Fearless Predictions: MAC
by CollegeFootballNews.com
| MAC FEARLESS PREDICTIONS |
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Ball State (3-0) at Indiana (2-0) |
Why to watch: To the untrained eye, this looks like yet another cupcake game for the downtrodden Big Ten. Of course, Ball State isn't just some team to tune up against. The Cardinals have a loaded offense with the firepower to score on anyone, but they need a signature win. Beating Navy on national TV was nice, and starting off the MAC season with a win over Akron was a must, but a win over Indiana would jump-start the season to another level with the conference slate kicking in full-force starting the following week. While this is BSU's one chance to make a big statement, it's also the first real game for Indiana after playing Western Kentucky and Murray State. Predictably, the Hoosiers have been dominant so far, and they need to take advantage of the first half of the season with five home games in the first six with Michigan State coming to Bloomington next week. Why Ball State might win: The biggest question mark on the IU defense coming into the season was the corner situation after losing two excellent playmakers in Tracy Porter and Leslie Majors. While the secondary was fine against the cupcakes, it'll be in for a major test against a Ball State passing game averaging 308 yards per game and is the fourth most efficient in America. Why Indiana might win: Ball State has only allowed one sack in three games, but it hasn't faced anyone with any semblance of a pass rush. Indiana has one of the nation's best pass rushes, made better by the return of Greg Middleton from an early suspension. IU has seven sacks and 15 tackles for loss in two games, and while Ball State's O line is far better than Western Kentucky's or Murray State's, there should be steady pressure on Davis. Who to watch: Oh yeah, Kellen Lewis. All the pro talk and most of the hype is around Davis and the high-octane Cardinal passing attack, but Lewis is a star, too. He has completed 67% of his passes for 314 yards and two touchdowns with an interception in the first two games, and he tore off 185 rushing yards and two scores on nine carries against WKU. Last year, Lewis was brilliant against the Cardinals throwing for a season-high 354 yards and four touchdowns, while rushing for 52 yards. Davis threw for 332 yards and a touchdown, but he also threw two interceptions. What will happen: Davis will get his yards, but he'll also be sacked four times. Indiana will hit a few home runs with its running game, with Lewis and Marcus Thigpen each tearing off big scoring runs, in what should be a fun offensive shootout. Line: Indiana -3.5 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 3 Fearless Prediction: Indiana 38 ... Ball State 31
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Why to watch: It should be a positive sign that things are improving at Northwestern under head coach Pat Fitzgerald that the team is 3-0 and winning rather easily even though it's not playing well. The offense isn't quite clicking and the defense has been spotty, but 3-0 is 3-0, even if it's against Syracuse, Duke and Southern Illinois. With the Big Ten season kicking off next week at Iowa, the Wildcats need to sharpen up the attack, but they can't look past an Ohio team that might be the MAC's hard-luck story of the 2008 season. The Bobcats should've won at Wyoming, could've won at Ohio State, and almost won against Central Michigan, but are 0-3 and in desperate need of a break. With three road games to follow a layup against VMI, Ohio needs this win to turn its season around. Why Ohio might win: The Bobcat secondary should provide a few problems for the sputtering Wildcat passing game. Northwestern has been able to run the ball well, but the passing attack has been hit or miss. The offense changed things up this off-season with a more quick-timed passing game, and while there have been some nice runs, there hasn't been much in the way of consistency. Ohio has the corners to keep the outside passes to a minimum. Why Northwestern might win: Turnovers. Northwestern has only come up with two takeaways, and has only lost the ball twice, while Ohio has had major turnover issues losing the ball nine times so far with four fumbles and five interceptions. Northwestern is getting good pressure from the defensive front, and if it's able to disrupt the Ohio offense and force QB Boo Jackson to rush, the mistakes will come. Who to watch: It has taken a few years, but Northwestern DE Corey Wootton is starting to play like the killer all-around playmaker many expected him to be as a true freshman. With NFL prototype size and excellent quickness to go along with his experience, he has come up with four sacks in three games and 12 tackles. He's growing into a dominant playmaker. What will happen: The Northwestern running game will control one side of the field, while the pass rush will control the other. Ohio will outgain the Wildcats through the air, but two key turnovers will allow NU to pull away in the second half. Line: Northwestern -10.5 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2.5 Fearless Prediction: Northwestern 24 ... Ohio 17
