by Mark Kriegel

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Pacquiao's gifts have been recently celebrated with an appearance on Jimmy Kimmel's television program, and a five-page spread in Time. Even The New York Times, which ceased diplomatic relations with boxing years ago, has deigned to cover the Pacquiao phenomenon.

The forecasts for his future are impossibly giddy. It's as if greatness were a fungible commodity. Once he's done being a great fighter, he can be a great politician. Or a great crooner. His choice. Not bad for a boy who left home for good when his father ate his dog.

Still, anyone who saw Pacquiao's rendition of "Sometimes When We Touch" on Kimmel should acknowledge the propaganda with just a bit of caution. Sure, he's a way better welterweight than he is a tenor. But let's not get carried away here.

I'm not saying Pacquiao isn't the rightful favorite. I expect him to win, especially if Miguel Cotto has trouble with the 145-pound catch weight. But at 3-to-1 against Cotto — a guy with a single loss to an opponent who probably cheated — the odds have been hyped out of whack.

Two years ago, Cotto earned a unanimous decision against Shane Mosley to retain his 147-pound belt. The natural welterweight who won that night in Madison Square Garden would beat this Pacquiao, who's fought at 140 or higher just twice. What's more, I submit that the fighter who seemed comfortably ahead of Antonio Margarito though the first six rounds of their fight 16 months ago at the MGM Grand would've beaten Pacquiao easily, as well.

Those six rounds were a masterful display of skill. Cotto would jab and slip, duck and counter — with hooks to the body and uppercuts that caught Margarito flush on the chin.

"He was fighting the perfect fight against Margarito," Pacquiao's trainer, Freddie Roach, told me some weeks ago.

Still, as perfect as Cotto appeared to be, that chin of Margarito proved a little better. That night saw Margarito become boxing's Terminator. No matter what Cotto hit him with, Margarito kept coming forward, running him down.

As it ended, with Cotto taking a knee — twice — in the 11th round, his face looked like something out of splatter flick.

Margarito bloodied Cotto in their much-disputed 2008 fight. (Ethan Miller / Getty Images)

It was a terrible beating. Worse still, it was likely an illegal one. As Margarito was ready to take the ring against his next opponent, Mosley, a plaster-like substance was discovered in his handwraps. Mosley then took him out in nine. Months later, the California State Athletic commission suspended him.

It's beyond all reason to think that Margarito began cheating against Mosley, 43 fights into his pro career. Hence, as Cotto returns to the MGM for his date with Pacquiao, the central question remains: what was taken from him — or, rather, what was stolen — that night 16 months ago?

"I am pretty recovered from the Margarito defeat," Cotto said on a conference call last week.

Pretty recovered?

"That was a chapter from the past," he said at Wednesday's press conference.

The past informs the present, of course. Neither of Cotto's two subsequent fights have done anything to dissuade people from talking about the effects of his war with Margarito.

The first was Michael Jennings, who surprised no one in lasting just five rounds. The second was the more daunting Joshua Clottey, who opened a huge gash above Cotto's left eye in the third round.

Under such duress, said Roach, a trained eye could begin to see the true damage inflicted by Margarito. "When you lose like that for the first time, a devastating loss, obviously, it's got to take something out of you," said Roach. "You look in the Clottey fight, about the ninth round, when (Cotto) was holding his eye, he wanted to quit. You could see it. The doctor wanted to stop the fight also. Then the cutman said, 'I can handle it.' So he had no choice."

It's worth mentioning that Clottey isn't exactly a bum. He's a big strong welterweight who had lost only to Margarito and Carlos Baldomir. I thought Cotto showed a lot more heart than quit.

"I had a huge cut over my eye, a strong opponent in front of me and I was the winner of the fight," said Cotto.

Still, no one seems to care. Certainly not Manny Pacquiao, who, touched by greatness, will perform in a post-fight concert at the Mandalay Bay Events Center. Remaining seats are priced at $40. At 3-to-1, your money is better spent on Cotto.