National Football League

Lamar Jackson will be NFL MVP. How much regret should QB-needy teams feel?

Published Jan. 16, 2024 12:20 p.m. ET

It's hard to believe right now, but there have been multiple points in Lamar Jackson's career when no one has seemed to want him.

It's hard to believe right now because he is the odds-on favorite to win the NFL MVP. He is arguably the best quarterback on the planet, and that makes him perhaps the most valuable commodity — both in fiscal and team-building terms — in the league. (Arguments could also be made for Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and a few others.)

But Jackson has hit multiple points in his career where the bulk of the league has evaluated him and rebutted with ‘no, thanks.'

The first time was back in the 2018 NFL draft, when 24 teams didn't take him and quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Allen and Josh Rosen went off the board before Jackson.

The second time was in March when the Baltimore Ravens used the transition tag in their fight over leverage and a contract dispute. There was a running list of teams that made it clear they would not make a play for Lamar Jackson.

The New England Patriots were out on him because of the money he wanted, per a source. The Atlanta Falcons made it clear they were not pursuing Jackson. Surely, the Washington Commanders? Nope.

The Panthers and Raiders were the only ones to even inquire about Jackson, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. But even those two eventually made it clear they were out, per multiple reports. The Ravens' team website kept a running tally of who was out on the QB.

The quarterback-needy teams let it leak that they didn't want to add Jackson, and so the quarterback dealt with the transition tag — which Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert didn't have to contend with. Jackson eventually signed a long-term deal with the Ravens: a five-year, $260 million contract.

It was a good deal. It didn't break any records, which most QBs in Jackson's situation would have done. Jackson doesn't have an agent, so he negotiated on his own — and didn't have to pay an agent fee. The Ravens decreased their offer accordingly, so he probably still made the same as if he'd had an agent.

"In the end, it was two people. I was dealing with Lamar Jackson, the agent. It wasn't always easy," Ravens executive vice president and general manager Eric DeCosta told reporters. "I'd rather deal with Lamar Jackson, the player, I think. There were really no other factors involved."

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Jackson's window on the transition tag was the NFL's opportunity to go get him.

The transition tag is a tricky beast. If a team wanted Lamar, they could follow the following steps.

Make an offer
Wait to see if Jackson signed that offer
Wait to see if the Ravens refused to match that offer
If all those things happened in that order, the interested team would then trade two first-round picks in exchange for Jackson and ink him to the deal he had signed.

It's no small sum of money or draft assets. But it's also perfectly reasonable, given the market value of elite quarterbacks — and elite players in general. Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson underwent processes on the trade market. The Tyreek Hill trade looked a lot like the transition tag. So did the trades for edge Khalil Mack and tackle Laremy Tunsil.

Anyone saying that it wasn't possible or wasn't reasonable is kidding themselves.

It has been done.

And it will be done again.

Though with the Rodgers, Wilson and Watson deals looking like different degrees of busts, it might take some time. And there was risk involved with Jackson. I'll acknowledge that. He was dealing with a knee injury and was coming off a statistically down season. But it was clear he was held back by a young and limited supporting cast and a bad offensive system, which was why the Ravens brought in a new coordinator and drafted a receiver in the first round. I'll add that much of the criticism surrounding Jackson was applicable to Rodgers — but he moved relatively painlessly.

Back then, Jackson was an elite QB that at least 20 NFL teams would be lucky to have. Right now, he's a quarterback that 30 teams would be lucky to have.

And that begs the question of why all of those teams were rushing to rule out their pursuit of Lamar. Because if you look at the Falcons, Commanders, Patriots and Raiders, you'd see teams that can only pray that they'll get anyone near the caliber of player in the NFL draft this offseason. And even then, it'll take them years to develop that player — and the team around him.

Lamar made all the sense in the world when he was on the transition tag. His price tag, if anything, might have been reduced by that tag — which might have hampered the team's willingness to spend because they were also giving up picks. That actually makes it an opportunity for other teams. It seemed like the type of moment where a shrewd negotiator like Belichick might swoop in and make a godfather offer. But no one did.

I get that the Ravens could have matched any offer that came in. But that's all the more reason to bid Baltimore up. Tie up their cap space. It was the opportunity for the other 31 teams to make the Ravens uncomfortable with how much they were spending on Lamar. But, again, no one did. No one took the opportunity.

And it must make them sick watching him this season.

"I want to throw for like 6,000 yards with the weapons we have," Lamar Jackson said back in May after signing the extension. "I'm not an individual awards type of guy or a stat watcher, I just want to do that. No one's ever done it and I feel like we have the weapons to do it."

He finished the year with 3,678 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and seven interceptions while playing in 16 games. He added 821 rushing yards and five touchdowns. He continued to evolve as a quarterback and got his team to the No. 1 seed in the AFC. As Lamar said, he doesn't care about his MVP candidacy. He cares much more about the Super Bowl trophy. And he's on track to hoist it. With two weeks of rest (after being inactive Week 18 and on a bye this weekend), he is in as good a position as anyone to get into the Super Bowl.

Regardless of whether he does, he has already proved himself more valuable than the contract he signed. And it's embarrassing that so many evaluators whiffed on pursuing him.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.