by Knoxville News-Sentinel

"Last year, we were the best-case scenario for that,'' Kentucky coach Billy Gillispie said this week. "We had a poor record going into conference play and played very well in conference. "That's what we intend to do again.''

Yep, a 12-4 SEC campaign last year sure got Gillispie off the hot seat after his first Kentucky team started 5-5.

This year, 12-4 would win the conference. At least that's Bruce Pearl's prediction.

A year ago, Tennessee went 14-2 to win its first outright regular-season title since 1967. The Vols were the preseason pick to win it again this year. That forecast, however, looks a bit more murky of late.

"Obviously, the league is not as strong at the top,'' said Pearl. "I've been in the league three years and we've had two national champions (Florida, back to back) and then Tennessee was No. 1 in the RPI and strength of schedule.

"That is definitely not the case this year and that will make a competitive conference race. The champion is going to have more losses than we did last year.''

The 16 conference games between here and March Madness should hold any number of surprises.

There are two new coaches: Darrin Horn at South Carolina and Trent Johnson at LSU.

There are some exciting freshmen: Scotty Hopson at Tennessee, Courtney Fortson at Arkansas, JaMychal Green at Alabama, Trey Thompkins at Georgia.

There are the comeback kids: Ronald Steele at Alabama, Tasmin Mitchell at LSU, Jodie Meeks at Kentucky, Kovortney Barber at Auburn.

There are guys who have elevated their games: Michael Washington at Arkansas, David Huertas at Ole Miss, Jarvis Varnado at Mississippi State.

And there are familiar go-to faces: Tyler Smith at UT, Patrick Patterson at Kentucky, Devan Downey at South Carolina, Nick Calathes at Florida.

What there are not many of are marquee wins in the non-conference build-up.

SEC teams went only 5-8 against ranked opponents. Tennessee accounted for two of those wins (Georgetown and Marquette), South Carolina another (Baylor). Just last week surprising Arkansas upset two top-10 foes, Oklahoma and Texas, to enter conference play on a roll.

Not bad considering the Razorbacks lost their top five scorers from last year and are led by a freshman point guard, Fortson.

"Age and inexperience doesn't mean you can't have a level of success,'' said second-year coach John Pelphrey.

Arkansas looks like the best team in the SEC West, although LSU has talent, including two holdovers from the 2006 Final Four team.

The Tigers are off to a 10-2 start under Johnson, who left Stanford to replace ousted John Brady. But their schedule has largely been a tray of cupcakes. Johnson said that was dictated by shaky academic scenarios.

"We had a majority of guys on this team we couldn't afford to have away from campus,'' he said.

The East is up for grabs. Florida, though still young, will be improved. Kentucky has the league's best inside-outside punch in Patterson and Meeks. Meeks leads the league in scoring (24.4 ppg); Patterson is making a case for player of the year.

Tennessee, meanwhile, is an enigma. The Vols still have the ingredients to defend their title - but only if Pearl can coax them closer to reaching their potential.

There's time to do that. But not time to waste.

"The non-conference schedule, you're not really playing for anything other than to get better and prepare yourselves for the conference,'' said Florida's Billy Donovan, the dean of SEC coaches. "We're all playing for something now.''

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