With a couple of sick days in your back pocket and a bracket in your hot, little hands, it's time for your marching orders.
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For starters, do not disrespect the chalk outline. This means that even though we like to define the NCAA men's basketball tournament by its upsets, embracing the favorites is a swell way to go.
But you have most of the basic wisdom down cold; a Longhorn can trample a Governor, for example, and a Hoya just sounds good against anything. Also remember that air-tight guard play is a must, inside domination goes a long way and a sizzling effort in last week's conference tournament can be overrated.
If you're still a bit unsteady on the particulars for this edition of March Madness, allow us to provide a few alleged insights for the opening weekend:
Dangerous minds
Coaches tactically capable of unloading a knockout punch to your bracket.
Tim Floyd, USC: The man once referred to as "Pink Floyd" by Michael Jordan is an outstanding coach who isn't afraid to concoct a hybrid defense in the name of shutting down an opposing team's top option. His triangle-and-two took some starch out of Memphis.Phil Martelli, St. Joseph's: The coach of the 11th-seeded Hawks has a great sense of humor and greater sense of when to make an in-game adjustment.Kevin Stallings, Vanderbilt: This guy played for a legendary high school coach (Vergil Fletcher, Collinsville, Ill.) and really paid attention during practice.Dennis Felton, Georgia: He demonstrated far more double-duty motivation last week than Ernie Banks did with the Chicago Cubs.Jim Larranaga, George Mason:We finally have a Patriots coach that people actually like.
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| Keep your eye on Davidson's Stephen Curry. His opponents will be. (Mary Ann Chastain / Associated Press) |
Think hard before zoning these teams
The following squads are eager and skilled at shooting the 3-pointer.
Davidson: Stephen Curry ... enough typed.Vanderbilt: Stallings' Commodores knocked in 40.8 percent of their 3s.Notre Dame: The defensive alignment may not matter, because the Irish (who also hit 40.8 percent) and Kyle McAlarney will push for transition 3s before a zone can set.Cornell: The Big Red shot 42.4 percent from distance (third in the nation) and first-round foe Stanford has been known to construct a zone around 7-foot twins Robin and Brook Lopez.The most vulnerable high seeds
Good teams with flaws or match-up issues that could send them home early.
Duke: The West's No. 2 seed lacks the inside presence to prevent a beat-down in the lane. If Arizona shows up to play against West Virginia, 6-foot-10 Jordan Hill may have fun against the Blue Devils in Round 2.Tennessee: The second seed in the East loves to run and press; potential second-round foe Butler has sound guards who can exploit a double-team and dictate tempo (please note that beating pressure and dictating tempo is easier written than done against Bruce Pearl's Vols).Wisconsin: Bo Ryan's swing-motion offense carves up teams that aren't used to dealing with it. But the third-seeded Badgers may not have a chance to run the swing if they go against the innovative Floyd and USC in Round 2. It also should be noted that USC has four potential NBA players in its starting lineup, while the Badgers (according to the scouts we talk to) may have zero.
Michigan State: Sure, a five seed isn't all that mighty, but the Spartans are high on the vulnerability scale due to their overall inconsistency and a live-or-die reliance on the 3-point stroke of Drew Neitzel.Hype-free layers with NBA profiles
You may not be familiar with the names, but the pro scouts are.
Courtney Lee, Western Kentucky: High-scoring swingman is projected as a first-round pick by some.Trent Plaisted, BYU: Cougar junior isn't exactly a mortal lock for the first round whenever he enters the draft, but does check in as a rare college post player who should actually be drafted.Tyler Smith, Tennessee: OK, it seems impossible for the best player on a great team to be relatively unknown, but — based on his unselfishness and total game — this Volunteer Smith deserves more notice.You may not know 'em, but you'll love 'em
These regional stars ready to hit the big stage.
