Duke should be a Cutcliffe above this year
By luring David Cutcliffe away from Tennessee, the Blue Devils have their best Xs and Os guy since Steve Spurrier was in Durham, and a coach who brings instant credibility to a floundering program that hasn't been close to competitive for years.
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Cutcliffe's task is obviously overwhelming; he inherits a team that won two games against FBS teams in four years and hasn't beaten an ACC opponent since 2004. However, the hiring of a new staff is a dramatic step in the right direction, and 19 starters are back from a year ago. It's not nearly enough to start dreaming about the postseason, but it's a start, and it's not like Cutcliffe isn't used to handling impossible situations.
No, he didn't turn Ole Miss into a power, but helped by Eli Manning, he did make the program relevant again before being unceremoniously fired after one down year. His first step will make the offense more consistent, something he was able to do for the Rebels and Vols, and that, along with all the returning experience, could be just enough to come up with a bit of a breakthrough.
The one Blue Devil win came by hanging on late in a 20-14 win over Northwestern, but outside of that, the team has gone 0-for-10 over the last three seasons in games decided by a touchdown or less. The 2006 team should've beaten Miami and a more confident, veteran team would've. Last year's games against Wake Forest, Navy and North Carolina could've easily have gone Duke's way with one big stop and a bit more from the offense late. If experience and Cutcliffe combine the right way, the Blue Devils should win a few of those close ones and be far more respectable.
Although no one in Durham will pay attention unless Duke wins a few more games, there is a new attitude permeating throughout the program, which often happens when an unsuccessful regime is swept out of town. Fundamentally, the Blue Devils will make a quantum leap from last season, even if they lack the depth and talent to make it show up in the standings. Duke will take its first rebuilding steps under Cutcliffe in 2008, remaining in the ACC cellar but will stun at least one league opponent later in the fall.
What to watch for on offense: Cutcliffe plans to install a faster paced, no-huddle offense, while still adapting to the personnel he inherits. The ultimate goal will be to achieve balance and to keep defenses guessing. Cutcliffe's first quarterback is a good one, third-year starter Thaddeus Lewis, an all-league contender if he keeps learning. If Duke is going to start scoring more touchdowns than in recent years, it's imperative that the line gives Lewis an extra tick or two to find top offensive weapon Eron Riley and an improving collection of young wideouts.
What to watch for on defense: Although Duke's recent woes on defense will likely continue, there is reason for optimism thanks to a front seven that's loaded with more playmakers than usual. DT Vince Oghobaase is the signature player, but he has company, namely from frenetic LBs Michael Tauiliili and Vincent Rey, who'll go anywhere to make a play. The weakest link is located in the secondary, where the Blue Devils are short on defensive backs that can go stride-for-stride with quality receivers. It'll help in a big way if the ends Wesley Oglesby and Ayanga Okpokowuruk can generate more heat on quarterbacks this season.
The team will be far better if ... the offensive line does a much better job of pass protecting and run blocking. In QB Thaddeus Lewis, RB Re'Quan Boyette and WR Eron Riley, Duke has the building blocks of an improved offense, but you're not going to know it if the front wall doesn't do its part. Tackles Fred Roland and Cameron Goldberg should be fine, putting the pressure on new center Bryan Morgan and guards Rob Schirmann and Jarrod Holt to pull their weight.
The schedule: For anyone else, the first half of the season wouldn't be that bad with home games against James Madison, Northwestern and Navy, conference home dates with Virginia and Miami, a road trip to Vanderbilt and two weeks off before November. But there's a price to pay with a stretch of four road games in five weeks, starting with the date against the Commodores and continuing with trips to Wake Forest, Clemson and Virginia Tech wrapped around the N.C. State game. The Blue Devils will play seven straight weeks without a break to close out the season.
Best offensive player: Senior WR Eron Riley. The single most dangerous player on the Blue Devil roster, Riley has averaged over 20 yards a catch in each of the last three seasons despite playing in a feeble attack. Fundamentally sound and very fast at 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, increased stability under center means he'll be even more lethal this fall.
Best defensive player: Junior DT Vince Oghobaase. Since coming to Duke as one of the most heralded recruits in school history, Oghobaase has not disappointed. Even the added nuisance of double teams couldn't keep him from ringing up 49 tackles, 12 tackles for loss and four sacks as a sophomore. This best is yet to come for No. 3, a sure-fire NFL Draft pick when he decides to come out.
Key players to a successful season: The defensive backfield. While it's not obvious from last year's final numbers, there is talent on the front seven and two or three players capable of copping all-league honors. The key on defense is a porous secondary that's too soft in coverage, especially on third down. If the pass defense can somehow start making plays and batting down balls, the Blue Devil D will finally have a chance to escape the ACC cellar.
The season will be a success if ... at least one of Duke's three wins comes against an ACC opponent. It's been almost four years and high time that the Blue Devils finally win a conference game. After coming so painfully close on four occasions last year, the presence of Cutcliffe and so many veteran players should give the program the boost it needs to finally get over the wall.
Offense
As good as David Cutcliffe is as an offensive teacher, he's never been surrounded by so much uncertainty on this side of the ball. The Blue Devils were last in the ACC in scoring and total offense a year ago, averaging less than 18 points a game. Lewis and Riley are nice starting points for the new pro-style offense, but more support is needed from a running attack that managed just 64 yards a game. The key, as always, will be up front with an offensive line that allowed 45 sacks and never opened enough holes for underrated Re'Quan Boyette. Tackles Fred Roland and Cameron Goldberg have potential, but Duke needs three or four more blockers like them to have a fighter's chance of moving the chains with greater frequency.
