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Fearless Predictions: Pac-10

by CollegeFootballNews.com


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Updated: September 19, 2008, 12:52 AM EDT

PAC-10 FEARLESS PREDICTIONS
ACC | Big East | Big Ten | Big 12 | C-USA | MAC | MWest | Ind | Pac-10 | SEC | Sun Belt | WAC
Game of the Week
Georgia (3-0) at Arizona State (2-1)
— Saturday at 8 p.m. ET

Why to watch: Last weekend might not have been great for Georgia or Arizona State, but each will get its shot to get back in the national title picture in a big hurry. Yes, ASU can still be in the hunt for the BCS Championship over the next four games with a brutal slate against Georgia, at Cal, at USC, and Oregon. Win those four, get the national respect, be in the driver's seat for the national title ... it's just that easy. Of course, there was that overtime loss to UNLV last weekend to trip up the Sun Devil momentum, and of course it's asking way too much to win the next four games, but for the program to take the next step under head coach Dennis Erickson, it needs to prove it can win a home game like this one against a national title favorite. For Georgia, winning impressively at ASU might not carry too much weight after the Sun Devils' loss to the Rebels, but it's a national-spotlight game and chance to make a statement. It doesn't matter what anyone else does, if Georgia goes unbeaten, it's playing for the national title. However, after struggling to get by South Carolina in a 14-7 war, and with Alabama and Tennessee up next, the time is now to show everyone that USC shouldn't be handed the crystal trophy quite yet.

Why Georgia might win: The Bulldogs should have way too much offensive balance for ASU to handle. The Sun Devil defense struggled generating any pressure on UNLV QB Omar Clayton last week, and has been way too inconsistent against the run. The Georgia attack might not be crisp, but it can win any way needed. Knowshon Moreno can carry the offense for stretches, like he did against South Carolina, and Matthew Stafford is a fearless passer who doesn't make too many big mistakes. ASU will have to be perfect to pull this off, and it won't be. The D isn't great at taking the ball away, and the offense bogs down a bit too much.

Why Arizona State might win: The Georgia defensive line isn't playing like the killer it should be. Generating a steady pass rush has been a problem, and there have been way too many problems in the secondary. Granted, most of the passing yards came when Georgia Southern and Central Michigan were trying to come back, but when the quarterback isn't getting hit on a regular basis, the secondary is going to struggle. ASU has the firepower to keep up any pace.

Who to watch: The Arizona State linebacking corps might start finding people in the stands to play. The depth has been gutted by injuries and suspensions, and now the man in the middle, Gerald Munns, will have to try to fight through a banged-up hand. That means Mike Nixon will once again have to play a big role in the middle, while the rest of the linebackers have to play far better than they did last week against UNLV's spread attack.

What will happen: Arizona State will get out to an early lead, but there are too many injuries and too many issues to hold off a top team like Georgia. The Bulldogs are hurting, too, but they'll still be able to pound the ball, play good defense, and get the occasional big play from Moreno.

Line: Georgia -7

Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) ... 4

Fearless Prediction: Georgia 34 ... Arizona State 23

Arizona (2-1) at UCLA (1-1) — Saturday at 3 p.m. ET

Why to watch: What looked like a marquee matchup just a couple of days ago has lost most of its luster. Both Arizona and UCLA lost games to Mountain West teams, becoming microcosms for all that went wrong for the Pac-10 last weekend. The Bruins were assaulted by BYU, 59-0, suffering their worst loss since 1929 and squandering all of the equity they gained from beating Tennessee in the opener. Only the blind optimist felt the program was built for today, but after a public dress-down, UCLA needs to figure out if it's closer to the team that battled the Vols to an overtime win or the one that bowed down to the Cougars without a fight. Just when it looks as if Arizona is turning the corner, it goes ahead and inexplicably loses to winless New Mexico. The Lobos have a nice program, but if the Wildcats want to finally capture that elusive bowl berth, they can't afford to lose as a heavy favorite. If they can't turn things around immediately, another season is capable of slipping away.

