by Rich Cirminiello

Updated: July 3, 2008, 12:41 PM EST 22 comments

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The Cavaliers and their fans enjoyed a special run last year, squeezing into the Top 25 and playing on New Year's Day, but the good times came to a screeching halt with a collapse against Texas Tech in the 31-28 Gator Bowl loss, and the hits are going to keep on coming.

While just about everything went right for head coach Al Groh, it's not as if Virginia was destroying opponents en route to an unexpected 9-4 mark. So when the program that won five games by two points or fewer gets ravaged by graduation and a spate of off-field problems, logic dictates that those close games will begin going the other way. Basically, you don't get the same big breaks twice, and inexperienced teams don't tend to win the close ones.

The conventional wisdom is that the Cavs overachieved last year with a few great players, a solid kicking game and an average overall supporting cast. With DE Chris Long and G Branden Albert headed to the NFL, the lines lose two special players. Making matters worse, this was supposed to be QB Jameel Sewell's breakout year, but he and a few other starters have been declared academically ineligible.

With a schedule that begins with USC and ends with Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers will be hard-pressed to win seven games. With so many underclassmen filling important spots in the two-deep, this season will be about laying a foundation for much better results in 2009.

But is it really all gloom and doom? Raise your hands if you thought the Cavs would win nine last year. No, this won't be a world-beater, but the ACC isn't the SEC this season, and Groh has done more with less. The program has cranked out five winning seasons in the last six and has seemingly always been able to surprise. That'll have to be the case again.

What to look for on offense: Things open up a little bit. Virginia won't be channeling Texas Tech any time soon, but some of the program's coaches did spend time in Lubbock in the offseason trying to pick the complex brain of Red Raider head coach Mike Leach. While the attack will still strive for balance, new quarterback Peter Lalich gives the offense a young hurler with the live arm needed to distribute the ball to an improving receiving corps.

What to look for on defense: The secondary will struggle against quality passing teams. Yes, there's talent in the defensive backfield, but most of it is young and prone to making mistakes in coverage. The Cavs were helped immensely last year by the pressure generated by Chris Long and Jeffrey Fitzgerald, but both are gone, meaning opposing quarterbacks will get an extra second or two. That's troubling news for a defensive backfield breaking in three new starters.

This team will be much better if ... the offensive line adjusts on the fly to having three new starters on the inside. If the Cavaliers are stout up front, it'll mean Lalich can grow at a reasonable pace and the offense can control the tempo of games with the running of Cedric Peerman and Mikell Simpson.

The schedule: The tone could be set for the season in the opener against USC, but no one will be expecting a win. A non-conference road trip to Connecticut will also be tough, and East Carolina isn't going to be a layup. In ACC play, the Cavaliers have to deal with Wake Forest and Clemson from the Atlantic, while road trips to Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech will likely decide whether or not they're really Coastal Division contenders.

Best offensive player: Senior LT Eugene Monroe. Monroe is on target to make it three straight years that a Cavalier offensive lineman gets selected in the first round of the NFL Draft, following in the footsteps of D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Branden Albert. A nimble 6-foot-6 and 315-pound blocker, he continues to improve his overall game, sealing off all pass rushers he faced in 2007. The sky's the limit this fall, with national honors within reach now that he's finally the team's signature blocker.

Best defensive player: Senior LB Clint Sintim. Sintim is exactly what Al Groh and Virginia need in a 3-4 linebacker, someone who's tough in run defense and a beast as a pass rusher. At 6-foot-3 and 254 pounds, he sheds blockers effortlessly, racking up 77 tackles, 17 quarterback hurries and nine sacks last season. NFL scouts have already labeled him a slam-dunk draft choice next April.

Key player to a successful season: Redshirt freshman PK Chris Hinkebein. Considering how many nail-biters Virginia participated in last year, Chris Gould wound up being instrumental in the program's nine-win season. He's gone, so it'll be up to Hinkebein to send the 'Hoo fans home happy when the school gets embroiled in more close games this fall.

The season will be a success if ... Virginia bowls. If Groh and his staff can milk seven wins out of a transitioning team that has an inexperienced starting quarterback and uncertainty on both lines, it'll qualify as a head of steam for the following year. There's enough talent to get it done, especially if the Cavs show as much grit and resiliency in tight games as they did a year ago.

Offense

Without QB Jameel Sewell, the offense will likely be turned over to unproven Peter Lalich, a 6-foot-5, 225-pound flame-thrower who could be a sitting duck playing behind a rebuilt Cavalier offensive line. While the sophomore will no longer have Albert or his top two tight ends as protection, he will get WR Kevin Ogletree and RB Cedric Peerman back from serious injuries. Ogletree was slated to be Virginia's go-to receiver before tearing his ACL, while Peerman was leading the ACC in rushing when he suffered a season-ending foot injury in October. The silver lining to Peerman's absence was that it created an opportunity for Mikell Simpson, who responded with 570 yards rushing, 43 catches and 10 touchdowns in just half a season.

