Lions have chance to be Big Ten upsetter
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Wisconsin has more than represented the league well, Michigan made up for the early problems last year by beating Florida in the Capital One Bowl, and Penn State has won three bowl games in three years, including a BCS game. The Nittany Lions even beat (gasp) a real live SEC team, Tennessee, in the 2007 Outback Bowl.
No, don't blame Penn State for the league getting bashed; it has more than held up its end of the bargain overall. And while most of the national attention has focused on when Joe Paterno is going to retire, and how (at least when Nittany Lion players aren't in the police blotter) the real story should be how the great program has avoided slipping into the abyss.
After going 7-16 in 2003 and 2004, the run appeared to be over. Paterno had lost it, the program and the ideals had become antiquated and outdated, and it was time for a new head coach to come in and bring things up to 21st-century speed. Penn State appeared to be headed down the same path of mediocrity that superpowers like Nebraska, Florida State and Miami are currently on, and while FSU is trying to transition to the future, the Huskers and Canes are trying to revisit the past to bring back their glory. Penn State is trying to do a little of both.
Oh sure, like always, Penn State has players who have been groomed for a few years and appear ready to finally break through as upperclassmen, like QB Daryll Clark and LB Josh Hull, but Paterno and the program had started to play young players earlier over the past few years than it did in the past, and the move has not only paid off in recruiting, but on the field, too, as there's a ton of experience on both sides of the ball and plenty of talent to go around.
In the past, with an offensive line that might be the best in the Big Ten, and with backs like Evan Royster, Stephfon Green and Brent Carter to hand off to, Penn State would be focused on the ground game first and foremost, but this year the offense is going to spread it out a bit and use the veteran receivers even more. In other words, Paterno is able to change on some things, and it has kept the program fresher than it appears.
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| It may be up to Daryll Clark to lead Penn St.'s offense. ( / Getty Images) |
So while past dinosaur programs like Florida State, Miami, Nebraska and now Michigan are spending this year trying to find themselves and their identity, Penn State, the biggest stick-in-the-mud program of all, has a legitimate shot at a Big Ten title and maybe more. The Nittany Lions might not be as strong as they were back in the 70s and 80s, but they're at a consistent Top 20 level.
And for that, the Big Ten is eternally grateful.
What to watch for on offense: Shorter, quicker passes. It's not like Anthony Morelli was a mad bomber, and it's not like the receiving corps is full of plowhorses, but the passing game is going change things up a little bit and go to more quick throws to get it out of the hands of the quarterback and into the arms of one of the veteran receivers where he can do something with it. Now the question is who the quarterback will be. Daryll Clark has the mobility, but Pat Devlin has the NFL potential. Both have live arms, and both can do whatever the offense needs when it comes to short-range accuracy.
What to watch for on defense: The defensive line is going to once again be dominant without the beef inside. The loss of star tackles Chris Baker and Phil Taylor, who were suspended, will really sting, and it was a shock considering Baker has been able to work out with the team and each is expected back at some point, if not for the start of the season. Even though they're out, it's no big deal with Abe Koroma and Ollie Odrick more than good enough to clog things up in the middle, while Maurice Evans could be the best defensive end in America.
The team will be far better if: The kickoff coverage team isn't awful. While the linebacking corps could be better and the quarterback situation needs to be settled and there will be big problems if injuries hit the O-line, for the most part, everything is in place to make a possible run for the Big Ten title. Even the special teams are terrific, and they could be the best in the Big Ten, as long as someone can cover a kick. The difference between a championship and a trip to central Florida in January could be something as simple as a blown play on a kickoff, and Penn State, 116th in the nation last year in kickoff coverage, allowing 26.36 yards per try and two touchdowns, has to be far better.
The Schedule: There's no reason not to be 4-0 facing Coastal Carolina, Oregon State, at Syracuse and Temple. And then comes the roughest five-game stretch anyone in the Big Ten has to face dealing with Illinois in the Big Ten home opener before going on the road three times in four weeks against Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio State. The home "oasis" in the midst of the road trips? Michigan. At least there's a week off before finishing up at Iowa for the fourth Big Ten road trip in five games and at home against Indiana and Michigan State. If the slate didn't seem cruel enough, who does Penn State miss in conference play? Minnesota and Northwestern.
