Ducks on the hunt for answers at quarterback
A season after coming painfully close playing for a national championship, with the dreams dying when former QB Dennis Dixon went down with a knee injury, the Ducks are looking to reload a backfield that played such an integral role in last year's torrid 8-1 start. A new quarterback must be found, as does a new feature back to replace Jonathan Stewart.
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Add in the losses of a couple of key receivers and starting linemen, and Oregon could lean uncharacteristically on the defense in the early stages of the season. After doing a great job in his Duck debut a year ago, second-year offensive coordinator Chip Kelly will have to be even more innovative this fall, coaching up a unit that'll be without its two main sparkplugs. But at this point, the program brings in strong recruits with the talent to shine right away. And then there's the "Dixon" factor.
Raise your hands if you knew Dixon was going to be the difference between a possible national championship and the Sun Bowl. Yeah, right. He came from out of nowhere to become a superstar, and now that he's gone to the NFL, will Oregon be able to simply coach-up one of the good prospects, or was Dixon really that good? It might be a little of both.
Until the new starters on offense come around, the underappreciated and opportunistic defense, led by one of the Pac-10's best defensive backfields, could carry the team. There are offensive prospects to build around, and the coaching should be solid. But there's still last year to get over.
While the 56-21 thumping of South Florida in the bowl game might have been cathartic, 2007 will mostly be known for the epic collapse, losing the final three games of the regular season, right after beating the Pac-10's two other stars, USC and Arizona State. Can the Ducks recapture that magic of the hot start, or were the late season losses indicative of a lack of mental toughness?
If there's a little bit of patience, the Ducks should grow into a strong Pac-10 player by the middle of the season. But if three are problems after a little bit of adversity, this could be another season of wondering what might have been.
What to watch for on offense: Who replaces Dennis Dixon under center? What began as an open field has been narrowed down to a pair of very different sophomores, Nate Costa and Justin Roper. While Roper was lights out in the blowout of South Florida, Costa is the better fit in Chip Kelly's offense. He's coming off knee surgery, but has far better mobility than Roper and can make plays outside of the pocket. Although Costa has the edge, he still has plenty to prove when practice resumes in August.
What to watch for on defense: The play of the secondary. When you think Oregon football, many things come to mind and a suffocating pass defense usually isn't one of them. At least for one season, this year's squad is going to change that notion. Led by Patrick Chung, Walter Thurmond, and Jairus Byrd, the Ducks have one of the most athletic and opportunistic defensive backfields in the country. Yes, they'll give up yards, but they'll compensate by taking a bunch of passes the other way and doing a good job of erasing the mediocre receiving corps.
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| RB Jeremiah Johnson may hold the key to Oregon's season. (Jonathan Ferrey / Getty Images) |
The team will be far better if: The new quarterback can pick up where Dennis Dixon left off last November. If that quarterback happens to be Nate Costa, it's not as far-fetched as it might seem. Let's not forget that Dixon was a mess before Mike Bellotti had the foresight to name Kelly as his new offensive coordinator. Costa has now had more than a year to work with Kelly and digest his offense, and has many of the same skills that made Dixon so tough to defend a year ago.
The Schedule: Starting off the Pac-10 slate right away isn't that bad if it's a home game against Washington, but that's where the conference fun stops. The Ducks have five league road games including the three toughest dates possible: at USC, at Arizona State and at California. If that wasn't bad enough, those three come in a five-week span wrapped around a tough battle with UCLA along with an off week. Throw the road trip to Washington State into the mix and the Ducks have four away dates in five games. On the plus side, the mid-November home games against Stanford and Arizona (in a revenge date) aren't bad, and there's a week off before the Civil War at Oregon State. If the Pac-10 slate wasn't tough enough, the non-conference slate has two interesting tests at Purdue and at home against Boise State to go along with a layup against Utah State.
Best offensive player: Senior C Max Unger. A long-time model of stability for the program, Unger hasn't missed a game in his first three seasons, evolving into one of the Pac-10's best blockers and an All-America candidate. Able to play any position on the offensive line, he's a dominant all-around blocker and one of the heady leaders of the entire offense.
Best defensive player: Senior rover Patrick Chung. Part linebacker and part cornerback, Chung can do it all for the Oregon defense. A dynamic athlete with a keen field awareness, he's a bona fide playmaker who's equally effective stopping the run as he is defending the pass. One of the respected leaders of the defense, Chung put of the NFL for one more season, after coming this close to bolting, opting instead to make another run at a Rose Bowl and a likely spot on the All-America team.
Key player to a successful season: Senior RB Jeremiah Johnson. Of course, the new quarterback will be critical to Oregon's success, but Costa or Roper can be eased into the job if Johnson recaptures his pre-injury form. The Ducks are at their best on offense when balance is on display, meaning the running game might have to be even more explosive than it was a year ago. Now that Jonathan Stewart has departed, Johnson is the type of complete back who's capable of erupting with an opportunity to be more than just a backup.
The season will be a success if: The Ducks finish ranked in the final Top 25 and no worse than No. 2 in the Pac-10. With the uncertainty at quarterback and road trips to USC, Arizona State, and Cal, it's asking too much for the program to buck the recent trend and win the conference. However, there's more than enough talent on the field and on the coaching staff for Oregon to be the next best thing to the Trojans, earning a second Holiday Bowl trip in the last four years.
