by Tom Oates , Wisconsin State Journal

So hot that the Big Ten likely will be to college basketball this year what the Big East was last year - a conference with two or three elite teams at the top and eight or nine teams that could reach the NCAA tournament.

In most preseason polls, defending regular-season champion Michigan State is a top-five team; defending tournament champion Purdue is a top-10 team; and Ohio State, Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota are worthy of being ranked. That leaves out the University of Wisconsin, which has been to 11 straight NCAA tournaments and has senior guards; Penn State, which won the NIT title; and Northwestern, which has reason to hope for its first NCAA tournament bid.

"You could be an 8-10 team in this league this year and be very, very good," Penn State coach Ed DeChellis said.

In voting released by the conference Thursday, Michigan State was picked to win the title, followed by Purdue and Ohio State. But the Big Ten, which matched the Big East's seven NCAA bids last year and put Michigan State in the national final, has a strong junior class that appears ready to take it to another level.

"In 1999 and 2000, we had two teams in the Final Four and I thought (the Big Ten) was really good," Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. "But I think this is the best it's been maybe since that date.

I honestly see eight or nine teams that realistically could win the league. ... Top to bottom, the league is the best it's been in a long time."

Big Ten coaches say that every year and usually it falls on deaf ears. The difference is, this time it's true.

"We just have an unbelievable junior class in college basketball and it's evident, obviously, in the Big Ten," Purdue coach Matt Painter said. "We have some guys that had opportunities to go in the (NBA) draft that stayed. I think that really strengthened our league and I think we'll have the opportunity now to grow and be one of the premier leagues, if not the premier league, in the country."

As UW coach Bo Ryan said Thursday, you can tell the conference will be tough simply by looking at the stat sheet, the rosters and the returning players.

The five first-team all-Big Ten picks - Michigan State's Kalin Lucas, Michigan's Manny Harris, Ohio State's Evan Turner, Penn State's Talor Battle and Purdue's JuJuan Johnson - return as juniors. In all, 11 of the 15 players on the three all-conference teams are back, including Purdue junior Robbie Hummel, who battled injuries last season after being named the preseason player of the year. Look further and you'll see that 22 of the top 30 scorers and 41 of the 55 starters in the conference are back.

Here's the best way to tell how strong the Big Ten is this year: Penn State, Northwestern and Indiana expect to make some headway this season, but even their coaches are having a hard time finding teams they can jump over in the standings.

"Everybody is well-coached; everybody has players back or teams back that are incredibly balanced or have that star power," Indiana coach Tom Crean said. "There's no question it's going to be hard to move up."

Everything in college hoops is cyclical, and the Big Ten is in an up cycle right now. Much of that can be traced to the influx of new coaches - all of them proven winners - in 2007 and '08.

As a result, Indiana, which started over last year, and Iowa, which is starting over this year, are the only teams that don't look like tournament teams. And even the Hoosiers, who were a tough out despite their extreme youth last year, will be stronger after adding the Big Ten's best recruiting class.

"Every game is going to be a challenge," Painter said. "That's probably something that's different in the Big Ten this year. You can't grab your schedule and say, 'I think we can win these two or three games.' There are absolutely zero (automatic) wins on the Big Ten schedule this year. Anybody can beat anybody else and I think that means you have a great conference."

Now all the Big Ten has to do is prove it.

Contact Tom Oates at toates@madison.com or 608-252-6172.

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