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Michigan vs. Penn State, Utah vs. Washington: What we're watching in Week 11
No. 3 Michigan has run through its schedule as if it were a series of scrimmages — which isn't far from the truth.
But everything changes on Saturday when the 9-0 Wolverines head to Happy Valley to take on No. 10 Penn State (8-1).
Statistically, everything lines up in Michigan's favor.
The Wolverines are crushing opponents by an average of 34 points per game, the best margin in the country.
They are the only FBS team in the country to win every game this season by at least 20 points, and the only team scoring more than 40 PPG while allowing fewer than 10 PPG.
But not one part of that résumé has been compiled against a ranked team, making Saturday's game all the more intriguing.
The Nittany Lions have won seven straight home games and have the No. 3 rushing offense in the Big Ten at 173.2 YPG.
Still, Penn State is just 3-16 against top 10 teams under James Franklin, and Michigan leads the all-time series, 26-10.
Michigan vs. Penn State preview: Big Ten implications on the line
How will it all play out?
FOX Sports college football experts Michael Cohen, Laken Litman and RJ Young share what they'll be looking for in this game, plus a host of other great Week 11 matchups on Saturday.
No. 3 Michigan at No. 10 Penn State (Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)
Michael Cohen: The last time Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy played on a stage this grand was last year's national semifinal against Texas Christian. And despite his 343 passing yards and three total touchdowns, he handled the setting quite poorly.
In the biggest moment of his young career, McCarthy, then a true sophomore, threw a pick-six on his third pass of the game and later watched the Horned Frogs return another interception for a touchdown to take a 34-16 lead with 2:52 remaining in the third quarter. He and the rest of Michigan's offense fell behind immediately by opening the game with six failed possessions in seven tries: a turnover on downs, an interception, a punt, a field goal, a lost fumble and two more punts. By that point, the Wolverines faced an 18-point deficit in a game they wound up losing, 51-45, after a frantic fourth-quarter comeback fell short.
That the game ended on yet another Michigan mistake felt fitting on an afternoon dripping with missed opportunities. Facing fourth-and-10 from his own 25-yard line with 35 seconds remaining, McCarthy had a miscommunication with center Olu Oluwatimi when lined up in the shotgun. The ball got snapped before McCarthy was ready, and it caromed off his thigh and into a pile of traffic for a turnover on downs that allowed the Horned Frogs to kneel out the clock.
Stealing a page from head coach Jim Harbaugh's playbook, McCarthy ducked out of the postgame news conference early and left his teammates to answer most of the difficult questions about another loss in the CFP semifinals. But he and everyone else knew the performance wasn't good enough when Michigan needed him most.
Can McCarthy flip the script against Penn State's elite defense?
Laken Litman: The College Football Playoff selection committee made Penn State the No. 10 team in the country in its second set of rankings this week. This after the Nittany Lions beat up on unranked Maryland over the weekend, 51-15, and quarterback Drew Allar had four touchdowns.
Meanwhile, No. 14 Missouri dropped two spots after losing to No. 2 Georgia by nine points. While that's neither here nor there, the committee has decided that this weekend's Big Ten East showdown between Michigan and Penn State will be a top-10 matchup. This is helpful to the embattled Wolverines, who could end up with a top-10 win on the road in a hostile environment under their belt.
Michigan's players are motivated by the swirling controversy surrounding their program: from the NCAA's investigation into sign stealing to the battle with the Big Ten to a potential impending suspension for Jim Harbaugh. On the field, however, all Michigan has done is win, and the Wolverines are 9-0 heading into Happy Valley. McCarthy has vaulted into the Heisman Trophy conversation. He completed 24 of 37 passes for a season-high 335 yards in a 41-13 win over Purdue last week. He didn't throw a touchdown in the game, but that was OK because running back Blake Corum had three of the team's five rushing TDs.
Corum, meanwhile, leads the country with 16 rushing touchdowns this season, which will be an interesting matchup to watch as he goes up against the Nittany Lions' top-ranked run defense (allowing just 60.3 yards per game while giving up just six touchdowns on the season).
The teams are 3-3 in their last six matchups. A year ago, Michigan pummeled Penn State 41-17 in Ann Arbor. Can the Nittany Lions pull off the upset and shake up the Big Ten and CFP races?
