NC State will face uphill battle

by Rich Cirminiello

For more previews, predictions and prognostications, go to CollegeFootballNews.com.


Updated: July 10, 2008, 8:06 PM EST 2 comments

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CollegeFootballNews.com breaks down NC State as part of its season previews of the ACC.

With a rocky first season now in the rearview mirror, head coach Tom O'Brien is ready to enter the next phase of his rebuilding plan at NC State. While the talent gap with the rest of the league persists, a lack of familiarity with the coach and his expectations does not.

O'Brien spent much of his first season assessing the personnel he inherited, breaking the players out of bad habits, and putting his stamp of discipline on the program. Despite being saddled with a dearth of top-end athletes across the board, the coach nearly guided his rag-tag bunch into the postseason following a 1-5 start. A four-game winning streak wound up being not quite enough to land a bonus game, but it did provide some momentum for a wayward program that had lost 12 of its previous 13 games.

To be a player in the ACC, NC State knows it needs to elevate the overall level of skill and talent, particularly under center. It's going to take time, meaning fans should be patient with O'Brien's blueprint for success at the school. Remember, Boston College was in shambles when he arrived there. When he left, it was a model of stability and success, especially in the postseason.

Even though patience might be preached, it might not be necessary. Few coaches do more with less than O'Brien, and he has quickly transformed the culture and the discipline of the program. While past Pack teams could come up with a monster win here and there and then choke away the gimme, O'Brien should have his team going the other way, beating everyone it should while hoping to steal a game or two against the bigger boys.

With O'Brien's style of coaching, and considering all the other good programs in the conference, the program might not get the Mario Williams-type of prospects on a regular basis like it did under Chuck Amato, but that's not a big deal. O'Brien will keep getting his guys and he'll keep winning with them.

What to look for on offense: How quickly rookie Mike Glennon can get up to speed. He's only a freshman, but he's also the eventual savior for an offense that's been pining for a big-time quarterback since Philip Rivers left the program. Does he take over in 2009, or can he actually overcome a lack of experience to surpass four middling veterans? While it's unlikely Tom O'Brien will give him the ball for the opener at South Carolina, don't be shocked if the Glennon era begins at some point early on.

What to look for on defense: The front four. To make progress on defense, NC State needs to keep as many plays as possible from reaching a suspect back seven. Fortunately, the defensive line has enough quality to help out its brethren at linebacker and in the secondary. On the outside, Willie Young has emerged as one of the ACC's fiercest pass rushers. On the inside, Alan-Michael Cash is a disruptive run defender who gets penetration. Defensive end Markus Kuhn and tackle Antoine Holmes are solid supporters, giving the Wolfpack a defensive line capable of generating a push and limiting the time quarterbacks have to throw.

This team will be much better if... it avoids injuries. A year ago, NC State was a weekly MASH unit, stifling O'Brien's ability to develop any continuity or chemistry within the two-deep. At most positions, the Wolfpack simply don't have enough depth to endure a repeat of 2007, needing to stay healthy in order to use last season as a stepping stone.

The Schedule: It's tough early and not that bad late. Going to South Carolina and Clemson in the first two weeks is hardly a way to boost the confidence of a still-rebuilding team, and non-conference home games against East Carolina and South Florida will be interesting. But the season will be made in a three-week midseason stretch hosting Boston College and Florida State wrapped around an off-week. A second-half stretch of three road games in four would seem tough, but the games are against Maryland, Duke and North Carolina, along with a week off to rest up.

Best Offensive Player: Junior RB Jamelle Eugene. At the beginning of last season, Eugene was a third-stringer, a spare part in a loaded Wolfpack backfield. By the end of last season, he was the program's best offensive weapon, leading the team in rushing and finishing second in receptions. He topped 100 yards vs. Florida State, Virginia and North Carolina, which is no small task considering the lack of support he got up front.

Best Defensive Player: Junior DE Willie Young. Everyone knew the physical talent was there, but for Young, the light went on last year. A physically gifted speed rusher with an explosive first step, he racked up 48 tackles, 16 tackles for loss, six sacks, and 24 quarterback hurries. If he continues to work on and off the field, he'll get a spot on the All-ACC team.

Key player to a successful season: Senior QB Daniel Evans, or whoever gets the ball from O'Brien. With Jamelle Eugene, Andre Brown, and Toney Baker back in the fold, the running game should be so much better than last year. Give them competent play behind center, however, and they'll be fantastic. The Pack needs balance and fewer mistakes at quarterback to begin making strides on offense.

The season will be a success if... the Pack reach .500. There are no delusions of grandeur as NC State attempts to create momentum under O'Brien and his staff. A bowl game would be fantastic, but not the only measure of success for the program. If the Pack can improve on last year while being more competitive against the ACC's better schools, it'll qualify as something to build on for 2009.

Key game: Sept. 20 vs. East Carolina. If the Wolfpack have any hopes of copping a bowl bid, it can ill-afford a repeat of last season's 1-5 start. With tough road games at South Carolina and Clemson in September, the visit from the rival Pirates is a game the Pack have to win. If they can't, the season could start circling the drain. In the second half, they must hold serve in the games they're supposed to win.

OFFENSE

WR Donald Bowens has shown talent, but who will throw the ball to him? (Streeter Lecka / Getty Images)

O'Brien desperately wants to establish a power running game, especially with NC State's ongoing uncertainty at quarterback. Although he'll be loaded at running back with Jamelle Eugene, Andre Brown, and Toney Baker, it won't matter unless the Wolfpack get dramatically better inside. The line got routinely blown off the ball in 2007, making Eugene's three 100-yard days all the more impressive. Out of Daniel Evans, Russell Wilson, Harrison Beck and Justin Burke, the Pack need a reliable quarterback after combining for a league-high 23 interceptions. O'Brien's offenses aren't built around the passing game, but everyone benefits if the quarterbacks play with more consistency. Don't expect an epiphany from the passers, but it'll help getting back TE Anthony Hill from a season-ending knee injury.

