of a veteran QB who many thought was already maxed out, Slowik has demonstrated the equally valuable skill of getting the most out of a rookie QB.

And therein lies the crux of his candidacy.

Of course, it's not just that. The Texans offensive line has been sensational, which has supported Stroud and led to a resurgence from veteran running back Devin Singletary. And even without a clearcut WR1, Slowik coached up young receivers Tank Dell and Nico Collins.

It's a really impressive offense that has overachieved. Because of that, Slowik will appeal to teams like New England that need that. And it would be fantastic if Slowik could turn the QB the Patriots will inevitably draft at No. 3 overall into the next Stroud.

Mike Macdonald, Ravens defensive coordinator

Macdonald is sort of the defensive version of Slowik or Johnson. Macdonald has developed an unstoppable defensive unit in Baltimore. And unlike Johnson, the Ravens are actually peaking at the right time.

The game looks like it's actually trending the way of defensive dominance after many years of offensive explosion. So might Kraft see the trend and stick with a defensive mind? Well, if Kraft is willing to think beyond the guys he knows (like Mayo and Vrabel), then the Patriots might actually find Macdonald even more compelling.

The Ravens allowed 16.5 points per game (first in NFL) and 301.4 total yards allowed (seventh). Macdonald has helped defensive tackle Justin Madubuike, safety Harrison Smith and linebackers Roquan Smith and Patrick Queen develop into some of the best players at their positions. Even Jadeveon Clowney and Kyle Van Noy have enjoyed resurgent seasons.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.