2023 College Football bowl predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
College football bowl season is here!
I will share my best bets and gambling nuggets (Bear Bytes) with you throughout the postseason in this space. So, if you are looking to throw a few bucks down on the big games, I've got you covered.
On a side note, a new episode of my digital gambling show and podcast will be posted every Thursday. The college football-focused episodes — presented by Big Noon Kickoff — will be released on Thursdays, with the NFL-themed episodes dropping on Fridays.
Let's get this thing on track with some winners during the postseason.
Here are my favorite wagers for bowl games.
Last Week: 1-1 Season: 44-54-1
All Times ET
Armed Forces Bowl
James Madison University vs. Air Force, 3:30 p.m., Dec. 23, ABC/ESPN+
The Dukes didn't get that conference title and a berth into a bigger bowl but still got an opportunity to play in a bowl after fighting for it all year long.
It's still an opportunity for JMU to play Air Force, a team that gets a ton of respect — as is the case any time you play a service academy. But this is an Air Force team that had injuries at the quarterback position and completely collapsed down the stretch. So I wonder about Air Force's motivation, since the Falcons had a great record and a great start to the season before that collapse. Maybe the Falcons were anticipating being in a New Year's Six bowl, but instead they're here in this game and as slight underdogs to a JMU team that lost its head coach. I do think James Madison will take this game very seriously. And if the Dukes can get up in this game, we might see a little bit of a diminished effort from Air Force and this thing might snowball.
PICK: James Madison (-1) to win by more than 1 point
Las Vegas Bowl
Utah vs. Northwestern, 7:30 p.m. Dec. 23, ABC/ESPN+
Typically, come bowl season, there isn't any safer thing to do than back Kyle Whittingham's Utah team. However, with the amount of injuries they have on the roster and the uncertainty at the quarterback position, I have a really hard time backing the normally reliable Utes.
Northwestern gives off all the vibes of a team that you want to back. The Wildcats are a team that overachieved this year. They did not go to a bowl last year, so they should certainly be excited about taking part in this bowl. This is a really good opportunity to bet Northwestern, not only plus the points but on the moneyline. Roughly 78% of the underdogs that cover bowl games also win outright. So not only play Northwestern plus the points, but play a little bit on the moneyline as well.
PICK: Northwestern (+6.5) to lose by fewer than 6.5 points (or win outright)
PICK: Northwestern (+198 moneyline) to win outright
First Responder Bowl
Texas State vs. Rice, 5:30 p.m., Dec. 26, ESPN/ESPN+
Chances for Texas State to win eight games in a season don't come along very often.
This is a great chance to get a win in a bowl game. This is against a Rice team that's obviously shorthanded at the quarterback position. I would expect T.J. Finley and the Bobcat offense to go out there and put up a big number, and I ultimately expect Rice to have difficulty keeping up. And I think the Bobcats get that bowl win and post their eighth win of the season.
PICK: Texas State (-5) to win by more than 5 points
Duke's Mayo Bowl
West Virginia vs. North Carolina, 5:30 p.m. Dec. 27, ESPN
If nothing else, this is a play anticipating Drake Maye opting out and seeing this number run to around -6.
North Carolina has not been good at all the second half of the season and while the game is in Charlotte, I can't see a whole lot of excitement here for a team that was 6-0 and in the top 10 and again collapsed down the stretch.
There will probably be other opt-outs besides Maye, I would imagine. WVU has been a surprise this season and with a chance to win nine games a season after Neal Brown’s job was in jeopardy, the ‘Eers have much more motivation to play here.
PICK: West Virginia (-3 at time of pick) to win by more than 3 points
Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers vs. Miami, 2:15 p.m. Dec. 28, ESPN
Bowl season has turned into "guess the motivation, along with opt-out" information. It’s been a while since Miami won a bowl game, but the Hurricanes don't have a QB and will see a bunch of other departures in the portal.
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A winter’s afternoon in New York at a baseball stadium doesn’t feel like an optimum bowl spot for the team from South Florida, which will have issues moving the ball against a Rutgers defense which did a pretty good job against Michigan and Ohio State.
PICK: Rutgers (+2.5 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points (or win outright)
Pop-Tarts Bowl
No. 18 North Carolina State vs. No. 25 Kansas State, 5:45 p.m. Dec. 28, ESPN
When looking for teams to back in bowls, so much of it is about perceived motivation.
It looks like we have two teams on the opposite spectrum as the Wildcats have been hit hard by losses in the portal, including quarterback Will Howard, while the Wolfpack have been picking up players and seem to have a ton of momentum as they are on a five-game win streak.
NC State is seeking an elusive, and historic, 10-win season. Coach Dave Doeren will have the Pack dialed in to pull off the minor upset.
PICK: North Carolina State (+3) to lose by 3 points or fewer (or win outright)
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
Ole Miss vs. Penn State, noon Dec. 30, ESPN
I don’t expect the Rebels to have many — if any — opt-outs. And I get the sense after a no-show in last year's 42-25 bowl loss to Texas Tech, Lane Kiffin & Co. will want a better showing.
They get just the matchup for that — a defense that should have a few opt-outs, as well as its best offensive lineman, and an offense that’s struggled mightily against anyone good this season.
This number should close south of 3, I would imagine, so I’ll grab the 4.5 at FanDuel now.
PICK: Ole Miss (+4.5 at time of pick) to lose by fewer than 4.5 points (or win outright)
Completed Games
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
California vs. Texas Tech, 9:15 p.m. Dec. 16, ESPN
In the last three games, the Red Raiders allowed 207, 238 and 302 yards on the ground. It also allowed 272 to Kansas State in mid-October. After having 57 points hung on them by Texas, who knows if the Red Raiders will be dialed in here.
The Bears have changes on the coaching staff, with offensive coordinator Jake Spavital going to Baylor. But with running back Jaydn Ott, I like Cal's chances to have success on the ground and knock off Tech, which has had a disappointing season.
The Pac-12 has struggled in bowls recently, but this seems like a manageable spot.
PICK: California (+3) to lose by 3 points or fewer (or win outright)
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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