by Pete Fiutak

Updated: March 9, 2008, 2:30 AM EST 75 comments

add this RSS blog email print

Some big-name coaches will be gone if they don't have big seasons, some will be on double-secret probation in 2009 without a strong '08, and some just need to turn things around and make their already good programs special again.

Three who'll be gone without a big year

Chuck Long, San Diego State: This isn't exactly how things were supposed to work out. This was Chuck Long, a college football legend and rising offensive mastermind who helped keep the Oklahoma offense booming, coming to San Diego State, a supposed sleeping lion of a program that just needed a few breaks and a little head coaching star power to become a major Mountain West player. This was supposed to be a stepping stone for Long as he swooped in for a few years and made the Aztecs strong before inevitably leaving for a bigger-name school. Even with loads of offensive experience returning last year and a NFL-caliber quarterback in Kevin O'Connell, the offense didn't exactly take off, and the defense continued to be lousy, giving Long a 7-17 record in two years. Injuries have been a problem, and Long likely won't be canned even with a third straight lousy season. There had better be some positive signs or 2009 will be a make-or-break season.

Greg Robinson, Syracuse: How in the name of Skaneateles is Greg Robinson still the head football coach at Syracuse? Who would've ever thought Orange fans would be pining for the Paul Pasqualoni era? In three years, his teams have produced a 7-28 record, with two of those wins coming against Buffalo, one against a 2006 Miami of Ohio squad that went 2-10, and one against a 2006 Illinois team that went 2-10. Worse yet, the attendance isn't there and very soon, it's going to be a straight money issue if the fan base doesn't start coming back. Robinson said he's going to start doing more with the defense and he has a few fantastic offensive pieces to build around, but the time to let the program grow is over. There has to be a major sign of improvement, or else things will change . . . and quickly.

Mike Stoops, Arizona: In four years, Stoops has gone 17-29 without a bowl appearance. It seems like Arizona is the Breakthrough Program To Watch every season, but it hasn't happened yet while that other team up the road in Tempe appears to be on the verge of really, really big things. The team always teases with big wins — like last year's victory over Oregon and the 24-20 win over Cal two years ago — but it's never consistent. Considering UA hasn't been to a bowl game since the 1998 Holiday Bowl win over Nebraska to close out a 12-1 season, the fan base isn't going to be patient for too much longer.

Four who'll get one more chance even with a bad '08

Steve Kragthorpe, Louisville: How do you have Brian Brohm, a dizzying array of offensive weapons, and the nation's sixth-best offense and still go 6-6? Oh yeah, the defense. While changes are being made in Louisville, there are living, breathing expectations for a program that won the Orange Bowl two years ago and could realistically put the words "national" and "championship" in its dreams. Considering the success of John L. Smith and Bobby Petrino, Kragthrorpe, one of the nation's hot coaches after an excellent stint at Tulsa, didn't keep the train rolling as expected. The 2007 season wasn't a total disaster as four of the six losses came by seven points or fewer, but losing to arch-rival Kentucky and to a woeful Syracuse team made the fans grouchy. This is a place that considers itself a football power now, and nothing other than being in the hunt for the Big East title will do.

Mike Price, UTEP: It's not that Price hasn't made UTEP a consistent Conference USA power, it's that his teams have gone into the tank late in the last few seasons despite having some of the best talent in the league. Remember that before Price UTEP had won two games in three straight seasons. Then he set the bar way too high with a stunning 8-4 turnaround. However, even in that big '04 campaign, the Miners lost their final two games, including a 33-28 loss to Colorado in the Houston Bowl. That started a horrible trend of poorly closing out seasons, going 0-3 in the final three games of 2005 while blowing the Conference USA title and getting blasted by Toledo in the GMAC Bowl. He went 1-5 in the final six games of 2006 and 0-6 to finish 2007, and now the program has been lapped by Houston, Tulsa and UCF, while East Carolina and SMU have been strong.