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Why to watch: This is a far different and far better Temple team than the one that lost to Penn State 31-0 last year, but this is also a far different and far better Penn State team. The Nittany Lions have come out roaring in dominant wins over Coastal Carolina, Oregon State and Syracuse, and while they're still waiting for their first decent test, they've done what they're supposed to do against inferior competition. With Illinois coming up next week, and no real week off in the Big Ten season, everything has to keep on rolling this week for an offense averaging 55 points and 536 yards per game. Temple could be 3-0 and the story of the college football season just as easily as it is 1-2. It took overtime for UConn to beat the Owls in a battle of field goals, and it took a Hail Mary from Buffalo to win last week's thriller. On game two of a rough stretch of four road trips in five games, a good performance here would be a plus going into a home game against Western Michigan next week. Why Temple might win: Adam DiMichele. The veteran Temple quarterback deserved the win against Buffalo last week as he calmly and coolly led the offense to a late scoring drive that should've been enough to pull out the big road MAC win. Had the Hail Mary been knocked down, it would be DiMichele getting all the MAC pub this week. He's a steady, tough leader who's doing a better job of keeping the chains moving this year. He won't be fazed by Penn State's speed and talent. Why Penn State might win: The Nittany Lions will get off the bus and run for 200 yards. The offensive line has been more than just dominant so far and it should obliterate a Temple defensive front that's allowing 201 rushing yards per game and isn't getting any sort of a pass rush. The line has allowed one sack in three games. Who to watch: Daryl Clark remains the starting quarterback after a hot start with five touchdown passes, no interceptions, and enough of a running game to keep defenses honest, but that doesn't mean Joe Paterno isn't interested in playing around with the situation. Pat Devlin, who was in the thick of the quarterback battle this off-season, got meaningful early work last week against Syracuse. Paterno seems to be doing this to keep Devlin in the mix, but it was enough to stir up a little bit of a controversy, even if there isn't one. What will happen: Penn State will keep on rolling. Unlike last year, Temple will score, but the defense will allow 350 rushing yards and a big Derrick Williams kick return in the easy Nittany Lion win. Line: Penn State -28 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2 Fearless Prediction: Penn State 41 ... Temple 10
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Why to watch: This is supposed to be the easy part of the Army schedule after starting the season off with Temple and New Hampshire. Not quite. The Black Knights haven't exactly set the world on fire losing the first two games by a total of 49 to 17, and with Texas A&M next to kick off a string of three road games in the next four, this becomes a must-win over Akron. The Zips were able to thump Syracuse two weeks ago but lost the MAC opener against Ball State. With Cincinnati up next, Akron has to win this game or be in real trouble over the first half of the season. Why Akron might win: Everyone is able to run on Akron and its quirky defensive alignment, but for this week, the three man front should be a plus. The speed and numbers in the defensive back eight should be able to swarm around the Army outside running game that's averaging 190 yards so far, but hasn't been anything special. Why Army might win: Akron can run the ball a bit, but it's been living and dying with the rhythm passing game. Chris Jacquemain can be deadly when he gets time to work, and while Army might not have a great pass rush, the secondary hasn't been all that bad so far. The Zips might have the defense that can deal with the Army ground game, but they have to prove it after allowing 271 yards per game over the first three. Who to watch: Of all the options in the new Army running attack, it's senior Collin Mooney who's getting the most work. Nothing flashy, he leads the team with 138 rushing yards and has been used a bit as a receiver. He's the first option in the ground attack, and if he's effective, the rest of the ground game should work. What will happen: Army's offense will come up with 250 yards, but it won't be nearly enough as Akron's offense will be too balanced and too effective. Line: Akron -10 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1.5 Fearless Prediction: Akron 38 ... Army 20
