PGA - THE PLAYERS Championship - 03/09/2023

2023 Players Championship odds, picks, field by Chris "The Bear" Fallica

Updated Mar. 15, 2023 11:59 a.m. ET

"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.

The Players Championship might be viewed as the "fifth major" by some, but I’ve found it to be one of the more difficult golf events to handicap.

Each of the last three editions has been won by elite players — and major champions — Rory McIlroy, Justin Thomas and Cam Smith. But non-household names such as Fred Funk, Tim Clark and K.J. Choi have also emerged victorious at TPC Sawgrass.

Making matters even cloudier, it's hard to factor in much recent history as last year’s event was full of bad weather and a 36-hole Saturday cut. Here's the kicker, last year's winner — Cam Smith — isn’t even here to defend his title as he has gone to the LIV Tour.

I’m not going to go deep with a ton of picks, but since this is one of the biggest tournaments of the year, here are a few wagers I’m making for the event.

Top Picks

Patrick Cantlay +1400 to win (bet $10 to win $150 total); +180 Top 10 (bet $10 to win $190 total)

I can’t seem to figure Cantlay out, and the fact he has missed the cut here in each of the last three trips probably doesn’t offer much confidence. But his first two go-rounds were respectable top-25 finishes, and there’s no question he’s in form, coming off a third in the Genesis and a fourth last week at Bay Hill.

So you can shake off those concerns of Cantlay being better suited to win on the West Coast Swing.

If you look at his stats, it all makes sense as to why he’s so successful right now — fourth in green in regulation (GIR) and second in Birdie Average. The only players with shorter odds than Cantlay this week are McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler and Jon Rahm, so a win would be no surprise.

Viktor Hovland +2500 to win (bet $10 to win $260 total); +280 Top 10 (bet $10 to win $38 total)

Last year, Hovland played this portion of the season quite well, finishing in the top 10 at the Genesis, Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players. A Sunday 75 pushed Hovland out of contention in a crowded leaderboard at Bay Hill, but his play appears to be trending up as he’s made improvements from last year in Strokes Gained (SG): Total and driving accuracy.

He’s also someone you might want to consider for first-round leader, as he’s eighth on the tour in first-round scoring average. Hovland is always an adventure around the green, but there’s plenty to like about the other parts of his game.

Long-Shot Sprinkle

Rickie Fowler +5000 (bet $10 to win $510 total); +230 Top 20 (bet $10 to win $33 total)

The 2015 Players champion has been dialed in with his irons this year — ninth in SG Approach — after finishing 150th and 157th the last two years. Fowler already has three top 10s this year — he had a combined two in 2021 and 2022 — and has fired an opening round 68 in each of his last two events, so he has been in it from the start.

Obviously, asking for a win is a lot, but it's not the worst stab, nor is almost 2.5-to-1 to finish in the top 20.

Matchup Play

Keegan Bradley -110 vs. Matt Fitzpatrick

Bradley very easily could have won this event last year and hasn’t been outside the top 30 here since 2017. He has played well in some of the tougher fields and tougher tracks this year, finishing second at Torrey and 10th last week.

Fitzpatrick had a solid week as well at Bay Hill, but he also has been battling a neck injury and missed cuts at Riviera and Pebble Beach. At this price, I like Bradley in this matchup.

Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.

2023 Players Championship odds, field (Odds by FOX Bet)*

Rory McIlroy +800
Jon Rahm +1000
Scottie Scheffler +1000
Patrick Cantlay +1400
Justin Thomas +1600
Max Homa +2000
Collin Morikawa +2200
Xander Schauffele +2200
Tony Finau +2500
Viktor Hovland +2500
Jason Day +2800
Jordan Spieth +3000
Tyrrell Hatton +3000
Will Zalatoris +3000
Cameron Young +3300
Matt Fitzpatrick +3300
Sungjae Im +3300
Keegan Bradley +3500
Tom Kim +3500
Shane Lowry +4000
Rickie Fowler +5000
Keith Mitchell +5500
Si Woo Kim +5500
Corey Conners +6000
Sahith Theegala +6600
Sam Burns +6600
Tommy Fleetwood +6600
Chris Kirk +7000
Hideki Matsuyama +7000
Harris English +8000
Kurt Kitayama +8000
Seamus Power +8000
Adam Scott +9000
Justin Rose +9000
Russell Henley +9000
Matt Kuchar +9500
Adam Hadwin +11000
Alex Noren +11000
Brian Harman +11000
Francesco Molinari +11000
Tom Hoge +11000
Aaron Wise +12500
Billy Horschel +12500
Davis Riley +12500
Taylor Montgomery +12500
Webb Simpson +12500
Denny McCarthy +15000
Gary Woodland +15000
Kyoung-Hoon Lee +15000
Lucas Herbert +15000
Maverick McNealy +15000
Min Woo Lee +15000
Sepp Straka +15000
Taylor Pendrith +15000
Thomas Detry +15000
Wyndham Clark +15000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +17500
Jhonattan Vegas +17500
Joel Dahmen +17500
Justin Suh +17500
Ryan Fox +17500
Aaron Rai +20000
Adam Svensson +20000
Brendon Todd +20000
Danny Willett +20000
Emiliano Grillo +20000
J.T. Poston +20000
Nick Taylor +20000
Scott Stallings +20000
Taylor Moore +20000
Trey Mullinax +20000
Andrew Putnam +22500
Luke List +22500
Beau Hossler +25000
Ben Griffin +25000
Ben Martin +25000
Byeong Hun An +25000
Cameron Davis +25000
Doug Ghim +25000
Garrick Higgo +25000
Hayden Buckley +25000
J.J. Spaun +25000
Joseph Bramlett +25000
Lee Hodges +25000
Mackenzie Hughes +25000
Patrick Rodgers +25000
Robby Shelton +25000
Russell Knox +25000
Stephan Jaeger +25000
Alex Smalley +27500
Sam Ryder +27500
Adam Long +30000
Brandon Wu +30000
David Lipsky +30000
Davis Thompson +30000
Kevin Kisner +30000
Kramer Hickok +30000
Mark Hubbard +30000
Martin Laird +30000
Matt Wallace +30000
Nick Hardy +30000
Patton Kizzire +30000
Adam Schenk +35000
Dylan Frittelli +35000
Eric Cole +35000
Nate Lashley +35000
Ryan Palmer +35000
Tyler Duncan +35000
David Lingmerth +40000
Harrison Endycott +40000
Kevin Streelman +40000
Matthew NeSmith +40000
Michael Thompson +40000
Seong-Hyeon Kim+ 40000
Stewart Cink +40000
Chesson Hadley +45000
Aaron Baddeley +50000
Andrew Novak +50000
Callum Tarren +50000
Doc Redman +50000
Dylan Wu +50000
Erik Barnes +50000
Greyson Sigg +50000
James Hahn +50000
Justin Lower +50000
Kevin Tway +50000
Lucas Glover +50000
Matthias Schwab +50000
Nicolas Echavarria +50000
Peter Malnati +50000
Ryan Armour +50000
Scott Piercy +50000
Troy Merritt +50000
Will Gordon +50000
Austin Smotherman +75000
Chad Ramey +75000
Chez Reavie +75000
Kelly Kraft +100000
Nick Watney +100000
Robert Streb +100000
Ryan Brehm +100000
Tyson Alexander +100000
Jerry Kelly +150000
Max McGreevy +150000