Joel Klatt breaks down J.J. McCarthy's success this season
RJ Young: As much as PSU would like this game to be about stopping McCarthy and scoring on a defense that's giving up fewer than seven a game, it’s bigger than that for PSU fans in Happy Valley this weekend. This game has less to do with Michigan — which has been dominant — and more to do with Penn State, which has only been dominant against ranked teams when those teams are ranked outside the top 10.
It’s one thing for James Franklin to be 3-16 against top 10 teams. It’s quite another when looking at a Penn State team that has consistently proven it can beat anybody but Ohio State and Michigan. Even in 2023, the Nittany Lions dispatched Pac-12 champ and No. 8-ranked Utah in the Rose Bowl in January.
But against those two beasts in the Big Ten East, the Nittany Lions have been as ferocious as newborn kittens.
How Penn State's QB Drew Allar can improve his consistency
No. 18 Utah at No. 5 Washington (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX)
Laken: The CFP selection committee still doesn't think Washington is worthy of a spot in the top 4. All the No. 5 Huskies have done is look impressive each week, especially in wins over Oregon and USC, but the committee is going to make this team prove it each week until it becomes an undefeated Pac-12 champion.
That road continues at home vs. Utah. Heisman Trophy frontrunner Michael Penix Jr. is coming off a stellar performance against the Trojans in which he completed 22-of-30 passes for 256 yards, two touchdowns and added another rushing score. Running back Dillon Johnson had a jaw-dropping game, running for 256 yards and four touchdowns. Granted, this was against USC's defense and Utah boasts the fifth-best run defense in FBS (81.2 YPG), but showing off like that has to count for something in a high-stakes game in November.
The Huskies have the luxury of not being out of the CFP race even with a loss to the Utes. They would still likely face Oregon in a rematch for the conference title, and depending on what happens there, the one-loss conference champion would still be a candidate for the four-team playoff.
RJ: I expect a closely contested game featuring the Pac-12’s best pass offense against the Pac-12’s best pass defense.
The game-deciding factor, though, will likely be which team’s lesser unit plays best. With Barnes at quarterback, the Utes are capable of scoring with UW. They showed that with 34 points scored against USC and 55 against Arizona State, to cite two of their last three games.
However, Washington doesn’t need much to put up 40 offensively. With a 9-0 record and a win against Oregon at home, the Huskies have earned the right to be favored against the two-time defending Pac-12 champs. I just don’t know if the Huskies’ 124th-ranked pass defense got the memo. If UW gives up 38 to Utah — or the average teams have scored against UW — that doesn’t bode well for their chances of winning this game, even in Seattle.
Is there an upset brewing for No. 5 Washington vs. No. 18 Utah?
Michael: Consider the statistical output from Utah quarterback Bryson Barnes over his last three games: He completed 19 of 28 passes for 161 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions in a win over Arizona State, which now ranks 103rd nationally in scoring defense; he completed 15 of 29 passes for 136 yards, zero touchdowns and two interceptions in a blowout loss to Oregon, which now ranks 11th in scoring defense; he completed 14 of 23 passes for 235 yards, three touchdowns and one interception in a win over USC, which recently fired its defensive coordinator and now ranks 124th in scoring defense.
So which player is he? The numbers suggest Barnes, who is playing in place of the injured Cam Rising, is more than capable of moving the football and reaching the end zone against suspect defenses, but struggles when there's elite opposition across the line of scrimmage. The Huskies land somewhere in the middle of those two poles, but they're trending in the wrong direction. While they're tied for 47th overall in scoring defense at 23 points per game, they've surrendered 30 points or more in three of their last four games and four of their last six. It's a worrying regression that, so far, has been papered over by the explosiveness of Washington's offense led by Penix.
Is this the week a crumbling defense might come back to haunt the Huskies?
West Virginia at No. 17 Oklahoma (7 p.m. ET on FOX)
RJ: With the loss to Oklahoma State last weekend in "final Bedlam," the Cowboys succeeded in dousing the Sooners’ chance of playing in the College Football Playoff and cratering their chance of playing for the Big 12 title in their last year in the league. However, the chance to finish with a 10-win season and a bid to a New Year’s Six Bowl is still very much within OU’s reach.