Why Arizona might win: While absolutely nothing went right against BYU, UCLA's inability to stop the pass or pressure the quarterback is its biggest concern heading into this week. The Bruins had just one sack and allowed seven touchdown passes in a little more than three quarters with Max Hall at the controls. Arizona's strength is a passing game that ranks No. 18 in the country and has already produced nine touchdown passes. It'll be bombs away as usual for QB Willie Tuitama, who has a gem in Pac-10 leading receiver Mike Thomas and is expected to get back premier TE Rob Gronkowski, who missed the first three games.

Why UCLA might win: New Mexico provided the blueprint on how to defeat Arizona, running right at the soft underbelly of an inexperienced and undersized defense. The Wildcats allowed 221 yards on the ground, which wore down the D and kept the high-powered offense on the shelf for long periods of time. Despite the Bruins' problems on the offensive line and the questionable health of RB Kahlil Bell, they plan to attack the Arizona D and expose its weakness in run defense.

Who to watch: If Gronkowski can shake off the rust from a month of inactivity, he'll give the Wildcats another dangerous weapon in the aerial game. Just a sophomore, he already has the look of an NFL tight end and can stretch the Bruin defense with his long stride and good speed. With Thomas and Delashaun Dean commanding attention on the outside, Gronkowski will be a force working the middle of the field.

What will happen: As much as UCLA wants to establish the run, there's a reason it ranks 119th nationally on the ground. Instead, Arizona will dictate the tempo of the game, moving the ball through the air and staying one step ahead of the disjointed Bruin offense,

Line: Arizona -2.5

Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) ... 3

Fearless Prediction: Arizona 31 ... UCLA 24

Boise State (2-0) at Oregon (3-0) — Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET

Why to watch: The quarterbacks may be dropping like flies, but that hasn't kept Oregon from opening 3-0 and moving up to No. 17 in the AP poll. Even with starter Justin Roper on the sidelines with a knee injury, the Ducks erased a halftime deficit and beat Purdue for a meaningful road victory. At least for the next few weeks, the offense will be in the hands of first-year players Chris Harper and Jeremiah Masoli. With wins over Idaho State and Bowling Green, Boise State is unbeaten and inching toward in the Top 25. The Broncos will get there with a win in Eugene, their first road game and true test of the season. In a role reversal, they're putting their fate in the hands of the defense as the offense adjusts to a handful of new starters.

Why Boise State might win: How many more hits can the Oregon offense endure? Roper was the backup until Nate Costa was lost for the season and Harper, the likely starter, was in high school last fall. The Bronco defense is playing exceptionally well, yielding a single touchdown in each of the first two games. Ends Mike T. Williams and Ryan Winterswyk form a disruptive bookend up front, and Kyle Wilson is a lockdown corner capable of taking one of the Duck receivers out of the mix.

Why Oregon might win: Boise State's problems on offense, specifically the offensive line, will cost the program this weekend. The Broncos survived their first scoreless second half at home in two decades, but won't be as fortunate against a quality Pac-10 opponent. The Ducks will attack the rebuilt Boise line with ends Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu, forcing rookie QB Kellen Moore to hurry his throws. The Broncos' ample reserves of skill-position talent will be neutralized by Jairus Byrd, Patrick Chung and Walter Thurmond, Oregon's trio of all-league-caliber defensive backs.

Who to watch: While Reed entered the season with more publicity and career sacks, Tukuafu has upstaged him through the first three games. He already has a team-high five tackles for loss and four sacks, and was a beast in the win over Purdue. His continued emergence makes it impossible for teams to double up on either side of the line.

What will happen: Yes, the injuries at quarterback have made the Ducks more vulnerable, but not this Saturday. They'll rally behind the play of the defense and the running of Jeremiah Johnson and LeGarrette Blount to offset a decline in production from the new signal-callers.

Line: Oregon -10.5

Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) ... 3.5

Fearless Prediction: Oregon 31 ... Boise State 17

Portland State (1-1) at Washington State (0-3) — Saturday at 7 p.m. ET

Why to watch: Even with a new staff and a tough stretch to start the season, Washington State couldn't have imagined things would be this bad in 2008. The Cougars have been blown out in three straight games, the most recent a 45-17 spanking from Baylor. First-year head coach Paul Wulff tried juggling his lineup, including a switch at quarterback, but the results were the same. Clearly the worst program in the Pac-10, Wazzu has to handle Portland State, the only opponent it'll be favored to beat. The Vikings are led by former NFL coach Jerry Glanville, who still favors the run-and-shoot offense. They've split their first two games, beating Western Oregon before dropping a shootout with UC-Davis.

