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Fearless Predictions for this week's games

by CollegeFootballNews.com


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Updated: November 6, 2009, 12:23 PM EST
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For more college football predictions and analysis go to WhatIfSports.com

Fearless Predictions
ACC | Big Ten | Pac-10 | SEC | Big 12 | Big East | C-USA | MAC | MWest | Ind | Sun Belt | WAC

FEATURED GAME
No. 9 LSU at No. 3 Alabama
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET

Line: Alabama -9
Alabama still has a nasty, scary road rivalry game at Auburn to deal with, along with a road trip to Mississippi State, and LSU has to go to Ole Miss and has an always tough (for LSU) game against Arkansas, but for all intents and purposes, this should decide the SEC West title and it will go a long way to further the national title discussion. Either Alabama will win and will keep careening to a clash with Florida for the SEC title, and the BCS Championship game, or LSU will pull off a huge road victory and will suddenly be in the hunt for the national title.

LSU blasted Tulane, 42-0, last week getting huge production on the ground and an efficient day from the passing attack, but that was Tulane. One of Conference USA's lowest bottom-feeders wasn't going to have a chance against the Tigers' second team, much less the top players, and that wasn't necessarily a great indication of what LSU could really do. However, the 31-10 win over Auburn a few weeks earlier showed that things might be jelling and coming together at the right time, and this might be the perfect chance to catch a Bama team that's been begging to be tagged.

With two weeks off, the Tide will be rested and ready coming off the scary 12-10 win over Tennessee thanks to a blocked field goal. The 20-6 win over South Carolina wasn't impressive, the offense sputtered a bit in a 22-3 win over Ole Miss, and Kentucky was the better team for roughly 40 minutes in a 38-20 Tide win. Style points don't matter, Alabama will play for the national title if its 13-0, but it's time for the team to start playing more like a true national title contender. Florida flexed its muscles last week against Georgia, and now it's Bama's turn. If not, LSU will go from being an afterthought in the SEC title chase to being in the thick of the national title discussion.

Terrence Cody

Why LSU might win: The Alabama passing game went from excellent, to mediocre, to awful. QB Greg McElroy threw for over 200 yards in each of the first four games, with his high moment the 17-of-24, 291-yard, three-touchdown day against Arkansas. Ever since then, the offense has had to rely only on the running game, which isn't a bad thing, and the great defense, but McElroy has become a liability and the team has had to hide him. Sound familiar, LSU fans? It's not like last year for the Tigers, when they had to do everything possible to keep their quarterbacks from throwing thanks to Jarrett Lee's penchant for giving the ball to the other team, but Bama isn't exactly letting McElroy take any chances. The LSU defense has been the real deal, even though the line isn't playing anywhere close to the high standards the program usually sets. The Tide isn't going to find its passing groove this week.

Why Alabama might win: The Alabama offensive line has a huge advantage over the LSU defensive front. LSU doesn't get to the quarterback, ranking last in the SEC in sacks, is mediocre at making lays behind the line, and is average against the run. Overall, the LSU run defense hasn't been awful, but when push has come to shove, teams like Florida, Mississippi State and Auburn were able to shove. Alabama should be able to control the game with the ground attack and with the great pass rush. The Tide defense leads the SEC in sacks and tackles for loss, while LSU is shockingly poor in pass protection allowing a whopping 23 sacks so far.

Who to watch: LSU can't win this game, or even stay in it, unless QB Jordan Jefferson comes up with a whopper of a performance. The sophomore has been good so far, completing 64% of his passes with 11 touchdowns and just four interceptions, but he hasn't been special. He hasn't been bad, and he certainly hasn't been the reason the offense has lacked a consistent pop (the offensive line is to blame), but he's being asked to carry the offense when the ground game doesn't work. The ground game isn't going to work. Jefferson is going to have to challenge the Tide secondary and he can't play it close to the vest and hope for the best. That didn't work against Florida and it's not going to work against 'Bama. The Tide can be beaten, but only if Jefferson and LSU are willing to take a few risks.