After losing to OSU and Kansas in the same season for the first time since 1997, the Sooners have to get back to winning against a Mountaineers team that is just as capable of taking that musket and beating them to death as the Pokes were of pistol-whipping them last weekend.
It’s clear that the Sooners miss Danny Stutsman on defense, but offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s play-calling will need to be spot-on and near-perfect if the Sooners expect to upend a WVU program seeking back-to-back wins against OU for the first time — and perhaps last time — since joining the Big 12.
Michael: Earlier this week, Oklahoma wide receiver Drake Stoops told reporters the Sooners still have plenty to play for despite suffering back-to-back losses that sunk them to 17th in the latest AP Poll. Part of what Stoops was referring to is pride — the pride he takes in Oklahoma as the son of legendary former OU coach Bob Stoops, the pride he takes in spending 10 hours in the football facility every day, the pride he takes in being a sixth-year senior and leader for a program that is still adjusting to second-year coach Brent Venables.
Another part of Stoops' message was in reference to the ongoing possibility of qualifying for the Big 12 title game. Even after losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, the Sooners are one of five teams tied for third in the standings at 4-2 behind conference leaders Texas and Oklahoma State, both of whom are 5-1 in league play. So while they no longer control their own destiny, there are still plenty of ways the Sooners can make it to Arlington, Texas, if certain results go their way.
What's gone is the chance to win the ultimate prize with a berth in this year's College Football Playoff. No two-loss team has ever reached the national semifinals, and Oklahoma lacks the kind of marquee non-conference win that would enhance their résumé in the unlikely event that all hell breaks loose for the pack of teams ahead of them. Will Stoops' teammates match his passion and purpose now that the pipe dream of a national championship is gone?
Laken: Oklahoma has to do something here. After back-to-back losses to Kansas and Oklahoma State, a shot at the CFP is out of reach. But in order to salvage the season and not go into a tailspin — the Sooners fell eight spots in this week's CFP rankings — they must win this one at home.
OU quarterback Dillon Gabriel got off to a hot start this season and was in the Heisman Trophy discussion after his performance against Texas in October. In the loss to the Jayhawks two weeks ago, Gabriel completed 14-of-19 passes for 171 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. He was better in the Bedlam loss, going 26-of-37 for 344 yards, a touchdown and an interception. While those defeats certainly were not on him, Oklahoma has to be better as a team to finish the season strong.
Dillon Gabriel, Oklahoma STUNNED against Oklahoma State
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia (7 p.m. ET)
Michael: This has the look and feel of a game that might be far more attractive on paper than it will be on the field. On paper, Saturday night's clash in Athens, Georgia, pits an undefeated and largely untested Georgia team against its stiffest opponent of the season. The Rebels, who are 8-1 overall and ninth in the latest College Football Playoff rankings, own a quality non-conference win over No. 23 Tulane, and their only loss came six weeks ago against Alabama, a team now playing as well as anyone in the country. Everything, it would seem, is in place for a rollicking SEC showdown with legitimate national title implications.
But is this Ole Miss team really any different from the recent Ole Miss teams that have crumbled on the biggest stage? Because those Ole Miss teams are 0-3 against top-five opponents under head coach Lane Kiffin, who has just four 10-win seasons in 11 years as a Division I head coach, and they're 0-10 against top-five opponents since 2015. Last year's Ole Miss team began with an identical 8-1 record before dropping four straight games to end the season in deflating fashion. It's hard to imagine Saturday being any different when the Rebels have already exhausted some luck by emerging unscathed from four consecutive one-possession games.
Laken: Things could get interesting in the CFP race should Ole Miss do the unthinkable and upset the reigning champs in Athens. Would the selection committee consider the Rebels if they beat Georgia and finish 11-1? There's still time for chaos!
But that seems unlikely with the way the Bulldogs have been playing, especially without star tight end Brock Bowers. First-year starting quarterback Carson Beck has been solid. He completed 21 of 32 passes for 254 yards and two touchdowns in UGA's 30-21 win over Missouri last week and has quietly been one of the most consistent and reliable passers in the country this season. Through nine games (all wins), he's completed 72% of his passes for 2,716 yards and 16 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
RJ: The last time these two met, Ole Miss beat UGA 45-14. That was 2016. But UGA had won the other 10 out of the last 11 games between them. Ole Miss is also 0-3 against top 5 teams under Kiffin.
