National Football League

Lamar vs. Tua? The Ravens-Dolphins matchup actually comes down to defense

Updated Dec. 27, 2023 5:56 p.m. ET

Vic Fangio and Mike Macdonald might be the most important men in the biggest game of Week 17. That's because Fangio, the Miami Dolphins defensive coordinator, and Macdonald, the Baltimore Ravens DC, have the hardest jobs in the NFL. At least this week.

For Fangio, it'll be about stopping Lamar Jackson.

For Macdonald, it'll be about stopping the combination of Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Raheem Mostert.

Don't get me wrong. It's extremely fun to talk about these two incredible offenses — and to give credit to their engineers, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel and Ravens OC Todd Monken.

Because of Jackson and Monken, the Ravens have the fourth-best offensive DVOA in the NFL (18.3%) — an advanced stat that measures overall efficiency. Baltimore is fourth in points per game (27.8) and fifth in yards per game (372.1).

Because of McDaniel, Hill and Tua, the Dolphins have the third-best offensive DVOA (24.8%). They're also first in points per game (30.9) and yards per game (411.5).

These two offenses are radically different schematically — because their quarterbacks are opposites — but both offenses are among the NFL's elite. Meanwhile, their two defenses don't compare in the same way statistically. Baltimore is right at the top of the league in basically every category. Miami is middle of the road in just about every category.

But the way I see it: These two defenses are likely to decide this game. And they both have an interesting storyline after big wins in Week 16.

For the Dolphins, it's about building something better than what they did against the Cowboys

I don't mean to take away from Miami's work against Dallas. It was quite a strong performance from the Dolphins defense. There were simply times when quarterback Dak Prescott outplayed the entire Miami unit. His final drive was a masterpiece of desperate quarterback play.

There was the completion he threw to Michael Gallup with Duke Riley whipping Prescott to the ground as he released the ball.

And then there was the touchdown to receiver Brandin Cooks, who pulled in a ridiculous catch despite excellent coverage. Prescott placed the ball to perfection.

Good execution from Miami. Bad result.

But, of course, that ignores the things the Dolphins did wrong on that drive, which — most notably — included two holding penalties on the same fourth-down play at the 4-yard line. That gave the Cowboys a new set of downs in the low red zone.

The Dolphins defense also allowed an 11-yard pass to CeeDee Lamb on fourth down.

Miami's defense had a few chances to win the game for the team. The unit couldn't get it done. The offense bailed out the defense with a game-winning drive. That's good complementary football, in a sense. And it's progress, because the Dolphins defense was able to keep the offense in the game (unlike in Miami's loss to the Buffalo Bills) and the offense was able to pull off a game-winning drive (unlike in Miami's loss to the Kansas City Chiefs).

It's just that the defense needs to step up to a different level.

There's no better time than the present.

This week, the Dolphins can clinch an AFC East title while bettering their chances of getting the No. 1 seed in the AFC. Miami needs to put it all together in time for the playoffs when they'll likely see the Ravens again — if the Dolphins can get to the AFC Championship Game.

If Miami slips up?

The Dolphins might just have to beat the Bills in Week 18 in a battle for the AFC title. And if there's any QB who's like Jackson, it's Josh Allen. Much like the Ravens' prep for the 49ers should apply to the Dolphins, some of what the Dolphins learn by preparing for Jackson might help with Allen. They're both throwing QBs who completely open up their offense when they run the football. And when a defense prepares for them, they must focus not just on containing their tremendous arm talent — but also about containing them to the pocket. Because once they break the pocket, their creativity comes into play and anything is possible.

The Dolphins are in for it. It was clear that these three weeks (against Dallas, Baltimore and Buffalo) were going to be the toughest stretch for Miami's defense. The Dolphins proved themselves against the Cowboys. But they better hope their defense was just getting started.

For the Ravens, it's about doing much of what they did against the 49ers

Baltimore left little doubt that they were the NFL's best team when they throttled the San Francisco 49ers last week. The Ravens effectively broke Brock Purdy, who went from throwing four touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Arizona Cardinals to zero touchdowns and four interceptions against Baltimore. (He also suffered a shoulder injury.)

It was among the most impressive defensive performances of the season.

"We play a brand of football people don't want to play," Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen said after Baltimore's 33-19 victory over San Francisco. "Everybody want to be out here playing cute, playing basketball on grass, and we ain't with that.

"You can do all that stuff; you're just gonna get hit in the mouth every play, honestly. We could care less about all the pretty stuff that you can do, gimmick stuff. … That's how we're going to come out and hit people in the mouth."

That could spell bad news for Miami. Just look at what it did to an offense like San Francisco's.

The performance would be hard to replicate, in part because of how many lucky bounces went the Ravens' way (with two of Purdy's interceptions going off the hands of his receivers). But if there were any team against which Baltimore could try to replicate their game plan, it would be against the Dolphins, who are built more like the 49ers than basically anyone except the Los Angeles Rams.

The biggest thing the Dolphins and 49ers have in common is schematic overlap. McDaniel's offensive system originated in Kyle Shanahan's offense. That's where McDaniel was the offensive coordinator before joining the Dolphins. McDaniel has altered his scheme to work around Hill and Tagovailoa. But when thinking about how to stop both offenses, it's quite similar.

The Ravens need to build doubt in Tagovialoa, like they did with Purdy. There are a number of ways to do that: speedy pass-rushing, jamming receivers at the line of scrimmage, run-defending that's strong enough to limit the amount of defenders in the box.

The Dolphins offense is predicated upon timing. Tua Tagovailoa has the fastest time to throw in the NFL — it's extremely difficult for the rush to disrupt him. But if the Ravens can interfere with his throwing windows or prevent the receivers from getting to their spots, then Tagovailoa will hesitate.

And those slivers of hesitation can bring Miami's offense crumbling down.

Prior to joining FOX Sports as the AFC East reporter, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.