Lee Cummard, BYU: The spindly swingman averaged 15 points and seven rebounds, sharing Mountain West Player of the Year honors with J.R. Giddens of New Mexico.Al Fisher, Kent State: After starting his career at Siena, Fisher went the junior college route and averaged 14 points per game as a junior for the Flashes.Adam Emmenecker, Drake: He's not their best player, but the Bulldogs' senior point guard does whatever it takes for Drake to win ... except make 3-pointers. He's 0-for-2 from behind the arc this season. Jeremiah Dominguez, Portland State: The 5-6 Dominguez will be under the gun during a first-round showdown with the deep backcourt of Kansas.
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| Does the shoe fit? Boise State looks like a Cinderella story. (Matt York / Associated Press) |
Double-digit seeds with the best chance to shock the world
Note: This still doesn't qualify as a good chance.
Boise State: The 14th-seeded Broncos have a solid inside presence in 6-9 Matt Nelson, a lights-out shooter in Tyler Tiedeman (49 percent from 3) and a slashing point producer in Reggie Larry. Do they have a great chance to take out Louisville? No, but that's where the shock would come in.Oral Roberts: While Pitt really would have to lay an egg to lose, the Golden Eagles have a fine playmaker in Robert Jarvis and legitimate inside muscle from Shawn King and Marcus Lewis.Georgia: If the Bulldogs can win twice in one day and win a tournament that included Tennessee, knocking off the third-seeded Xavier Musketeers doesn't seem that unreasonable. By the way, the basketball world's already shocked.Players capable of a Jimmy Chitwood moment
A picket-fence isn't in the offing, but these sharpshooters are Hoosiers caliber.
Shan Foster, Vanderbilt: The Commodores' wing man hit on 47 percent of his 3s.A.J. Graves, Butler: This gunslinger played his home games in the gym where the title game from Hoosiers was filmed.
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Stephen Curry, Davidson: Dell's kid averaged 25 points per game and shot 44 percent from deep.Kyle McAlarney, Notre Dame: The Irish guard was 45 percent from downtown.Chris Lofton, Tennessee: After a slow start, the Vols' leader has returned to dangerous form.Teams you may want to foul late in the game
A couple of big-time squads have been shaky on the free-throw line.
Pittsburgh: The Panthers do a lot of good things, but making free throws consistently (65.8 percent) isn't one of those things.Memphis: If you're close enough late in the game for this to matter, please note that the Tigers are a miserable 59.6 percent at the stripe.First-round individual matchups to watch
Sometimes one-on-one challenges can change the course of five-on-five.
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| Beasley vs. Mayo is sure to get plenty of first-round hype. (Charlie Riedel / Associated Press) |
Michael Beasley, Kansas State vs. Davon Jefferson, USC: Floyd may junk up the defense and prevent any man-to-man showdown between these freshmen, but things still should be fun around the rim. We also can follow the scoreboard showdown between Beasley and O.J. Mayo.Plaisted, BYU vs. DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M: Plaisted is strong and skilled around the basket; Jordan is long and stingy around the basket.Curry, Davidson vs. Jeremy Pargo, Gonzaga: Curry plays shooting guard and Pargo (younger brother of New Orleans Hornet guard Jannero) operates as a point guard, but their narrow paths should cross more than once in this first-round game.Brandon Johnson, San Diego vs. A.J. Price, UConn: This match-up will go by in a blur.Joe Alexander, West Virginia vs. Chase Budinger, Arizona: Two ultra-athletic forwards are registered here; Alexander has been noted as an overachiever, while critics have been under-whelmed by the sophomore season from the highly recruited Chase.Elements of style
Potential tempo collisions should make things interesting.
Duke vs. UCLA: If the second-seeded Blue Devils and top-seeded Bruins meet in the West finale, pay attention to Mike Krzyzewski's fast pace and spread tactics vs. Ben Howland's grind-'em-down Bruin philosophy.Notre Dame vs. Washington State: This second-round possibility would pit the Big East's top-scoring team against Tony Bennett's clock-choking, hard-defending Cougars.Memphis vs. Oregon: If the Ducks can gun their way past Mississippi State, it may be fun to see if their free-wheeling style works against the equally up-and-down Tigers. Then again, it may not be much fun at all.Drake vs. UConn: Jim Calhoun's Huskies like to clog the lane and play volleyball with opposing shooters. Except for Emmenecker, the Bulldogs don't mind shooting over the top.
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