National Football League

Chiefs, Bucs loom as Super Bowl LVI favorites as 2021 NFL season begins

Updated Sep. 7, 2021 4:24 p.m. ET

By Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports NFL Analyst

Could we see a Super Bowl rematch next February in Los Angeles?

With Week 1 of the NFL regular season officially here, the Kansas City Chiefs and Tampa Bay Buccaneers open the campaign as the clear favorites in their respective conferences.

Those are just two of the top 10 storylines I’m going to be following as the new season begins Thursday night, with the Bucs hosting the Cowboys in Tampa.

Let's break it all down.

1. Who is taking down the Chiefs in the AFC?

The Chiefs are the heavy favorites to win the conference and head to Los Angeles for their third straight Super Bowl ⁠— and for good reason. They have the best quarterback-coach combination in the league, they have a talented roster in the right positions, and they do not lose football games.

It’s remarkable when you consider what they’ve done. The Chiefs lost the first game after Patrick Mahomes returned from a dislocated knee in Week 10 of the 2019 season. Since that game, they’ve won 24 of the 26 games Mahomes has started, including going 5-1 in the postseason.

When looking at those 24 wins, the Chiefs are rarely pressed throughout the game. It’s just complete domination.

With the Chiefs' biggest weakness fixed in a completely rebuilt offensive line, it’s difficult for me to find a team that I’d wager on to beat Kansas City at Arrowhead to win the AFC.

Chiefs to win the AFC: +260 (bet $10 to win $36 total)

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2. The Cleveland Browns' high expectations

Unlike years when Browns fans fabricated lofty expectations out of excitement — cough, cough, the 2019 season — the 2021 Browns are legit contenders to win the AFC for the first time in franchise history.

Cleveland's front office has drafted well and added pieces via free agency to form one of the best rosters in the NFL. They have the best offensive line in football, one of the best pass rushers in the game and a secondary that, on paper, should be able to slow down the Chiefs' passing game.

The question for me is quarterback Baker Mayfield and whether he’s elite enough to win the AFC and, eventually, the Super Bowl.

That's a factor as to why the Browns have not yet signed him to a long-term contract. This Kyle Shanahan-style offense has traditionally propelled average to slightly above average quarterbacks into elite players, only for those QBs to return back to earth shortly after reaching their peaks.

Nonetheless, I think the Browns are real and will win the AFC North.

Browns to win the AFC North: +145 (bet $10 to win $24.50 total)

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3. Mac Jones, the starter

The New England Patriots surprised the NFL world last week when they released former starting quarterback Cam Newton in favor of Jones, their first-round pick out of Alabama.

The rookie was successful in preseason games, but a majority of his reps came with the second-string offense against a second- or third-string defense. However, Jones took advantage of a small window of opportunity just last week, when Newton had to be away for five days because of a COVID-19 testing issue.

With Newton gone, Jones took command of the offense in joint practices against the New York Giants and crushed it.

I love when players get a small window of opportunity and take advantage. It’s how most of us who aren’t privileged to play because of our draft slot make the team and have a long career. More power to Jones.

But where does this leave the Patriots? I wagered on New England going over its win total (currently at 9.5 wins at FOX Bet) and still feel good about it. The Patriots are a talented roster after Bill Belichick used free agency to correct some of his draft misses.

The defense looked outstanding in limited preseason action. The offense will be heavy on the offensive line and run game, but even if it’s conservative, Jones has shown the ability to push the ball downfield, both in the preseason and in college.

Plus, Belichick can still coach. We have to separate Belichick the coach from Belichick the general manager. Last season, he coached a bad roster — due to lack of talent and opt-outs — to a 7-9 record. He can still coach, and I think he knows Jones can handle the QB role.

Patriots to win more than 9.5 games: -118 (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)

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4. Does Chicago Bears coach Matt Nagy have any idea what he’s doing?

The time to play Justin Fields is now. End of story.

Everyone knows it — except, apparently, the Bears coach.

The Bears are planning to roll out Andy Dalton for the season, which at best is a self-preservation move by Nagy. If Dalton is the best version of himself, the Bears could sneak into the seventh and final playoff spot. But what actual good does that do the team? Dalton is on a one-year deal and will not be the quarterback next season.

It’s a waste of a season to play the Red Rifle. Start Fields in Week 1, and show you are the right coach for him.

Let Fields learn, grow, struggle and evolve his game in 2021. Show improvement each quarter of the season so that heading into 2022, the team and fan base are pumped for the future.

And spare me the idea that Fields isn’t ready. Maybe he isn’t. So what? Was Justin Herbert ready? No. But he was thrown into the fire and performed well.