Why Portland State might win: The Vikings like to air it out with QB Drew Hubel and one of the most productive passing attacks in the FCS. Hubel is No. 4 in the country in total offense, and is flanked by a deep collection of receivers. Although the competition has certainly been better, Washington State has shown no ability to play defense or tackle in the open field, allowing 50 points and 475 yards a game. Even Baylor, which is not known for creating fireworks, lit up the Cougar D for 555 yards.

Why Washington State might win: The Wazzu D is bad. Portland State is worse. The Vikings got steamrolled by UC-Davis for 588 yards and 29 first downs. The Cougars finally have a chance to work on the new spread offense versus a team that won't match their size or speed. If a wrist injury doesn't get in the way, Kevin Lopina will get his second start at quarterback. A more mobile option than Gary Rogers, he'll frustrate the Vikings with his arm and legs. If they decide to keep it simple, Washington State will run Dwight Tardy and Chris Ivory without a lot of resistance.

Who to watch: The Cougars need to find ways to get the ball in the hands of WR Jeshua Anderson. An Olympic-caliber sprinter, he was sharp in his first full game back from a hernia injury, catching a career-high five passes for 57 yards. A budding complement to Brandon Gibson, he flashes plenty of potential as a game-changer in the open field.

What will happen: Now this is more your speed, Washington State. The Cougars will get a chance to be the bully for a change, moving the smaller Portland State players off the ball and opening things up for Tardy to have a big day. Don't get used to it. The Pac-10 schedule resumes next week.

Line: No LIne

Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) ... 11

Fearless Prediction: Washington State 35 ... Portland State 24

San Jose State (2-1) at Stanford (1-2) — Saturday at 9 p.m. ET

Why to watch: In a matter of two weeks, Stanford has gone from a program on the rise to the same old Cardinal. After opening with a surprising win over Oregon State, Stanford has lost consecutive games to Arizona State and TCU along with all of its momentum. It needs to recapture that mojo this week because the next two games are away from The Farm and the rest of the schedule isn't especially forgiving. San Jose State is playing better with each passing week. Two weeks ago, the Spartans outgained Nebraska in Lincoln before imploding in the fourth quarter. And last Saturday, they destroyed San Diego State in every facet of the game. It's a dangerous and improving team that's going to make a lot of noise in the WAC.

Why San Jose State might win: The Spartan defense has really begun to gel around DE Carl Ihenacho, DT Jarron Gilbert and CB Coye Francies. It leads the WAC in every major statistical category and went toe-to-toe with Nebraska on the road two weeks ago. Ihenacho has been the chief catalyst, pulling a rare triple crown as the team leader in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks. The Spartan pressure will create headaches for a Stanford offensive line that continues to have problems in pass protection.

Why Stanford might win: The weakest link on San Jose State is the offensive line, which is allowing way too many sacks in September. The Cardinal will pounce on the opportunity by bringing pressure from the second and third lines of defense. Linebackers Clinton Snyder and Pat Maynor possess tremendous range and a knack for making plays behind the line of scrimmage. If it comes down to special teams, advantage Stanford. The Spartans have been a mess in this area, getting nothing from P Philip Zavala or PK Jared Strubeck.

Who to watch: Spartan QB Kyle Reed never got a chance to beat Stanford in The Big Game when he was at Cal, which makes this week's matchup a little more special. He's a big part of the reason why San Jose State is trending upward, combining great feet with improving comfort in the pocket. Reed showed signs of peaking last week, rushing for three scores and connecting on 20-of-25 pass attempts.

What will happen: Stanford better be on upset alert because Dick Tomey and his Spartans are arriving on a mission. Although the Cardinal has the slight edge in overall talent, the two schools are heading in opposite directions. San Jose State will jump out to an early lead behind Reed and get a late defensive stand to preserve a pivotal road victory.

Line: Stanford -9

Must See Rating: (5 Hole in the Wall - 1 First Blood) ... 2.5

Fearless Prediction: San Jose State 24 ... Stanford 21


For more previews, predictions and prognostications, go to the CollegeFootballNews.com.

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