Quarterbacks: Although Cutcliffe declared the competition open when he arrived, Lewis did nothing in the spring to hurt his chances of being the starter for a third straight year. Coming off a breakthrough season that saw him go 199-of-360 for 2,430 yards, 21 touchdowns and 10 picks, he'll be even sharper with Cutcliffe and quarterbacks coach Kurt Roper monitoring his every move. After making a quantum leap as a sophomore, all signs point to Lewis taking another big step in his development. Junior Zack Asack is the undisputed No. 2 on the depth chart, an experienced quarterback who started six games as a freshman and made another half-dozen cameos a year ago.
Running Backs: After averaging an ACC-low 64 yards a game on the ground, Cutcliffe is determined to make sure that Duke runs the ball better in 2008. How much better depends on how well Boyette handles an expanded role and how much help he gets from a sketchy offensive line. That Boyette has led the Blue Devils in rushing the last two years is somewhat misleading. He gained just 820 yards over that time in a Duke running game that's consistently ranked among the nation's worst. Boyette and Clifford Harris have six letters between them and have taken on more of a leadership role within the Blue Devil offense since the end of last year. However, there was just one run of more than 20 yards in 2007, a disturbing number for a ground game that's sorely lacking in big plays.
Receivers: In Riley, Duke has a go-to receiver that opponents must pay attention to at all times. A Second Team All-ACC performer, he caught 40 passes for 830 yards and nine touchdowns, averaging more than 20 yards a reception for the third year in-a-row. From top to bottom, the receivers average about 6-foot-3 and 200 pounds, giving them a distinct size advantage against most defensive backfields. Talented sophomores Sheldon Bell, Austin Kelly and Jeremy Ringfield have used their offseason to get better. Potentially far better.
Offensive Line: While there's enough first-line talent and experience for Duke to move forward, the unit has a ton to prove after yielding more sacks than all but one ACC team and blocking for the nation's 117th-ranked ground game. The offensive line will be led by seniors Fred Roland and Cameron Goldberg, a pair of veteran blockers capable of more than they've shown over the past two seasons. If those two are prepared to deliver career years and Lewis makes quicker decisions, Duke's number of sacks allowed should start to decline. While the line is a relatively nimble group, it's had a habit in recent years of getting dominated at the point of attack. The Blue Devils have yielded 88 sacks over the last two seasons and have been utterly incapable of springing the team's backs. Even with modest strides, the program is going to house one of the most inept blocking units in the ACC.
Defense
While there's little empirical data from last year to back it up, the Blue Devils could be feisty on defense. Ten starters return, giving coordinators Mike MacIntyre and Marion Hobby the building blocks needed to construct a foundation. The strength will be a front seven that features linemen Vince Oghobaase and Ayanga Okpokowuruk, and LBs Vincent Rey and Michael Tauiliili, last year's top two tacklers, respectively. Oghobaase, in particular, might be a household name if he wasn't playing in Durham. While the run defense should be statistically better, the pass defense needs to make strides after yielding 21 touchdown passes and finishing last in the ACC in pass efficiency defense.
Defensive Line: Duke is bringing back four players that started games a year ago, none more important than junior DT Vince Oghobaase. Not your typical Blue Devil, he's a 6-foot-6, 310-pound future NFL player who's going to get even tougher to block in the second half of his college career. Now that Patrick Bailey is out of eligibility, Duke needs the ends to start creating more pressure, something that happened infrequently a year ago. Bailey aside, the outside rushers produced just six sacks in 12 games last season. Overall, this group of defensive linemen is as deep and talented as the Blue Devils have had in a long time. If they can put it all together, meaning Oghobaase gets more help, both the run defense and pass defense will begin showing long overdue signs of improvement.
Linebackers: Last year's top two tacklers, senior Michael Tauiliili and junior Vincent Rey are back to patrol the middle of the Blue Devil defense. Tauiliili is a 5-foot-11, 235-pound tackling machine with the keen instincts and quickness to constantly be near the ball. Between the three regulars, the Blue Devils feature two seniors and a junior, all of whom have extensive starting experience. Even the two primary backups, Charles Robinson and Adam Banks, got a taste of the starting lineup last season. The stocky builds of Tauiliili and Rey are pluses on running downs, but at barely 6-foot, both become vulnerable when matched up in pass defense with taller receivers and tight ends.
Secondary: While the front seven features potential all-league candidates, the secondary is short on talent, which could explain why Duke pulled up the rear in pass efficiency defense a year ago. Trying to reverse that trend at cornerback will be junior Leon Wright and senior Jabari Marshall, a couple of returning starters. The safeties should be solid. In Catron Gainey, Glenn Williams and Adrian Aye-Darko, Duke has three starters for two positions, a luxury for a program that's usually not flush with talent and experience on the second team. The numbers from last season paint a sobering picture. Opposing quarterbacks completed more than 64 percent of their passes and averaged over 12 yards a completion, the kind of numbers that result in long drives and plenty of conversions on third down.
Special Teams: No unit is in worse shape than the special teams, a comedy of errors and a perennial model of instability. The biggest concern is the kicking game, which saw three players combine to go 3-of-11 on field goal attempts a year ago. Senior Joe Surgan is the leader coming out of spring, but a career marked by inconsistency means his edge could evaporate quickly. Sophomore Kevin Jones is back at punter, with Nick Maggio looking over his shoulder. Despite getting plenty of practice, Jones averaged only 38 yards a punt, which ranked him next to last in the ACC.
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