Best Offensive Player: Sophomore OG Stefen Wisniewski. If you're looking for the likely star of the offense, it's probably WR Derrick Williams, as underwhelming as he has been, because of his speed and his ability as a runner as well as the leading receiver last year. RB Evan Royster and QB Daryll Clark could get the nod, and C A.Q. Shipley is the leader and the sure-thing all-star, but to project a little bit, Wisniewkski is the big-time talent who takes an already great line and makes it special. All five starters were returning off last year's line, but Wisnieswski knocked off Mike Lucian from the right guard spot. He's big-time.
Best Defensive Player: Junior DE Maurice Evans. The 6-foot-2, 264-pound junior is an elite pass rusher who sparks an interesting debate among the NFL scouts over the next year. Is he best as an outside linebacker in a 3-4, or is he an undersized speed-rusher in a 4-3? Whatever it is, he's a superstar playmaker in the backfield who also holds up well against the run.
Key player to a successful season: Junior LB Josh Hull. The offense will be fine with either Clark or Devlin under center, but the real issue could be, strangely enough for Penn State, the linebacking corps. After boasting one of the great trios in recent history with Paul Posluszny, Dan Connor and Sean Lee, and then last year with the dynamic duo of Connor and Lee, it's rebuilding time. Lee will be back from his knee injury next year, so in the meantime, Hull, or rising star Chris Colasanti, must turn into a star in the middle, where Lee was going to take over for Connor. The line will take care of most of the work, but for Penn State to be great, it might need Hull, a former walk-on, to be a star.
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| If the offense doesn't click, JoePa could be sour. ( / Getty Images) |
The season will be a success if: Penn State wins 11 games for the second time in four years and gets to a BCS game. The road trips to Wisconsin and Ohio State might be too much to keep the Nittany Lions from an outright Big Ten title, but they should be far better than the other ten teams on the schedule. Even if they split with the Badgers and Buckeyes and drop one they shouldn't against someone like Iowa or Purdue, there's no reason not to be in the BCS at 10-2 going into the bowl.
Offense
Everything is in place to be really, really good. The line could be the best in a conference full of terrific front fives and the receiving trio of Derrick Williams, Jordan Norwood and Deon Butler might not be the be-all-end-all, but it's among the nation's most experienced corps and will be solid, and the running back tandem of Evan Royster and speed-demon Stephfon Green will likely be an upgrade. It all comes down to the quarterback play. Anthony Morelli tried hard, but he wasn't efficient and he didn't do enough to make the offense special, so his loss isn't all that big a deal. Daryll Clark is a mobile veteran with plenty of upside, while Pat Devlin is the one-time superstar recruit who's the quarterback of the future and possibly the present. The coaching staff will work a bit more with a spread attack to get the ball in the hands of the receivers on shorter, quicker patterns, but the quarterback have the ability to air it out when needed.
Quarterbacks: Considering there's no real experience among the starting options, the situation isn't all that bad. The key will be who can consistently hit the short to midrange passes and not turn the ball over. Clark will likely end up being the No. 1 guy, but Devlin won't be far behind and will almost certainly see meaningful playing time throughout the year. Clark can throw the ball a ton, and Devlin has an even better arm. The offense is changing up a bit and these two aren't going to be airing it out all that often, but the ability is there to go deep at any time.
Running backs: There are plenty of excellent options to keep things moving. If one goes down, or isn't producing, there's another good back ready to take over. Throw in WR Derrick Williams in the mix from time to time, and there's speed, power and talent throughout the backfield. It's not like Royster can't move, he's plenty fast, but Green is the one who'll get the crowd moving. He's not the disciplined, dependable runner Royster is, but he'll be the highlight-reel runner. Penn State has a type of back that seems to work well for its style of play. Royster, Carter and Brandon Beachum are all thick, 210ish-pound runners with the quickness to get through the line and the toughness to pound away for hard yards. Even Green, for a speed back, has good size.
Receivers: By now, everyone knows what Williams, Butler and Norwood can do. They're all solid, they can all step up and be the main man when needed, and they'll all produce. They're not going to blow anyone away, but they're good, reliable receivers who'll be a major plus for the new starting quarterback. They have been around forever, and they've done a good job of growing into their roles. However, they didn't make a big jump up in overall production last year and they didn't make Anthony Morelli better, and vice versa. Now they'll need to be bigger stars. The tight end situation is excellent with or without Andrew Quarless, the star who was suspended this offseason.