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Why to watch: There has finally been a Maryland sighting. After two forgettable games against Delaware and Middle Tennessee State, the latter a loss, the Terps rose up and shocked unbeaten Cal, 35-27, in a game that was more one-sided than the score looked. Has the program turned the corner? That's probably a reach considering its maddening inconsistency. With Eastern Michigan up next, however, Maryland has a chance to build a head of steam before the pivotal game at Clemson a week later. After opening with a rout over Indiana State, the Eagles reverted back to old form, getting dumped by Michigan State and Toledo. There are no delusions of grandeur in Ypsilanti, where the home team hasn't had a winning season since 1995. Why Eastern Michigan might win: Which Terrapin offense will show up? Sure, Maryland scored five touchdowns last week, but it only gained 297 yards and was held in check by Delaware and Middle Tennessee State, hardly defensive giants. An Eagle secondary that's holding opponents to less than a 50% completion percentage will frustrate erratic QB Chris Turner, turning the Terrapins into a one-dimensional attack. Why Maryland might win: That one dimension, the Terp running attack, will be enough to zoom past an Eastern Michigan offense that has no passing game and has scored just 27 points over the last two weeks. Running behind one of the biggest offensive lines in the country, Da'Rel Scott has been a revelation, averaging 135 yards a game on the ground. He's questionable with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, but freshman Davin Meggett has proven to be capable when given a chance. The Eagles have yielded 671 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground the last two games, so it's no mystery what the Terps will be aiming to do when they have the ball. Who to watch: With better support from the quarterback position, Maryland's Darrius Heyward-Bey would be in the same discussion with some of the best receivers in the country. He's that good. While his numbers don't always show it, he's a big burner with the jets to erupt at a moment's notice. The Terps will continue searching for unique ways to get the ball in his hands. What will happen: For a change, Maryland isn't going to mess around with an inferior opponent or make things interesting late in the second half. Instead, the Terps will sucker punch Eastern Michigan right from the opening drive, wearing out a smaller defense with a non-stop dose of runs between the tackles. Even if Scott is a scratch, they'll control the clock and grind out more than 200 yards on the ground. Line: Maryland -21.5 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2 Fearless Prediction: Maryland 35 ... East Carolina 16
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Why to watch: Cincinnati's situation at quarterback suffered a major blow when Dustin Grutza was lost for the season with a broken leg suffered in the blowout loss to Oklahoma. Just when the Bearcats felt they'd gotten past not having Ben Mauk, they're being forced to move forward with Tony Pike behind center. The junior has never started a game, meaning head coach Brian Kelly is going to earn his reputation as a developer of quarterbacks. For Miami, the battle for the Victory Bell is the final non-conference game in what has been a rough stretch on the schedule. After losing games against Vanderbilt and Michigan to start the season, the RedHawks broke into the win column last week at the expense of Charleston Southern. In the wide-open MAC East, they remain in the mix for a division crown. Why Miami might win: The RedHawk defense will provide a tough test for Pike in his first career start. The linebackers, in particular, form a fantastic trio, but they haven't played up to their talent and potential yet this year. Clayton Mullins, Joey Hudson, and Caleb Bostic are rugged run-stuffers who'll keep the pedestrian Cincy ground game quiet, forcing Pike to make plays through the air. If the Bearcat offensive line keeps having problems in pass protection, it'll be a long night for the entire offense. Why Cincinnati might win: Now more than ever, the Bearcat defense is going to need to step up and assert itself. Sure, the unit was gutted by Oklahoma, but Miami's attack won't be confused with the Sooner offense. In fact, until pasting lowly Charleston Southern, the RedHawks only managed to ring up one touchdown in the first two games. Turnover-prone QB Daniel Raudabaugh should have major problems with