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Bulldogs looking to make more progress in '08

by Pete Fiutak

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Updated: August 14, 2008, 1:39 PM EDT
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Did Mississippi State turn a corner, or was 2007's 8-5 season, complete with a scintillating (zzzzzzzzzzz) 10-3 Liberty Bowl win over UCF the plateau?

Considering the program hadn't had a winning record in six years and hadn't won more than three games in a season since 2000, there's reason for Bulldog fans to get fired up. With a major-league pain-in-the-butt defense and an offense that did just enough to not screw up, MSU was able to win, but it needs far more to get to another level and become a real, live challenger.

The defense is there. Loaded with returning veterans and a few great, underappreciated stars in Derek Pegues and Jamar Chaney, this is a very aggressive, very good defense that will have its occasional issues with the better offenses, but if you have a mediocre offense, you will be shut down.

Oh yeah, the offense. How MSU won eight games and a bowl with the nation's 113th best offense is still a miracle, but there should be some signs of life with a tremendous stable of running backs working behind a veteran line. This won't be Texas Tech when it comes to moving the ball, but the offense won't be a total and complete liability.

The biggest overall question will be how the Bulldogs handle the expectations. This is no longer the SEC West's doormat. This is a good enough team to step up and slug some decent teams in the mouth and come up with an upset or three as they screw up someone's season. But MSU wants to be more than just a spoiler.

If there's going to be a sleeper, and a deep, deep one to come out of the West, this would be the year it happens. Alabama is still at least a year away from hitting its stride under Nick Saban, Ole Miss and Arkansas are retooling with new coaches, LSU is rebuilding and Auburn is coming up with a new offense. MSU has to take advantage, and if the offense is better and the defense improves against the better teams, this could be the big year MSU has been dreaming of for a long, long time.

What to watch for on offense: Is Wesley Carroll going to be any better? Thrown to the wolves as a freshman, he threw for 421 yards and four touchdown in the loss to Arkansas, but he also threw four interceptions and finished with seven picks on the year. Closing out by completing eight of 18 passes for 39 yards with an interception in the win over UCF, which didn't exactly inspire confidence, but he'll need to be a more efficient, more explosive passer if MSU is going to make any real noise.

What to watch for on defense: The linebackers. The line will be strong thanks to a great pair of tackles, Kyle Love and Jessie Bowman, and the linebackers will clean up everything that gets by. Seniors Jamar Chaney and Dominic Douglas combined for 167 stops, while sophomore K.J. Wright is a 6-foot-3, 215-pound speedster on the strongside who might lead the team in tackles. This should be the team's strength, if it's not the running back corps.

The team will be far better if ... it can generate more of a pass rush. Getting into the backfield isn't a problem, the Bulldog D finished first in the SEC in tackles for loss, but it was last in the league in sacks, coming up with just 19. It's not like MSU is facing a murderer's row of passing quarterbacks. In fact, it's possible that Tennessee's Jonathan Crompton will be the best one it faces, but if there could be more pressure on passing downs, the D will be even more fantastic.

The Schedule: There are three killer road dates at Georgia Tech, LSU and Tennessee all before the end of October, but overall the schedule isn't that bad. They get Vanderbilt and Kentucky from the East and a snoozer of a non-conference schedule — outside of the date with the Yellow Jackets — by playing at Louisiana Tech, SE Louisiana and Middle Tennessee. To improve on last season's breakthrough campaign, there has to be a home win over either Auburn or Arkansas, and there has to be another Egg Bowl win at Ole Miss. An upset at Alabama would certainly help the cause, but after last year's upset win, that could be a beartrap.

Best Offensive Player: Junior RB Anthony Dixon. To say Dixon was the Bulldog offense is an understatement. All the 6-foot-1, 240-pounder did was run for 1,066 yards and 14 touchdowns and catch two touchdown passes, despite being the total focus of every defensive gameplan.

Best Defensive Player: Senior FS Derek Pegues. Is he an NFL safety? The 5-foot-10, 196-pounder has the speed and quickness, he's a top punt returner, and he's a fantastic tackler and ball-hawker, but he's not a national name. He should be. He's the star of the tremendous defense and the quarterback of the secondary. Job one of every quarterback will be to know where No. 3 is.

Key player to a successful season: Sophomore QB Wesley Carroll. All he needs to be is efficient. He won't have to throw for 300 yards per game, and he won't have to carry the offense, but if he keeps the chains moving, doesn't turn the ball over and comes up with a deep pass here and there, he'll get the job done.

The season will be a success if ... MSU wins 10 games. Yes, the first 10-win season since 1999 is possible with a not-that-bad schedule and a veteran team good enough to be just a wee bit better. There are only two almost-certain losses, at LSU and at Tennessee, but everything else is in play. A nine-win regular season and a bowl win would be a special season.

Key game: Sept. 13 vs. Auburn. In one of the shocking moments of the early 2007 SEC season, MSU beat Auburn 19-14 in Jordan-Hare. If the Bulldogs can pull off another win over the Tigers in the SEC opener, it'll set the tone for the rest of the year, and it could be a must-win with road trips to Georgia Tech and LSU to follow.

Offense

The offense was along for the ride last year as the defense set the tone game after game, but that should change a little bit. After averaging fewer than 300 yards per game, this group has to do a better job of moving the chains. The running game should be far stronger with a jelled, veteran line paving the way for a strong trio of running backs, led by Anthony Dixon, but the passing attack has to start doing more after finishing 113th in the nation. The receiving corps is mediocre, lacking a true No. 1 target, and QB Wesley Carroll isn't the type of passer who'll make everyone around him better.