OFFENSE
Who'll get the ball on opening day? Dennis Dixon and his backup Brady Leaf are gone, meaning the quarterback situation will be under the microscope. Although six hurlers are on the roster, the competition will come down to Nate Costa and Justin Roper. Roper was peerless in the Ducks' Sun Bowl rout of South Florida, but the compact, mobile Costa is the better fit for the spread. With Jonathan Stewart headed to the pros and Jeremiah Johnson recovering from a knee injury, the Ducks need to build running back depth, especially with the uncertainty under center. If Johnson is slow to recover, the vaunted Oregon ground game will become the responsibility of little-used Andre Crenshaw and LeGarrette Blount, a heralded 230-pound transfer from East Mississippi Junior College.
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| Walter Thurmond III has emerged as one of the top cover corners in the nation. (Otto Greule Jr. / Getty Images) |
Quarterbacks: The Ducks got a dress rehearsal for life after Dennis Dixon when he injured his knee last fall. What was horrible news for the 2007 season will make the transition to a new quarterback far easier for this year. Whether it's Nate Costa or Justin Roper, the winner of this summer's blockbuster quarterback battle will be put in a position to succeed right away. Kelly wouldn't have it any other way. Costa, in particular, has the tools to put up solid numbers, but it'll take some time before he gets fully acclimated to his new role. Yeah, it helps that Roper got game experience late in the season, but it wasn't nearly enough to allay concerns about the position. Costa, the favorite to lead this team, has thrown just five passes for his career.
Running backs: With Jeremiah Johnson and Andre Crenshaw working the outside and JUCO transfer LeGarrette Blount doing damage on the inside, Oregon is set to regroup on the fly with a shared backfield situation that will maximize the talents of three different runners. With the addition of Blount to the stable, the Ducks now boast complimentary runners who can pound it between the tackles or bounce outside and sprint down the sidelines. It's a combination that'll keep everyone fresh. Johnson's gimpy knee is the only thing that can keep the offense from sporting a dynamic running attack for the third year in a row
Receivers: While Jaison Williams and TE Ed Dickson are firm starting points, this offense, which often goes four-wide, needs a few more receivers to step forward and beginning producing regularly. If USC transfer Jamere Holland is one of those players, everything should open up for the underneath receivers. However, even when the Ducks are posting solid numbers, dropped passes have been an on-going problem that won't seem to go away. From Williams on down, the Ducks lack the polish and consistency of an elite receiving corps.
Offensive line: The pieces are in place for Oregon to again have one of the Pac-10's most formidable offensive lines. Although two starters must be replaced, the core of an offensive line that was very good in 2007 returns intact. From Max Unger at center out to Fenuki Tupou at left tackle, the Ducks boast a dominating left side of the line that'll be the focus of the offense's running plays and quarterback's rollouts. Don't discount Jeff Kendall, who has fringe all-league potential if he can stay healthy for the entire year. Relatively speaking, right tackle Jacob Hucko is the weakest link of the line, needing to show that he can handle the starting role for the first time in his career.
DEFENSE
For a change, most of Oregon's stars this season will be on the defensive side of the ball. The Ducks lose little from Nick Aliotti's ball-hawking unit, retaining all six of the players who earned all-conference recognition a year ago. Up front, ends Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu are talented pass rushers who can also defend the run. The Jerome Boyd-led linebackers have a chance to be the best group in Eugene in years. The secondary, featuring Patrick Chung, Jairus Byrd, and Walter Thurmond, will be among the best in the West. Offenses should have their best luck running the ball right at a line that's understaffed at defensive tackle.
Defensive line: While the ends, Nick Reed and Will Tukuafu, should be fantastic for a second straight year, the fate of the line depends on how well the tackles, seniors Cole Linehan and Ra'Shon Harris, play. Linehan and Harris are steady vets who'll make plays, but Thompson is the one "X" factor capable of making an instant impact on the inside. Keeping Reed out of the backfield will be a 60-minute battle for every offensive tackle he faces. The Ducks could struggle even more than usual against the run if the new tackles aren't prepared to perform like starters.
Linebackers: While Oregon won't be confused with USC at linebacker at any point this season, the program boasts a solid unit that'll help stuff the run and create some pressure off the edge. To reach its full potential, John Bacon and Casey Matthews must be healthy for the entire year. By design, the Oregon linebackers do a nice job of shedding blocks and creating up-field pressure. On the outside, Jerome Boyd and Kevin Garrett are a couple of disruptive athletes capable of wreaking havoc on the blitz.
Secondary: Three-quarters of one of the Pac-10's best secondaries is back with an eye on becoming the best unit in the conference. The big coup was getting back rover Patrick Chung, one of the Pac-10's best all-around safeties after he came within an eyelash of turning pro early. Although they still need to tighten up a bit in coverage, these Ducks will make a ton of big plays and a ton of quarterbacks regret throwing in their direction. Chung has a penchant for separating receivers from the ball, and Jairus Byrd and Walter Thurmond combined for a dozen picks a year ago.
Special Teams: Under assistant Tom Osborne, the Ducks have come a long way in a short period of time, stabilizing a once-shaky unit. To take another stride in 2008, it must develop new return men and shore things up the coverage teams. In a matter of one season, PK Matt Evensen and P Josh Syria both made the trek from question marks to stable elements of the special teams. Both exhibit outstanding pop and improving technique as they near the end of their Duck careers. For the second straight year, the Ducks were a little leaky in both punt and kickoff coverage, finishing in the Pac-10's second tier in both categories.
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