Mike Mickens, DeAngelo Smith, and one of the most athletic defensive backfields in the Big East. Who to watch: As good as the Cincinnati defense can be, it still needs more outside pressure from players like DE Connor Barwin. A converted tight end, he's been making a smooth transition to the defensive side of the ball. After abusing Eastern Kentucky for three tackles for loss and two sacks, he was quiet against the Oklahoma tackles. The RedHawk front doesn't pose nearly the same challenge, so Barwin should get back in the boxscore for getting his hands on Raudabaugh. What will happen: It'll be back to basics for Cincinnati, which will lean heavily on the strength of the program, its defense. The Bearcats won't need Pike to be great, relying on three interceptions and a total effort from the D to keep the Victory Bell in the Queen City for a third straight year. Line: Cincinnati -11.5 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2 Fearless Prediction: Cincinnati 31 ... Miami University 10
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Why to watch: In case you didn't get enough of the two games these two played last season, here's the third installment of what should be an offensive shootout. Purdue won the regular season game 45-22, and then survived a thriller of a Motor City Bowl with Curtis Painter throwing for 546 yards in a 51-48 win. CMU hasn't quite shown the same offensive pop so far this year, but it's 1-0 in conference play after beating Ohio last week. Purdue had a chance to make a huge statement but gave away (cough, choked, cough) a 32-26 overtime loss to Oregon despite taking a big early lead and having a chance to win it in regulation with a field goal. The Boilermakers go on the road three times in the next four games after this with a trip to Notre Dame next week and a date at Ohio State following a home game against Penn State. In other words, Purdue needs to win this game. CMU is CMU, so It'll likely get blasted this week, and then continue its hex on the MAC world during a three-game home stretch against Buffalo, Temple and Western Michigan. Why Central Michigan might win: CMU has the offense to keep up the pace in a shootout, even if it hasn't quite been unleashed in full-force yet this season, but it'll need something special to pull off the upset. Watch out for Antonio Brown and the punt return game that leads the nation with a 34.75-yard average. Meanwhile, Purdue is struggling with its punting averaging a miserable 25.92 net yards per boot. Why Purdue might win: The Chippewa defense is a bit better than last year when it was among the worst in America in several areas, but it's not better by a whole bunch. The secondary, despite the help from a decent pass rush, is allowing 285 yards per game and is due to get torched by a Purdue passing game that has been fine, but nothing special so far. QB Curtis Painter is too good, and even with the new starters at receiver, the passing game is too strong to not blow past the 300-yard mark. Who to watch: With Jaycen Taylor out, Purdue RB Kory Sheets has taken over the full-time rushing duties and has grown into a superstar. He ripped off a big early 80-yard touchdown run against Oregon and finished with 180 yards and two scores on the day, and while he has the hands to be a part of the passing game, he has yet to be a major part of the attack with just six catches for 35 yards. Purdue is still a passing team, but Sheets is changing all of that. What will happen: Both offenses will get rolling. Dan LeFevour and the Central Michigan running game will rumble on the mediocre Purdue run defense, but it'll be the Purdue balance, mixed in with a big kickoff return or two from Sheets, that'll keep the Chippewas at arm's length. Line: Purdue -10.5 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 3 Fearless Prediction: Purdue 45 ... Central Michigan 27
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Why to watch: Buffalo has proven to be a real, live contender for the MAC title after coming up with a great win over Temple, complete with a thrilling Hail Mary for a 30-28 win. With a good performance against Pitt and a blowout win over UTEP, this isn't the UB doormat of past seasons. While it's not good enough to beat Missouri without a major meltdown from the Tigers, it should provide a decent test for at least a quarter. Mizzou has been rocking and rolling from the start putting up 52 points against both Illinois and SE Missouri State before blowing up Nevada in a 69-17 win. The Tigers lead the nation in total offense, and they get one more tune-up before kicking off the Big 12 season at Nebraska. Why Buffalo might win: UB might not have the firepower to keep up with the Tiger attack, but it has a veteran quarterback in Drew Willy who's been a master of his offense. He's