Jaxson Dart, Quinshon Judkins and Tre Harris are gonna have to lead an offense that just decides to drop 40 at Sanford and them Georgia boys their sons. Put a little fox in their sea of red. UGA’s 26-straight wins rank second only to 1978-1980 Bama. This UGA team is less about being dominant and more about hunting the three-peat. But if Ole Miss is as good as they think they are — catching just one loss so far to an Alabama team that grows better with each passing week — perhaps they can be the team to do what none has since October 2019 — beat UGA in Athens, Georgia.
No. 9 Ole Miss at No. 2 Georgia preview
USC at No. 6 Oregon (10:30 p.m ET on FOX)
Laken: The last image we have of Caleb Williams is of him jumping into his mom's arms and crying after the 52-42 loss to Washington. TV cameras caught the emotional moment, which signified just how tough things have been for Williams at USC this season. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner has been giving his all each Saturday — he's completed 69% of his passes for 2,958 yards and 28 touchdowns with just four interceptions in 10 games. But the Trojans have lost three of their last four games.
Lincoln Riley fired defensive coordinator Alex Grinch over the weekend. His defense has been abysmal, giving up 345 points this season, the second-most in the country. With just two games left, how different can the unit look? Riley named defensive line coach Shaun Nua and linebackers coach Brian Odom as co-DCs for the remainder of the season.
USC heads to Oregon to face the Ducks' high-flying offense that just scored 63 points against Cal and is ranked No. 1 nationally in scoring offense (47.4 PPG). No matter what Williams and his top 10 offense do, this could be another tough day for the Trojans.
RJ: Since starting 6-0, USC has lost three of its last four, fired the defensive coordinator, and already booked Riley’s second three-loss season in as many years, something he'd never done at OU. They're putting up 40 — eight out of nine games with 40 points or more. They're also giving up at least 30 in their last six games. Oregon coach Dan Lanning ain't in the mercy business. I daresay Riley wouldn't have it any other way. Is there a maniacal USC Trojan team in there? Is there a nasty in there we ain't yet seen?
Now is the time to show it. With Brian Odom and Shaun Nua calling the defense, there’s a chance the Trojans can walk into Autzen and pull off the kind of upset that would set the table for a continued rivalry in the Big Ten. But Bo Nix, Bucky Irving and Troy Franklin have been so formidable that it took a coaching error on behalf of their head coach to see them lose just once this season. I doubt that will be the case in Eugene on Saturday.
USC vs. Oregon preview: Can the Trojans bounce back?
Michael: As the final month of the college football season continues, Washington's Penix is likely in the driver's seat for the Heisman Trophy. Penix leads the country in passing at 355.7 yards per game, ranks third in touchdown passes with 26 and is orchestrating one of the most explosive offenses in the country for an undefeated team.
But with each successive close call for the Huskies, who have won their last five games by just 37 combined points, the case for Oregon quarterback Nix as a legitimate Heisman challenger grows a little stronger. At 23 years old, Nix has started more college football games than any quarterback in the history of the sport. His decision to transfer from Auburn to Oregon ahead of the 2022 season looks like one of the shrewdest moves in the transfer portal era, and his choice to use the extra year of eligibility afforded to players during the COVID-19 pandemic has positioned the Ducks as legitimate College Football Playoff contenders.
On a personal level, Nix has been fabulous. He's completed 235 of 301 passes (78.1%) for 2,723 yards, 25 touchdowns and only two interceptions. His completion percentage is the best in the country by nearly two full percentage points. His yardage total ranks eighth overall and seventh among Power 5 quarterbacks. His touchdown total ranks fourth and is further enhanced by five additional scores as a runner.
Saturday's duel with Williams — the reigning Heisman Trophy winner — will give Nix the perfect platform to show the country his worth.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter at @Michael_Cohen13.
Laken Litman covers college football, college basketball and soccer for FOX Sports. She previously wrote for Sports Illustrated, USA Today and The Indianapolis Star. She is the author of "Strong Like a Woman," published in spring 2022 to mark the 50th anniversary of Title IX. Follow her on Twitter @LakenLitman.
RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The Number One College Football Show." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube.
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