National Football League

How a Dolphins trade for Colts star Jonathan Taylor could upend RB market

Published Aug. 28, 2023 2:45 p.m. ET

Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor has flexed all of his leverage with tremendous strength to get either a contract extension, a trade or both.

It has felt, metaphorically speaking, like he'd have to make all 11 defenders miss in order for him to get what he wants. But, literally speaking, he has definitely made all 11 defenders miss before.

Taylor's situation is tough. He is dealing with an ankle injury, which he had surgically repaired and which has held him out of practice for most of the offseason. He might have had an elite season in 2021, but he had only an OK season in 2022. And those are just the disempowering factors specific to him. Not only is he in a valley on his greater career trajectory, but the running-back market is wholly bunk. There's a lot of nonsense surrounding the league's valuation of running backs, with the best and most productive backs struggling hugely to get the money they deserve.

Even with all the adversity facing Taylor, he has a chance to upend the running-back market as we know it.

The Colts granted him permission to seek a trade. The Dolphins are interested, according to multiple reports. If they land him, they'll almost definitely need to pay him big money on a contract extension.

And that massive new deal might just shift the financial trend that has gotten out of control over the past few years.

So why Taylor?

Well, let's start with those 2021 stats that I mentioned. His counting stats are impressive on their own. He had 332 carries for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns. He also had 40 receptions for 360 yards and two touchdowns. When it comes to advanced stats, it only gets better. He led the league with 1,272 yards after contact and 23 designed rushing attempts to go for more than 15 yards, per Pro Football Focus. He finished with the second-highest grade on PFF (87.1), behind only Damien Harris (87.8), who finished with 130 fewer carries.

Taylor also put up strong advanced stats in 2022, even with an injury and an unimpressive offensive line. In the seven games when Taylor played 75% or more of offensive snaps, he finished third in the NFL in rush attempts (21 per game), rushing yards (656) and broken tackles, and top-10 in average yards after contact, according to FTN data.

Why Jonathan Taylor would put Dolphins in a "Super Bowl class"

You can see why Taylor is a special running back. You can also see the strange set of circumstances that are interfering with him getting paid like a special running back.

That's where Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel could make things interesting.

The Dolphins have put multiple offers on the table for the Colts to consider, according to NFL insider Barry Jackson. Indy, meanwhile, wants a first-round pick or comparable value in the form of multiple picks and players.

I'll tell you now that the Colts are not getting what they're asking for. So here's the question: Is Indy genuinely willing to deal Taylor? I wonder if they granted him permission to seek a trade to prove to Taylor that he isn't worth what he thinks he's worth. (The Ravens did something similar when they gave Lamar Jackson the transition tag.) If The Colts let Taylor talk to other teams, he might find that everyone else is going to treat him like Indy is treating him. Just a theory.

That said, the Dolphins are interested and they're offering … something. What exactly? Unclear. But it's not a big enough offer for the Colts to bite yet. Meanwhile, McDaniel explained why he thinks the team values running backs, perhaps, at a higher level than the rest of the NFL.

"Let's just go simple math," McDaniel said last week. "It's a very physical game. There's let's say in an average season with 17 games now, let's say you have 1,200 plays on each side of the ball. How many of those plays are the running backs touching it? It's a valuable position that you have to have depth at.

"I got my feet wet really in NFL game planning in the run game, so it's near and dear to my heart."

Surprised Colts gave Jonathan Taylor permission to seek a trade?

At running back, the Dolphins currently have a group of injury-prone veterans in Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson and an injured rookie in De'Von Achane. It's nice to have depth. But the Dolphins lack a true RB1. Miami made an offer to free-agent Dalvin Cook before he signed with the New York Jets. As it stands, the Dolphins' top RB option, whoever it ends up being, might rank as the worst RB1 in the league. Taylor would take them from (almost) worst to (almost) first.

That radical level of improvement is likely the top reason why they're willing to give up draft compensation and financial compensation for Taylor. McDaniel's genuine care for the run game could also play a factor, though his playcalling indicates he values the passing game even more.

GM Chris Grier might also simply see a market opportunity. Running backs have never been cheaper. This particular running back is arguably the best in the NFL. Grier would be buying low on an elite player. And the Dolphins have the chance to massively upgrade a crucially important position right before they attempt a Super Bowl run in a division that features Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen and Bill Belichick.

It's a big opportunity for Taylor. It's a big opportunity for the Dolphins. Most of all, it might be a big opportunity for running backs everywhere. Because the market has clearly gone too far in the direction of undervaluing running backs. If Miami trades for Taylor, it would upend that trend — and perhaps begin the process of bringing the running-back market closer to equilibrium.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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