Quarterbacks: When picking this year's starter, O'Brien will have lots of choices. It's unlikely, however, that any will be good right away. Evans has a slight edge based on the fact he's started 17 games over the past two seasons, but he's far from a sure thing. In those two years, he's thrown 23 interceptions to just 17 touchdowns, and he missed all of spring recovering from shoulder surgery. Unless one of the freshmen — Russell Wilson or Mike Glennon — can step in and immediately start making plays, NC State could be staring at a repeat of last season's problems

Running Backs: Without any debate, the backfield is NC State's deepest unit heading into the season. Assuming everyone is healthy for the opener at South Carolina, NC State boasts three runners with the talent and experience to carry the load. O'Brien's biggest challenges might be making sure Jamelle Eugene, Andre Brown and Toney Baker get enough touches to remain in game shape. However, as last season showed, injuries are an issue. Baker missed the spring resting his surgically repaired knee and Brown still needs to prove he can hold up for the entire season. If NC State is anywhere near last year's 110th-place finish on the ground, it means the line was horrible or the injury bug made a return visit in 2008.

Receivers: The team's most dangerous receiver, 6-foot-3, 206-pound junior Donald Bowens, returns determined to improve on last year's 41 catches for 598 yards and three touchdowns. Physically imposing, he has the size to out-muscle defenders on jump balls and the speed to stretch a secondary. After Bowens, the Pack have a lot of big bodies, but not one has caught more than a dozen passes in a season. If the team's go-to receiver is to avoid getting doubled, he'll need a couple of his friends to emerge into steady producers. The return of TE Anthony Hill, however, coupled with the emergence of Bowens give the Pack a solid one-two punch in the passing game.

Offensive Line: In an attempt to address holes on the interior of the line, State is shifting two former defensive tackles, senior John Bedics and junior Ted Larsen, to left guard and center. The Wolfpack are not lacking in big, powerful bodies, averaging almost 310 pounds across the two-deep. If everyone stays healthy, there's no reason this unit shouldn't be winning more battles at the line of scrimmage. However, plain and simple, the Pack linemen are slow, one of the main reasons they allowed too many sacks last fall. Size matters up front, but it can also become a liability when opposing ends are able to zip around the edge and get free shots on the quarterback. O'Brien's staff traditionally does a fine job of coaching up linemen, but they're not magicians. The Wolfpack are short on talent here, and if the recurring theme of injuries and inconsistency continues, a repeat of last year's dismal results will be unavoidable.

DEFENSE

DE Willie Young will continue to stalk ACC offenses. (Streeter Lecka / Getty Images)

There are plenty of holes to plug on a defense that ranked No. 11 in the ACC and ran out of gas in November. The casualties are everywhere, hindering the staff's quest to become more physical in run defense and generate more takeaways. While the Pack will be challenged by the departures of five key members of the front seven, they get back DE Willie Young and DT Alan-Michael Cash, a pair of playmakers with all-conference skills. Graduation was particularly harsh on the linebackers, taking away all three starters and three of the team's top five tacklers. S DaJuan Morgan left early for the NFL, creating an opportunity for redshirt freshmen Justin Byers and Jimmaul Simmons.

Defensive Line: The line will be built around juniors Alan-Michael Cash and Willie Young, an inside-outside tandem with All-ACC potential. From those two on the first team to Audi Augustin and Keith Willis on the second unit, the linemen use their hands well and have the quick feet to zoom past lumbering linemen. With penetration coming from the ends and the tackles, doubling one player will be like picking your poison. The run defense has to be better after allowing 186 yards a game on the ground. Things don't figure to get a whole lot better after losing Demario Pressley, a fifth-round selection of the New Orleans Saints. Even so, this unit should wind up being the strength of the defense

Linebackers: All three starters need to be replaced, forcing the Pack to go into rebuilding mode, particularly with the outside spots. Former safety Robbie Leonard is a feel-good story, but at just over 200 pounds, it won't feel so good when he gets matched up with a tight end or a pulling guard. Nate Irving and Dwayne Maddox have a chance to be very good, but both are still young and largely surrounded by mediocrity.

Secondary: Very quietly, the Pack did a nice job against the pass last year, finishing 28th nationally with little star power. To maintain that trend, someone needs to step up and fill the void left by S DaJuan Morgan's early departure. Senior J.C. Neal is the new veteran among the safeties, a versatile 5-11, 195-pounder who has literally cross-trained everywhere in the secondary. Javon Walker, DeAndre Morgan, Justin Byers and Jimmaul Simmons are all underclassmen vying for playing time early in their careers, and all good enough to be productive members of the defensive backfield for the next three or four years.

Special Teams: After delivering mixed results a year ago, the Wolfpack special teams are looking for more consistency and a couple of capable return men this fall. It'll be tougher than expected to replace PK Steven Hauschka, who nailed 16-of-18 field goal attempts in his final season. Filling his shoes will be sophomore Josh Czajkowski, last year's backup and one of the nation's top prep kickers of 2006. Senior Bradley Pierson has the edge at punter, but he'll need to elevate his game to hold off the challenge of junior Jeff Ruiz. Despite getting so-so support from the punter, NC State led the country in punt coverage defense, allowing a ridiculous 3.1 yards a return.

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