Quarterbacks: In January, Jameel Sewell went from the quarterback of the future to the quarterback of the past, failing to qualify academically for the upcoming season. His absence opens the door for strong-armed sophomore Peter Lalich, who earned valuable playing time as a rookie, going 35-of-61 for 321 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. None of the quarterbacks on the roster has ever started a game at Virginia, including Lalich, who's only in his second year on campus. He has tons of upside, but he still has plenty to learn and needs to cut down on the number of passes he forces into coverage. Six-foot-3, 206-pound sophomore Marc Verica and 6-foot-3, 215-pound senior Scott Deke will battle for the No. 2 job.

Mikell Simpson emerged as a multi-talented weapon late last season. (Doug Benc / Getty Images)

Running backs: Provided Groh can keep everyone happy, there's not much to complain about with this group. Either Cedric Peerman or Mikell Simpson is capable of being the feature back, with the latter doubling as a dangerous receiver on third and long. Rashawn Jackson will be even more effective in his second season as a pile driver who can open holes for the two primary runners. Peerman has to be 100 percent after missing half of last year with a foot injury, while Simpson has to show that his emergence late in the season wasn't a fluke. It wasn't. He's a top talent, and the ground game will be fantastic.

Receivers: Kevin Ogletree's return from a knee injury will make a world of difference for a passing game that was painfully reliant on the backs and tight ends a year ago. He'll help open up the field and create more space for John Phillips and the receivers to make plays. Still, more help is needed if the Cavs are going to open up the attack as planned. While the corps should turn out fine, the drop-off comes in a hurry after Ogletree. In three years, Maurice Covington has yet to evolve into a scary talent, and Staton Jobe and Dontrelle Inman are a couple of sophomores still learning the ropes.

Offensive line: While Virginia has lost one star blocker to the NFL in Branden Albert, it gets back another who'll be playing on Sundays before long. Senior LT Eugene Monroe is already being hailed as a possible first-round selection next April depending on how he closes his Cavalier career. Will Barker is a good tackle on the other side. With three new starters slated to slide in at guard and center, the interior has to grow up in a hurry or the Cavs will have problems with physical defensive lines that can bull rush the middle and generate backfield pressure.

Defense

Who's going to rush the passer? As if losing Chris Long isn't tough enough, the line also has to replace Jeffrey Fitzgerald, who left school. The pair combined for 21 sacks last season, leaving behind an untested set of backups who won't make life any easier for an already-vulnerable Cav secondary. Chris Cook was the team's top cover corner, but didn't keep up in the classroom, putting pressure on young Ras-I Dowling to mature even faster than he did a year ago as a true freshman. The unquestioned strength of the defense is at linebacker, where Jon Copper, Antonio Appleby and Clint Sintim represent three of last season's top seven tacklers.

Defensive line: The entire defensive line needs to be retooled, including replacing All-American and inspirational leader Chris Long. Scheduled to take over at defensive end are 6-foot-7, 270-pound senior Alex Field and 6-foot-4, 275-pound sophomore Sean Gottschalk. Field played in all 13 games a year ago, making 11 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks. He has the great size and tireless work ethic on the field and in the weight room to make a push for the NFL in his final season on campus. The tackles, led by Nate Collins, are physical and promising. There isn't much experience, especially on the second unit. The reserves have considerable upside, but there's cause for concern when all three are freshmen.

Al Groh has his work cut out for him ... again. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

Linebackers: Not only do three senior starters return to the lineup, all have enough talent to finish their careers on the All-ACC squad. With three of the top four returning tacklers coming from this group, linebacker will be the strength of the defense, and possibly the entire team. Jon Copper, Clint Sintim and Antonio Appleby will clean up a ton of messes, especially as the defensive line adjusts to having three new starters. The future star among the underclassmen is redshirt freshman J'Courtney Williams, a former top recruit who's itching to get on the field.

Secondary: More than any other unit, the secondary was dented by offseason and off-field problems. Not only did S Nate Lyles graduate, but corners Chris Cook and Mike Brown are no longer with the school. The corners will be fine. While Ras-I Dowling, Mike Parker and Trey Womack are bubbling over with upside potential, Vic Hall brings starting experience and a veteran's presence to the position. Byron Glaspy has proven himself in the ACC, but after him, the Cavaliers have more question marks than sure things at safety. Moving Hall to free safety is an option the coaching staff could explore.

Special teams: After being a strength and so vital to last year's 9-4 mark, the special teams unit is in danger of becoming a liability that could cost the Cavs a game or two. Replacing clutch K Chris Gould will be redshirt freshman Chris Hinkebein, who has a long leg and enough pop to also be used as the kickoff specialist. Gould and All-ACC second teamer Ryan Weigrand deftly shared the punting job. Filling in will be senior John Thornton, a walk-on who has yet to see any time. At 6-foot-4 and 212 pounds, he has good size, but lack of experience makes him a big question mark.