Prediction: Alabama 23 ... LSU 13
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax

Best of the Rest
No. 15 Ohio State at No. 11 Penn State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Penn State
-4
For all intents and purposes, call this the Big Ten Championship ... for Iowa. The Hawkeyes have three games left, facing Northwestern next this week and Minnesota to close, and while they've been flaky enough to potentially have problems in both of those battles, realistically, the one real chance to derail the train to Pasadena is next week at Ohio State. If the Buckeyes beat the Nittany Lions this week, then it's game on for the Big Ten title in Columbus, with the winner almost certain to go to the Rose Bowl (Ohio State isn't going to lose at Michigan with the way RichRod's club is playing).

But if Penn State can get the win at home, then the fun and games might be over. All Iowa would have to do is win two of its last three to go to the Rose Bowl, but the Nittany Lions will be holding out hope for two Hawkeye losses to help pave the way to Cali for the second year in a row. But even if Penn State doesn't end up winning the Big Ten title outright and doesn't end up going to the Rose Bowl, this game is still important for BCS hopes. An 11-1 Nittany Lion team would be a slam-dunk to get an at-large bid to one of the big games, and a win would finally prove that this season is for real.

Penn State has faced one good team so far, Iowa, and lost at home. Yeah, Temple might end up winning the MAC and wiping up Minnesota was nice, but with no Wisconsin on the schedule and with Michigan State struggling, taking the luster off the regular season ender, this is it. This is the chance to show that the team can play a little bit and can be compared to last year's tremendous powerhouse. But to pull off the win, the hit-or-miss offense needs to come up with its best performance of the year, and the defense has to prove it can play against a team with athletes.

Prediction: Penn State 17 ... Ohio State 10
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
No. 7 Oregon at Stanford
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Oregon
-5.5
Head coach Chip Kelly will be quick to point out that his Oregon program hasn't won anything yet. Maybe, but no one can deny that the Ducks are now the overwhelming favorite to win the Pac-10 championship after sending USC back to the Paul Hackett era last Saturday night. By ending the Trojans' seven-year grip on the conference with a seventh straight win, 47-20, Oregon also stamped itself as one of the hottest teams in the country.

For Stanford, this could be the biggest game it's played since Jim Harbaugh took over a couple of years ago. Not only can the Cardinal pull to within a game of the Pac-10 leaders, it can also become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2001. Two weeks removed from a blowout of Arizona State, Stanford is well-rested and thirsty for a statement win.

Everything is clicking in Eugene. QB Jeremiah Masoli is healthy again, teaming up with freshman sensation LaMichael James to give the Ducks one of the most potent running games in the country. Heck, they just slapped around USC for 391 yards on the ground, which cannot bode well for a Stanford D that ranks in the bottom half of the league in every major category.

If there's been a hint of a crack in the Oregon D, it's been in run defense. Bruising 235-pound RB Toby Gerhart is liable to turn that crack into a full-blown opening. Ranked No. 7 nationally in rushing, he's used the last two weeks to get his ankle healthy, which was nagging before the break. He has a budding complement on offense in redshirt freshman QB Andrew Luck, who is no longer playing like a rookie. Having tossed five touchdown passes and one pick over the last three games, he now leads the Pac-10 in passing efficiency.

Prediction: Oregon 33 ... Stanford 24
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
No. 20 Oklahoma at Nebraska
Saturday, 8 p.m. ET
Line:
Oklahoma
-5.5
It just sounds good ... Oklahoma vs. Nebraska. For anyone born in the mid-1980s and later, the matchup is nothing more than a decent interdivisional game. For old farts, this is as magical as any possible college football rivalry. There's no national buzz anymore, when roughly 20 years ago this was the most important date on the college football calendar.

Now, it's just another game on the schedule, and while fans of each program still hold on to their ire for one another, it's not the same.

However, while this might not be the super-power matchup of 1987, it's still big for the Big 12 title discussion. Nebraska has played like a steaming pile of garbage over the last several weeks, but it's still in the North title hunt with three division games to close things out. Oklahoma needs a miracle to even dream of tying for the South championship, much less win it, but it can position itself for a great bowl, and if everything breaks right, an at-large BCS game by being impressive against a rough schedule.

