National Football League

NFL odds: Why sportsbooks are rooting for the Saints vs. the Packers in Week 1

Updated Sep. 9, 2021 5:14 p.m. ET

By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

The wait for the National Football League regular season is over.

As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5, O/U 51) and Dallas Cowboys get set to kick things off Thursday night in the Sunshine State, sportsbooks are closely monitoring Week 1 lines and propositional bets. They’re also keeping tabs on potential payouts in the future markets.

Bookmakers are always aware of where their betting liabilities lie.

"The biggest liability we have for the Super Bowl — and AFC — is the Denver Broncos," FOX Bet content integration specialist Jacob Blangsted-Barnor told me. "We’ll lose a lot of money if they go all the way. Most of those bets were placed amongst the rumors of Aaron Rodgers going there. It’s not something we’re particularly worried about.

"In terms of Super Bowl liability behind the Broncos, it’s the Eagles and Steelers. This is often the case with our Pennsylvania-heavy fan base. We’re used to it at this point. Cleveland is the second-biggest AFC liability, and Washington is our biggest NFC liability.

"The Cleveland Browns make me the most nervous."

You could almost hear JBB smiling over the phone as he rattled off those five teams. That’s because a sportsbook is generally in great shape when it’s rooting against teams such as Cleveland, Denver, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Washington long-term.

Four of the five teams are underdogs to make the playoffs, with the Browns (-213) the only favorite to earn a berth. And if I were booking bets, I would much rather book toward needing Cleveland to fall flat in the conference instead of Kansas City, Buffalo or Baltimore.

So don’t cry for the bookmaker.

In the NFL Most Valuable Player betting market, Patrick Mahomes (+550), Aaron Rodgers (+1000) and Josh Allen (+1100) have the shortest odds at FOX Bet. However, a 44-year-old quarterback with seven Super Bowl rings is still a giant elephant in the room.

"Tom Brady (+1400) is our biggest liability for MVP this season," JBB reported. "The customers can’t get enough Brady. Taysom Hill (+20000) is second, and most of those bets were placed at a huge price when it was rumored that he might start in New Orleans. So we’re feeling good about that one. And Carson Wentz (+4000) is another one that built up quickly when he was traded to Indianapolis."

One team that surprisingly hasn’t seen much futures action is the Dallas Cowboys. Historically, you pay a tax on America’s team to win the division, conference and Super Bowl, but that doesn’t appear to be the case in 2021.

Nobody is taking the bait on the stars of "Hard Knocks" to make much noise. FOX Bet has the best price in the USA on Dallas (+150) to win the NFC East. That’s rather juicy, considering the market was -110 two months ago.

"It’s the uncertainty with Dak Prescott combined with the lack of bets we’ve taken on the Cowboys," JBB explained. "We’ve only written 5% of all bets and 3% of the money on Dallas to win the division. There’s been no appetite from the customers."

I find it fascinating that most NFC East future bettors are flocking to bet their hard-earned money on a Washington squad that finished 7-9 last season and will start Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. Sure, the defensive line is great, but come on. Fitzpatrick has never sniffed the playoffs.

As for Week 1 lines, sportsbooks already have a pretty good idea of where the customers’ bread will be buttered. I took a shot in the dark by guessing that the FOX Bet trading room will need the Saints to cover against the Packers.

"That would be ideal," JBB said with a laugh. "Many customers are very bullish on the Packers, and that’s been nonstop since Rodgers decided to come back. We also see lots of [public] money on the Seahawks and the ‘Under’ in Jacksonville-Houston. There’s not much belief in offense there."

And which team does the bookmaker like?

"I’m a big Colts fan this season," JBB admitted. "There are definitely some things that have worried me over the past few weeks, but they’re very interesting as three-point home underdogs. I don’t hate that at all."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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