Ty Willingham, Washington: Willingham was going to show all those Notre Damers who made a big push for change in South Bend — one many thought was unwarranted — by turning around a once-giant of a Washington program. While the recruiting hasn't been bad, it hasn't exactly been lucky. For example, J.R. Hasty was one of the nation's top running backs and the jewel of Willingham's first recruiting class, but instead of being the star to build around, he was never eligible and never got a chance. Forget that Jake Locker is one of the nation's premier young stars. Pay no attention to a brutal schedule that wasn't exactly conducive to rebuilding. This is Washington, a national powerhouse that was competing for Rose Bowls and national titles not all that long ago, and going 11-25 in three seasons isn't going to get it done. Starting out this year at Oregon, against a loaded BYU, and against Oklahoma isn't exactly a way to get things back on track.

Don't underestimate the deep pockets of Notre Dame alumni, Charlie. (Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

Charlie Weis, Notre Dame: Thanks to one of the nation's best recruiting classes, Weis has bought himself at least one more lousy season with 2009 looking like something special if all the talent shines through as expected. But another 3-9 season will make things very, very ugly. Weis proved he could coach Ty Willingham's players, but when it came time to reload, he came up with the worst season in Notre Dame history, complete with a loss to Navy. Worse yet, for supposedly being an offensive mastermind, his attack was the worst in America and that simply can't happen again with a QB like Jimmy Clausen. Don't think Weis' fat contact will be a deterrent for anything — Notre Dame could buy out the head man with the loose change in its pocket.

Three coaches who won't be fired, but need their mojo back

Mack Brown, Texas: Remember, we're talking about elite of the elite of the elite expectations here. Brown went 10-3 last year with a Holiday Bowl win, and has gone 20-6 in the last two seasons. But as everyone knows, you can't lose rivalry games. Forget that the Longhorns have won 10 or more games in seven straight seasons, compared to six straight seasons at USC, three straight at Ohio State, and two at Oklahoma. They lost last year to the Sooners and lost two years in a row to Texas A&M. The rich alumni will only take guff from their Aggie and Sooner co-workers for so long.

Almost every other program would take Texas' recent record in a heartbeat. But with the national title as the goal every year, the grumbling has started again that Brown is a guy who can get the ball on the green but can't putt. Was 2005 an aberration because of an all-timer of a season from a college football legend? Did Vince Young overcome the coaching? It's not fair. Remember, only three current head coaches — Joe Paterno, Bobby Bowden and Dennis Erickson — have two D-I national championships (sorry, Pete Carroll fans, we live in a BCS world now ... you get 1.5), so the pressure on Brown is unfair. But again, this is Texas.

Kirk Ferentz's Iowa program isn't what it was a couple years ago. ( Jonathan Daniel / Getty Images)

Kirk Ferentz, Iowa: A few years ago, Ferentz was one of the nation's hottest coaches and rumored for just about every open NFL job or, at the very least, certain to bolt to one of the elite of the elite powerhouse programs after taking his talent-challenged Iowa teams to 31 wins in three seasons. Injuries and inconsistency were the theme from 2005 to 2007, going 7-5, 6-7 and 6-6 in three disappointing campaigns. While that's hardly falling off the map, the team gagged late in 2006 and completely choked last year in the regular-season finale against Western Michigan, staying home for the bowl season for the first time since 2000. Oh yeah, and Michigan and Ohio State weren't on last season's schedule. Ferentz isn't going to be fired and he's still doing a decent job, but the window has slammed shut on his shot at bolting for a bigger job. Now the question is whether or not the program is going stale. He's going into his 10th year as the head man. This is when Iowa should be rocking and rolling, not regrouping.

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina: Wasn't the Ol' Ball Coach supposed to be able to just show up and make any SEC team an instant contender? Unfortunately, the rest of the league just got really, really, really loaded with top-shelf coaches such as Nick Saban, Les Miles, Urban Meyer and Bobby Petrino to go along with established A-listers like Tommy Tuberville, Mark Richt and Houston Nutt. In other words, Spurrier is just another great coach in a league full of them. He worked a little bit of magic in his first two years and injuries took their toll on last year's squad, but now it's year four and this is his program — the buck stops under The Visor. The SEC is a cruel, heartless place, and while Spurrier will never be fired, the five-game losing streak to close out last year means he has to produce now and show the Gamecock faithful that yes, you really can win in Columbia.