National Football League

In retaining Matt Eberflus, the Bears have set themselves up for a complicated 2025

Updated Jan. 10, 2024 5:40 p.m. ET

The Chicago Bears are staying true to themselves and their process over the last few years.

The franchise announced on Wednesday they will retain head coach Matt Eberflus but have fired offensive coordinator Luke Getsy and members of his staff.

This makes for an especially tricky situation with the question under center yet unanswered.

What do you do with Justin Fields?

Should they trade him and draft a new quarterback, they'd be repeating a cycle that has happened since 2017. The Bears traded up from No. 3 to No. 2 in the draft to select quarterback Mitchell Trubisky. They then fired their head coach, John Fox, a year later. Enter Matt Nagy, who was then allowed to trade up to draft Justin Fields at No. 11 overall in 2021. Nagy was fired a year later.

Eberflus will be entering his third year in 2024, with the opportunity to draft the best quarterback in the class — no trade-up required as the Bears own the No. 1 overall pick thanks to last year's trade with the Carolina Panthers.

But it could be Eberflus' last year if Chicago's win total doesn't improve in 2024. It means whoever comes in as offensive coordinator and defensive coordinator — after the sudden departure of Alan Williams in Week 3 — will have one season to make it all work.

That's an incredible amount of pressure in Chicago.

If the Bears trade Fields and draft the best quarterback in this year's class, presumably USC's Caleb Williams, and pair him with a new offensive coordinator, the hope is that he and Williams fit well, and immediately. With the rest of the roster in decent shape and the capital, both draft and monetary, the Bears would be able to shore up any holes that remain to insulate Williams as much as possible. Chicago could have success with a developing quarterback — or at least, that's what the Bears would bank on — while Williams is set up for individual and sustained success himself. That's the only thing that would save Eberflus from the danger of being let go after the 2024 season and the Bears once again repeating the cycle.

That's an incredible amount of pressure in Chicago.

Bears fire OC Luke Getsy, will retain HC Matt Eberflus

Or, the Bears keep Fields and make him start over in his third system in four years when Fields already hasn't shown the ability to pick up a new scheme quickly. That's hardly an indictment on Fields, though. These systems are incredibly complex and playing quarterback in the NFL is just plain hard. They've had the luxury of being able to evaluate Fields while he's on a team-controlled rookie contract. That isn't the case for much longer with Fields entering his fourth season in 2024. Chicago has to make a decision on his fifth-year option this offseason. Should they pick it up, they would owe Fields about $25 million in 2025, whether or not he shows he's the franchise player they want him to be next season. That also means a long-term contract follows. The going rate for a franchise quarterback is between $40 and $50 million these days. That's a lot of money to commit to a player the team isn't 100 percent confident in.

Or, the Bears don't pick up Fields' option but retain him anyway. They give him one year to jell with the new coordinator they bring in, but then also have the ability to start over at the quarterback position and the head coach position in the same year if it doesn't work out in 2024. However, if it does work out, threshold unknown, the Bears have now created a situation where they have to hand Fields a $40-$50 million contract a year early.

That's an incredible amount of pressure in Chicago.

Retaining Eberflus and making staff changes under him maybe should have always been the expectation for the Bears though, not only based on their recent history but because of what lies in their future. Chicago's ownership has never really shown a willingness to spend money, at least the kind of money it would take to lure a top head coaching candidate with a proven track record. But now there is a new stadium build on the horizon in Chicagoland. It's presumably the main reason for hiring Kevin Warren, the team's new president after Ted Phillips retired last year following 23 years of being at the helm and 30 years total with the organization. Warren oversaw the construction of the Minnesota Vikings' US Bank Stadium, widely considered one of the best in the NFL. The hope is that Warren can do the same for the Bears.

That will require a lot of money from the McCaskey family, wherever the team ends up building the site. An expensive head coach likely wasn't in the Bears' modest budget, as a result. Neither is a soon-to-be expensive quarterback, either, probably.

Should the Bears draft a replacement for Justin Fields?

Regardless, who do the Bears have to choose from at the coordinator level in what figures to be a limited candidate pool given all the parameters outlined above? What offensive coordinator is going to take the job knowing this could be a lame-duck year for Eberflus? There's virtually no stability Chicago can offer unless they extend Eberflus now to make the job more attractive. Having an opportunity to work with a bright young star at quarterback could also be a draw. But is that enough? Especially when the team ideally wants someone with a track record of developing the position?

The Bears have once again wedged themselves between a rock and a hard place. This entire situation will either perpetuate a mediocrity that has become synonymous with Chicago football or somehow break the cycle despite the process remaining the same.

What's the definition of insanity again?

Carmen Vitali covers the NFC North for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.