You might say, "Well, Geoff, the Chiefs sat Mahomes, and Nagy was there for that." Good for Nagy. I’m glad he got to witness a situation that was completely different. Alex Smith was entering his fifth season as the Chiefs' quarterback, having made the playoffs in three of the four previous seasons with a roster far better than the Bears have. These situations aren’t comparable.

Just play the rookie from Ohio State. It’s simple, Matt Nagy.

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5. San Francisco's QB rotation

Unlike Nagy, San Francisco 49ers coach Shanahan understands that the window for playing a first-round quarterback you traded up to acquire is now.

While Trey Lance is less ready to start than the 49ers would like, it appears he’s going to play often early in the season. In the preseason, specifically the final game against Las Vegas, Shanahan rotated starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo and backup Lance, sometimes every other play.

Lance provides the 49ers the opportunity to get the quarterback on the move and build packages around his legs. That forces defensive coordinators to spend time preparing for both quarterbacks, which spreads their game-planning time much thinner. However, we rarely see quarterback rotation in the NFL.

What’s the line? "When you have two quarterbacks, you have none."

That is the truth. Limited practice reps during the season make it difficult to rotate reps with two players. Preparation for stressful situations, such as third down and two minutes, could be hurt by rotating reps. As a player, I’d prefer to have the same quarterback each play so that when things break down on the field, we can work through it together.

But Shanahan knows the clock is ticking on Lance’s cheap rookie deal, and getting him on the field for these packages could speed up his learning curve and allow him to play sooner rather than later.

Unlike the Bears, the 49ers have a chance to win their division and make a run to the NFC Championship this season if their quarterback stays healthy.

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6. Tracking first-round rookies

The first round of the 2021 NFL Draft was the most unique in NFL history, with at least eight players opting out of the entire 2020 season or parts of it. It's going to be fascinated to track their progress throughout the year.

Los Angeles Chargers rookie tackle Rashawn Slater has looked great early on, while rookies Ja’Marr Chase and Penei Sewell have struggled. I'm curious to revisit these players at the end of the season to see if the time away from the game in 2020 impacted their rookie seasons.

7. The shot

As expected, vaccination status was part of the equation when it came to making NFL rosters. The quiet part was said out loud by Urban Meyer, the only NFL personnel member to confirm that vaccination was part of the process.

The clearest example of an unvaccinated player losing his job and roster spot was Newton, who reportedly is not vaccinated and had to miss multiple days. Jones won the job in those days.

I strongly believe that if Newton doesn't miss those days, he would be starting Sunday against the Miami Dolphins. Additionally, there are a few reasons why keeping Newton as a backup wasn’t a workable option, and one of those was his not being vaccinated. It’s a reality for more than Newton, but he’s the most high-profile example.

This will continue to determine roster status for players around the league, even if teams won't admit it.

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8. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers

I’m not going to relitigate the offseason between these two parties.

Rodgers showed up to camp, and he’s ready to guide this offense. The Packers once again have a roster good enough to contend for the NFC, and if they break through and play in Los Angeles for the Super Bowl, is Rodgers really leaving? No.

I think a season in which the Packers win, then including Rodgers in offseason roster preparation, could lead to a happy marriage for both parties in 2022.

If the Packers are unwilling to budge on including Rodgers in more of those conversations, however, then Rodgers is surely gone. If the season goes to you-know-what, Rodgers is gone.

Suffice it to say, I’ll be watching Green Bay and Rodgers this season.

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9. The Dallas Cowboys

I feel obligated to write about America’s Team, even as they are part of the most boring season of "Hard Knocks" in history.

But boring is good. Boring is what wins. And the Cowboys are bound to do some winning this season.

Dak Prescott, hopefully with his shoulder fully healed, should be fantastic in his return from an ankle injury this season. The Cowboys' offensive line is healthy, and they might have the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL. On defense, it would be difficult for Dallas to be any worse than last season.

If the Cowboys get a middle-of-the-pack defense with a high-powered offense, they are running away with the NFC East.

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10. Run it back, squad

Tom Brady is entering roughly his 257th season in the NFL after winning the Super Bowl with the Buccaneers in February.

All jokes aside, what makes this title defense different from his others is the entire roster is returning for a repeat run. Everyone is back, plus the Bucs added first-round pass-rusher Joe Tryon, who appears to be a stud.

How is this going to work? Will the team stay just as motivated? Is Brady ever going to look his age? Unlike most Super Bowl champs, the Bucs finished second in their division last season, so they have an easier schedule than the eight division winners. They are clearly the favorites to win the NFC.

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Geoff Schwartz played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. He is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.