North Carolina vs. Michigan State Prediction, Odds, Picks - NCAA Tournament Second Round

Updated Mar. 23, 2024 3:27 p.m. ET

Data Skrive

The No. 9 seed Michigan State Spartans (20-14) are ready for their second-round NCAA Tournament matchup against the No. 1 seed North Carolina Tar Heels (28-7) on Saturday at 5:30 PM ET. The winner advances to the Sweet 16 in the West Region bracket.

The Tar Heels, who are favored by 4 points, are set to take on the Spartans. The over/under for the game is 142.5.

Keep reading to get all you need to know before wagering on the North Carolina-Michigan State contest.

North Carolina vs. Michigan State Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, March 23, 2024 at 5:30 PM ET
Where: Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina
How to Watch on TV: CBS
Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Tar Heels vs Spartans Betting Information
Favorite	Spread	Favorite Spread Odds	Underdog Spread Odds	Total	Over Total Odds	Under Total Odds	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline
Tar Heels	-4	-105	-115	142.5	-112	-108	-192	+160

North Carolina vs. Michigan State Prediction

Pick ATS: Michigan State (+4)
Pick OU: Over (142.5)
Prediction: North Carolina 74, Michigan State 71

Learn more about the North Carolina Tar Heels vs. the Michigan State Spartans game on FOX Sports!

North Carolina vs. Michigan State Betting Insights

Betting Line Implied Predictions

Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the matchup is Tar Heels 73, Spartans 69.
The Tar Heels have a 65.8% chance to win this contest per the moneyline's implied probability.
The Spartans hold a 38.5% implied probability to win.

Key Spread Facts

North Carolina has put together a 20-15-0 record against the spread this season.
Michigan State is 19-14-1 ATS this year.
North Carolina has covered the spread 13 times this season (13-12 ATS) when playing as at least 4-point favorites.
Michigan State has covered the spread twice this year (2-2 ATS) when playing as at least 4-point underdogs.

Key Total Facts

Tar Heels games have finished with more than 142.5 points 27 times so far this season.
There have been 14 Spartans games this season with more than 142.5 points scored.
The total for this matchup is 142.5 points, 12.2 fewer than the combined scoring average of the two teams.

Key Moneyline Facts

North Carolina has a 22-5 record in games when it was listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 81.5% of those games).
This season, Michigan State has been the underdog five times and won one of those games.
When it has played as a moneyline favorite with odds of -192 or shorter, North Carolina has a record of 17-4 (81% win percentage).
This season, Michigan State has won three of its five games when it is the underdog by at least +160 on the moneyline.

North Carolina vs. Michigan State: 2023-24 Stats Comparison

	North Carolina	Michigan State
Points Scored Per Game (Rank)	81.7 (20)	73 (192)
Points Allowed (Rank)	70 (113)	65.5 (19)
Rebounds (Rank)	10.5 (45)	8.8 (158)
3pt Made (Rank)	8 (119)	6.5 (265)
Assists (Rank)	14.5 (94)	16.2 (26)
Turnovers (Rank)	9.9 (60)	9.4 (30)

North Carolina 2023-24 Key Players

Tar Heels Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
RJ Davis	35	21.4	3.7	3.5	1.2	0.2	3.1
Armando Bacot	35	14.3	10.3	1.5	0.6	1.4	0.1
Ingram Harrison	35	12.1	8.9	2.2	1.4	0.4	1.7
Cormac Ryan	34	11.3	2.7	1.3	0.7	0.4	2
Elliot Cadeau	35	7.3	2.3	4.1	0.8	0.1	0.2

Michigan State 2023-24 Key Players

Spartans Leaders
Name	GP	PTS	REB	ASST	STL	BLK	3PM
Tyson Walker	33	18.2	2.9	2.9	1.9	0.1	1.9
Malik Hall	34	12.5	5.6	1.9	0.5	0.3	0.6
A.J Hoggard	34	10.9	3.1	5.3	1.5	0.3	0.7
Jaden	34	10.4	3.9	1.2	1.1	0.4	1.8
Tre Holloman	34	5.8	1.6	2.5	0.6	0.3	1