unflappable with the ability to spread the ball around and keep the chains moving. Ultra-efficient, he and the Buffalo passing attack should be able to crank out over 300 yards. Why Missouri might win: The Buffalo pass defense couldn't handle Temple's Adam DiMichele. Chase Daniel is the souped-up version of the Owl veteran. The Buffalo defensive back seven isn't strong enough to shut down any phase of the Missouri passing game, while there isn't enough talent on the defensive line to provide a steady pass rush. Who to watch: Missouri all-around star Jeremy Maclin has been even better than expected. It helps that Daniel is putting the ball in places where his sophomore sensation can do something with it, but Maclin is making big things happen on his own. Showing no signs of the ankle injury that knocked him out of the opener against Illinois, he caught six passes for 172 yards and three touchdowns last week after catching two passes for 20 yards and a score against SE Missouri State. He hasn't been used too much as a runner, but he's been tremendous on kickoff returns averaging 36.8 yards per try. What will happen: Buffalo will get the offense moving just enough to annoy Mizzou for a half, and then Daniel and company will go on a major run to put the game away early in the third quarter. Line: Missouri -34 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2 Fearless Prediction: Missouri 48 ... Buffalo 17
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Why to watch: Northern Illinois will get the first win in the Jerry Kill era against one of the nation's worst FCS teams, if not the worst. NIU is on a four game losing streak and hasn't had a whole bunch of fun over the last few years, but a rebuilding Indiana State is on a 16-game slide and has started out with losses to Eastern Michigan and Eastern Illinois by a combined score of 90 to 3. Why Indiana State might win: For all the problems the Sycamores have on both sides of the ball, the offensive line hasn't been all that bad. It's been decent in pass protection and it's been able to get the ground game moving a little bit. NIU has thrown the ball over the first two games, while the ISU secondary hasn't been abysmal. Why Northern Illinois might win: This really is a bad ISU team. It has a nightmare of a time finding any pop and putting up any points. NIU might be 0-2, but it could easily by 2-0 with the right play here and there in the close calls against Minnesota and Western Michigan. The Huskies have far more explosion and could put the game away with one big pass play. Who to watch: Who's actually running the ball for NIU? Justin Anderson was supposed to be the start to revolve the attack around, but he only has 38 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries while Meco Brown and DeMarcus Grady have been more effective. The NIU offensive line hasn't been anything special, but the backs have to do their part to up the play of the offense. What will happen: Northern Illinois will be able to call its shot in the home opener. Anything less than a 30 point win will be a major disappointment. Indiana State 6 ... Line: No Line Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1 Fearless Prediction: Northern Illinois 45
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Why to watch: If UL Lafayette the team that got steamrolled over by Southern Miss in an ugly 51-21 opening day loss, or is it the team that gave Illinois a mega-push in a 20-17 loss in Champaign? Kent State wasn't awful against Boston College and Iowa State, but lost both games by a total of 41 points. The Golden Flashes have a terrific running game, but they haven't been able to show it off much yet. Meanwhile, the Ragin' Cajuns, a strong running team over the past few years, has come up with a decent balance. This is ULL's last home game for around a month when Arkansas State comes to town. Why Kent State might win: Illinois was able to rush for 194 yards, and while it struggled and sputtered at times, it moved well on occasion. Kent State's speed and quickness in the backfield, thanks to RB Eugene Jarvis and QB Julian Edelman, and these two should be able to combine for well over 200 yards. Southern Miss gouged ULL for 427 rushing yards. Why UL Lafayette might win: Kent State can't stop turning the ball over. With 10 turnovers so far, and only two takeaways, the Golden Flashes have been behind the eight-ball far too often. The last thing the team needs is to lose the breaks battle; it doesn't have the passing game or the ability to come back. Kent State's defense has been fine, but it hasn't done any one thing well. Who to watch: Edelman doesn't have to be Peyton Manning, but he has to be efficient. He threw three touchdown passes in the loss to Iowa State, and four interceptions with no touchdown passes in the other two games. He's a runner, and an occasionally a deadly one, but the more he can get things moving through the air, and if he can come up with just one big early throw to loosing things up, the offense should roll. What will happen: Kent State has more talent and the more effective running game, but the Ragin' Cajuns will take advantage of the home game to pull off its first win of the year. The balanced offense will be the difference. Line: UL Lafayette -3 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1.5 Fearless Prediction: UL Lafayette 26 ... Kent State 20