Nebraska might be the easiest game left on the Sooner slate. The Huskers had the North for the taking after a win at Missouri, and then the offense quit playing in ugly losses to Texas Tech and Iowa State at home. A 20-10 win over Baylor last week didn't answer any questions. For all the problems and all the issues, the season can take a big left turn toward the positive with a win before going to Kansas next week.

Prediction: Oklahoma 27 ... Nebraska 20
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
No. 18 Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Oklahoma State -7
The two teams were excited about nice starts and had big chances to make statements last week, and each was put in its respective place. The Cyclones couldn't get the offense going in a 35-10 loss to Texas A&M, but that wasn't a big deal, considering it was against a team from the South. However, time is running out in the hunt for the North title, and while ISU has the talent to beat Colorado next week and has a shot at Missouri to end the season, getting bowl eligible now would be nice.

Oklahoma State has to pick itself up off the mat after getting obliterated at home by Texas in a 41-14, nationally televised loss. This still might be the second-best team in the Big 12, and an at-large BCS bid isn't out of the question, but it has to start rolling and it needs to start this week. This has been a disappointing season overall, considering this was supposed to be a national title contender, but 6-2 isn't bad and this can still be a wildly successful campaign.

This is a bad matchup for Iowa State. OSU QB Zac Robinson struggled against Texas, but he's been efficient throughout this season and he has played at times like the Big 12's best quarterback. If he gets time, he's a killer, and he'll get ten days to throw against the Cyclones. OSU leads the nation in sacks allowed, giving up just four sacks so far, and Iowa State has no pass rush whatsoever.

Prediction: Oklahoma State 34 ... Iowa State 19
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
Oregon State at No. 23 Cal
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Cal -7
While neither Oregon State nor Cal is thinking Rose Bowl at this stage of the season, both schools are determined to improve their bowl destination when they meet in Berkeley.

The Beavers played well in October, beating Arizona State, Stanford, and UCLA, and giving USC all it could handle in Los Angeles. A win would guarantee the school a postseason bid for the fourth consecutive year.

Although no one appears to be paying attention outside Strawberry Canyon, the Bears are playing their best ball of the season, winning three straight over UCLA, Washington State, and Arizona State. The win in Tempe wasn't without its frightful moments, but this weekend's visit from Oregon State will be Cal's toughest test since getting humbled by Oregon and USC. Jahvid Best vs. Jacquizz Rodgers is one of the best running back battles you'll see all season.

Ever since QB Kevin Riley started playing with more consistency, the Bears have been a totally different team on offense. His ability to spread defenses out and get the ball to athletic WR Marvin Jones have opened the field for Best and Shane Vereen to bust through seams and quickly get into the secondary.

Prediction: Oregon State 34 ... Cal 31
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
Navy at No. 19 Notre Dame
Saturday, 2:30 p.m. ET
Line:
Notre Dame -11
It was the low point of the Charlie Weis era two years ago when Notre Dame lost to Navy 46-44 to break a 43-year winning streak in the series. Now the Irish have things turned around at 6-2 and trying to go on a run to boost up the record enough to get into the BCS discussion. It's not going to be an easy final month for the Irish with road games against Pitt and Stanford, along with a home game against Connecticut, but if Navy gets hot, this could be a deathblow to big bowl hopes.

It's a contrast in styles with Notre Dame ranking eighth in the nation in passing and Navy third in the country running it. Coming off a rough loss to Temple, Navy could go on a big-time run of wins if it can pull off the upset with Delaware, Hawaii, and Army left to play.

If Notre Dame really is BCS worthy, it should be able to come up with a big performance and win easily, but Navy is Navy and it's getting healthier at the right time. Notre Dame's biggest problem is its mediocre pass defense, but the run defense isn't anything special. The stats are fine, but teams like USC and Purdue were too busy throwing the ball to bother with the ground attack. Meanwhile, the Navy secondary has been solid when the ground game is working and the defense is less exposed.

Prediction: Notre Dame 37 ... Navy 20
Complete Fearless Prediction | GameTrax
 

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