Offensive line: All five starters return to the line with one big twist. The 6-foot-3, 288-pound sophomore Stefen Wisniewski, the nephew of former Penn State star and longtime NFL starter, Steve, saw time as a true freshman and was fantastic when he got the chance. Now he has pushed Mike Lucian out of a job. A.Q. Shipley and Rich Ornberger will earn All-Big Ten honors, and Dennis Landolt and Gerald Cadogan will get their share of looks for the postseason all-star teams, but Wisniewski is about to become the main man and one of the Big Ten's most dominant guards. The line paved the way for 194 rushing yards per game, and if it's Daryll Clark under center, the offense will crank out well over 200 yards per outing behind this group. Pass protection is hardly a problem, even though the tackles are very good, and not next-level superior. This is a talented, smart, experienced line that'll be the reason the Nittany Lions win a few games. Few defensive lines will be able hold their own for a full 60 minutes against this group. The big task will be preparing for next year by getting several new players prepared to take over at key spots.
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| The Lions have a good one in LB Josh Hull. ( / Getty Images) |
Defense
This will be a good defense overall, but it's not going to be as good as last season. The linebacking corps carried the defense for the last few years, but this season, it's all about pass rushing terror Maurice Evans and the line. The loss of tackles Chris Baker and Phil Taylor, who were suspended this spring and booted off the team, will hurt, but the Nittany Lion defensive line could still be among the best in America. It'll have to be with Dan Connor and Sean Lee gone from the linebacking corps (Lee will be back next year after injuring his knee). The back seven will be fine as long as the line plays like last year, when it led the way to the nation's seventh-best run defense and was second in the country in sacks, but if there's a drop-off in production up front, the secondary could be in big trouble.
Defensive line: Penn State finished sixth in the nation in sacks and seventh in run defense in 2006 and was supposed to be in rebuilding mode last year. Yeah, right. All the line did was lead the way for the nation's seventh-best run defense, again, and was second in the nation in sacks and 10th in tackles for loss. Now the line is even better with Evans a superstar to revolve around, too many good tackles to get on the field at the same time and good potential among the reserve ends. This group will dominate even without Baker and Taylor, but it would've been a brick wall had they been in the middle. Even so, the line can get into the backfield from all four spots with Evans leading the show. There isn't a lightweight in the bunch among the front four, unless Aaron Maybin is in, and then the speed gets cranked up a notch.
Linebackers: Sean Lee would've been everyone's All-American and in a tight battle with Ohio State star James Laurinaitis for Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year honors, and then he tore up his knee. Now he'll be the star next year. He was going to take over Dan Connor's spot in the middle, but now it'll be junior Josh Hull who makes the move from outside in after 18 tackles. It's Penn State, so the linebackers will be good, but there's a massive drop-off in talent from what the corps was at the last few years. Tyrell Sales is a good one and Bani Gbadyu will grow into the job, but Connor will be sorely missed in the middle. You don't get better by losing 283 tackles, 10 sacks and 25.5 tackles for loss that Dan Connor and Lee provided. However, there's hope for the future as the recruiting class is full of star prospects. Michael Zordich and Mike Yancich might be better than anyone on the roster right now.
Secondary: The biggest plus the secondary has going for it is a defensive front that'll be camped out in opposing backfields. The corners won't have to work for too long. This is a good group of defensive backs, but it's not an elite one, and it can be burned deep by a quarterback who gets a little time. Everyone can hit, and there are enough veterans to make this a relative strength, even if this group has the upside to do even more than last year. FS Anthony Scirrotto needs to revert to his 2006 form, and all indications are that he will, while CB Mark Rubin is a promising veteran who should be even better. If Michael Mauti sticks in the defensive backfield and doesn't move to linebacker, he could be the breakout star.
Special Teams: The knock on junior punter Jeremy Boone was that he didn't have a huge, booming leg. Last year he helped lead the Big Ten's best and nation's third-leading punting game by averaging 43 yards per kick with 25 put inside the 20. He even banged out a 70-yarder. A consistent weapon, he should be among the best in the nation. Senior Kevin Kelly didn't kick in the 1986 Fiesta Bowl or the 1983 Sugar Bowl; it just seems that way. A solid producer over the last three years, he has a big leg and he improved overall last season hitting 20 of 26 field goals with two of the misses coming from beyond 50 yards. He's clutch, has great range and is reliable. Corner A.J. Wallace is one of the best kickoff returners in the country, averaging 26.4 yards per try last year, while WR Derrick Williams is an explosive punt returner who averaged 11 yards per attempt.
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