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Why to watch: The entire year and the entire self-worth of Fresno State appeared to be tied in to the battle against Wisconsin. This was FSU's chance to show just how strong it is against the biggest of the big boys, and strange penalties aside, Pat Hill's crew went to-to-toe with the Badgers in a game that could've gone either way. All BCS hope isn't completely lost, but the Bulldogs have to start generating a buzz again by winning a game like this against a dangerous Toledo team. The Rockets are 1-1, but they've been abysmal getting the offense moving. Last among MAC teams in total and scoring offense, Toledo has to be ready to be more productive in what should be a battle of big plays. Why Fresno State might win: Toledo hasn't shown any sort of pop to the offense so far averaging a mere 142 passing yards in each of the first two games. Aaron Opelt has been efficient, but he hasn't cranked out the yards. Toledo's secondary will give up big plays, and Fresno State should be able to take advantage with its quick strike offense able to take control at any time. If they take a deep breath and relax after last week, FSU's offense should come through with a solid, balanced performance. Why Toledo might win: Let down, let down, let down. Fresno State had to travel across the country to face Rutgers, and then came back to its own place to face Wisconsin. With UCLA up next, Fresno State will hardly be of sound mind and body. Thee Rockets need the stars to succeed. Toledo wants the same thing. Who to watch: Opelt has been decent, but he hasn't exactly scared anyone. The junior has thrown four touchdown passes and only one interception, but he hasn't provided too much of a spark. He has the legs to run on occasion, and the arm to bomb away, and he'll need to do both to keep Fresno State on its heels. What will happen: Toledo will strike early with two key scores, but Fresno State will chip away until it finally comes up with one big game-changing drive that'll change the game around. The Bulldog offensive line, injuries and all, will control the second half. Line: Fresno State -7 Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 2.5 Fearless Prediction: Fresno State 34 ... Toledo 23
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Why to watch: Western Michigan is 2-1, as expected, with wins over Northern Illinois and Idaho, and a loss to Nebraska, but it's an underwhelming 2-1. The defense hasn't been anywhere near the killer it's supposed to be, and the offense, while fine, isn't anything special. That's what Tennessee Tech is for. The Golden Eagles got blasted by Louisville 51-10 but managed to sneak by Gardner-Webb and SE Missouri State. This is the last chance at a FBS win this year, while WMU has a run of three road games in the next four kicking off at Temple next week. Why Tennessee Tech might win: Western Michigan can be thrown on. Despite the killer pass rush, the Broncos are giving up passing yards in bunches allowing 325 yards per game. It's not like Northern Illinois or Idaho have special passing attacks, and they were able to throw without a problem. Tennessee Tech is averaging over 200 passing yards per game so far. Why Western Michigan might win: Louisville was able to move the ball on Tennessee Tech with a near perfect balance, and WMU should be able to do the same. The Bronco running game is way overdue to break out, while Tim Hiller and the passing attack should be able to crank out 300 yards without a problem. Who to watch: After getting shut down by Nebraska, gaining just 29 yards with a touchdown on 12 carries, WMU junior RB Brandon West has been a strong past of the attack with 175 yards against NIU and 96 against Idaho. With his quickness, he's also a big part of the passing game and a top return man. He'll do it all this week. What will happen: Western Michigan will come up with at least six sacks and the offense will be as consistent as it's been in a long, long time. Expect 500 yards of Bronco offense. Line: No Line Must See Rating: (5 Dr. 90210 - 1 Biggest Loser: Families) ... 1 Fearless Prediction: Western Michigan 45 ... Tennessee Tech 17
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