Reactions to my first mock first round from some NBA insiders on the eve of the league's Pre-Draft Camp in Orlando this week:
Most everyone thinks the Chicago Bulls' choice between Michael Beasley or Derrick Rose as the No. 1 overall pick on June 26 will be one that goes right down to the wire for the franchise's decision makers.Some wonder how much the tale of the tape in Orlando this week — specifically with regard to how tall Beasley is "officially" measured — will impact the Bulls' thinking.
Beasley was listed at 6-foot-10 on both the official Kansas State roster and multiple media sources. But some scouts believe he could stand closer to 6-7 plus than 6-10. I've listed him at 6-9 but wouldn't be surprised if he measures at 6-8 (without shoes) this week.
The bottom line, though, is — regardless of how tall he really is — he's going to be a very productive scorer and rebounder in the NBA for a long time to come, barring the unforeseen.
One insider told me he wouldn't be surprised if Seattle (selecting at No. 4) tabs Arizona freshman guard Jerryd Bayless, instead of his USC counterpart, O.J. Mayo, whom I had the Sonics selecting in my first mock first round.Most of the coaches in the Pac-10 that I've broached the subject with (off the record) believe Mayo is a more complete player than Bayless and has a better NBA future.
I think both will be accomplished scorers in the NBA but I'm not yet quite convinced yet that either will ever be a true point guard.
Another NBA source said it wouldn't surprise him if Seattle's choice at No. 4 is yet another freshman guard, Eric Gordon of Indiana. Gordon struggled mightily with his jump shot over the last six weeks or so of the season but is still rated the best off-guard prospect in this draft pool by most reputable evaluators.
He is another player NBA decision-makers are curious to see officially measured this week. He's been listed at 6-4 and some scouts believe that's a bit generous.
Speculation has bounced around of late that Texas A&M freshman center DeAndre Jordan has received a "guarantee" from a franchise making one of the first five selections.I think that would be quite the gamble on the part of Minnesota, Seattle and Memphis (which are in the 3-5 slots; the assumption remains that Beasley and Rose will go to Chicago and Miami, or vice-versa). And so do the NBA-types I've talked to.
Memphis is considering using its No. 5 pick on one of two freshmen forwards, Kevin Love (UCLA) and Anthony Randolph (LSU). But the Grizzlies' decision-makers could like Mayo more than either. I had 6-9 Italian Danilo Gallinari going to Sacramento at No. 12. But the feedback I've received with regard to that selection is that he will be off the board before the Kings select, and could be chosen as early as No. 6 by New York.
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My No. 6 selection (to the Knicks) was 7-foot sophomore center Robin Lopez of Stanford. The feeling among a few scouts was that pick might be early for Brook's twin but that New Jersey (at No. 10) and Indiana (11) are possibilities. I'm still going to hang onto to my theory that Robin Lopez's stock (he's listed in some mock first rounds in the 20s) is going to climb rapidly during the individual workouts that can begin on June 3. A couple of scouts believe that North Carolina sophomore point guard Tywon Lawson isn't likely to last past Denver, which picks at No. 20. I had him going to Washington two slots earlier.If Lawson is gone before the Nuggets can tab him, wing-types Brandon Rush (Kansas) and Chris Douglas-Roberts (Memphis) are options.
I had 6-7 Arizona sophomore Chase Budinger going to Toronto at No. 17. Someone just told me that Budinger isn't going to be on the board beyond the 15 slot, where Phoenix is scheduled to pick. My first mock had sophomore posts Marreese Speights (Florida) and JaVale McGee (Nevada) going No. 28 (Memphis) and 29 (Detroit), respectively.The post-mock feedback tells me that each will be selected a lot closer to mid-first round status.
Freshman power forward J.J. Hickson (North Carolina State) was my choice at Denver (20). But the word I'm getting is that "he'll go much earlier than that." Indiana senior forward D.J. White was my projection for Seattle's second first-round pick (at 24). Some think that is a bit too early for the Big Ten Conference's Player of the Year and that the Sonics are likely to go "foreign" with that choice. And that could translate into Nicolas Batum of France (I think he'll be picked before 24), Alexis Anjinca of France or Serge Ibaka of the Congo. Kansas junior combo guard Mario Chalmers was my projection at No. 16 to Philadelphia. He is declining to play in Orlando this week and there is some speculation that he's received a first-round guarantee. Some scouts believe that a couple of junior guards who didn't much national fanfare during the regular season could be among the draft's biggest "climbers" over the next four weeks.They are 6-3 Lester Hudson (Tennessee-Martin), who scored 35 points against Memphis and 36 vs. Vanderbilt en route to averaging 25.7 in his one season with the Skyhawks, and 6-2 George Hill of IUPUI, who averaged 21.5 points, 6.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game.
Each could land early in the second round.
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