Quarterbacks: This would've been a strong situation, but Michael Henig was forced to retire with a chronic hip problem, but this might be addition by subtraction. That's not a knock on Henig, but he would've been the starter, giving the team a good veteran to count on, while the team might turn out to be better by living through the development of Carroll, Tyson Lee and Chris Relf. There won't be big yards coming from Carroll, but he has to be more efficient to take the heat off the ground game or else Lee will take over. Relf has an arm, and Riddell was a productive bomber at the JUCO level, but no SEC team will fear this group pushing the ball deep. Even if it means a bad pick here and there, Carroll has to try taking some big shots down the field to open things up.

RB Anthony Dixon will be a crucial component for Mississippi State's offense in 2008. (Doug Pensinger / Getty Images)

Running Backs: This could be the team's strength, and it could be a good enough backfield to carry the team through the tight games. Dixon is a proven back who'll be the focus of every opposing team's gameplan, while Christian Ducre can be a 5-to-7 carry back who can provide a consistent No. 2 option. Robert Elliott is the wild card. If he's half as good as expected, then there are plenty of options and more talent to work with to keep Dixon fresh. It's not Dixon and Ducre's fault, but they didn't crank out nearly enough big runs. With no help from the passing game to loosen things up, and an average season from the O line, they didn't have much room to rumble.

Receivers: This could more of a problem than it appears. Is there anyone who'll inspire more than a yawn from anyone in the SEC? There's experience and measurables, the group looks the part with big targets and excellent speed, but there aren't enough SEC-caliber receiving threats. Jamayel Smith isn't a true No. 1 target and will be erased by any top corner, and it's asking a lot for Aubrey Bell, Brandon McRae and O'Neal Wilder to make a big leap and become a 35-catch player. This group has to start making more big plays and has to be relatively consistent. The running game will be the focus, so all the MSU receivers have to do is exploit the single coverage and keep the chains moving.

Offensive Line: It's taken several years, but the MSU line has gone from being pieced together, with several players looking for a place to fit in, to a strong unit that should actually be a strength. As long as injuries don't strike right away and promising young prospects like Quentin Saulsberry, Addison Lawrence and D.J. Looney get time to figure out what they're doing, this group should only get better. Guards Anthony Strauder and Michael Gates are athletic, versatile blockers who now know what they're doing. They're crusty veterans who won't make too many mistakes.

Defense

There might not be many all-stars or much in the way of a steady pass rush, but the defense will be among the best in the SEC again with eight starters returning, led by the safety combination of Derek Pegues and Keith Fitzhugh. The linebacking corps gets three of the top four tacklers back with Jamar Chaney and Dominic Douglas a strong 1-2 defensive punch, but there's little depth behind them and the third spot is a question mark. The tackles are excellent and the ends can stop the run and make plays in the backfield, but there has to be more sacks after finishing last in the SEC with just 19.

Defensive Line: The defensive front might lose Titus Brown, but it could end up being better with fantastic tackles and good potential on the ends. Getting to the passer will be job one, but the line, and the defense in general, was terrific at coming up with tackles for loss, leading the SEC averaging over seven a game. All that's missing is a fearsome end, and the line will be one of the most productive in the league. The tackles should be great. Kyle Love, Jessie Bowman, Quinton Wesley and Rodney Prince can all play, forming a strong rotation that should be excellent against the run. Love and Bowman are anchors. Making the situation even stronger will be Templeton Hardy, the team's top recruit.

Linebackers: There might not be any superstars here, but there are three strong tacklers in Jamar Chaney, Dominic Douglas and Jamon Hughes who'll make this a rock-solid corps that'll be among the most productive in the SEC. Even with several young players the size of defensive backs, there's not much production against the pass, and there isn't a pass rushing threat in the group. Even so, there's a nice mix of established veterans and good young prospects. There's almost no depth whatsoever. K.J. Wright is still a prospect on the weakside, and there's nothing outside of Hughes to count on if a slew of injuries strike. The real problem could be the size with only two players, Chaney and Hughes, over 230 pounds.

Safety Keith Fitzhugh was a big part of turning around Mississippi State's secondary in 2007, helping the Bulldogs finish seventh in the nation in pass defense. (Joe Murphy / Getty Images)

Secondary: The secondary struggled in 2006 to find the right combination and came out roaring in 2007, finishing seventh in the nation in pass defense and 20th in pass efficiency defense. Led by Derek Pegues, this is a ball-hawking group that produced despite a lack of steady pass rush up front, and it should be among the most productive in the nation again if Anthony Johnson is the same corner he was before breaking his leg. The corners can certainly cover, but the difference between the secondary being good and being special is its tackling ability. Johnson and Marcus Washington aren't afraid to hit anyone, and Jasper O'Quinn is strong in the open field.

Special Teams: Senior Blake McAdams is back for his fourth season as the starting punter, and now he has to regain his freshman form when he averaged 41.9 yards per kick. His average has been, well, average, dipping below 40 yards on 214 kicks, but the net numbers are misleading since he's been fantastic at putting the ball inside the 20, doing it 47 times in three years. He has a big leg, shown off with a 73-yard blast against Auburn. Senior Adam Carlson took over two years ago when injuries struck and was mediocre, hitting six of 12 field goals. Then he was a weapon as a junior, nailing 10 of 13 attempts, including a 48-yarder against Ole Miss. Two of his misses came early on in a win over Tulane, and his other miss came in the win over Gardner-Webb. After that, he hit all six attempts and punted a little bit. He doesn't have a huge leg, but he can be counted on from 40 yards and in. Along with being the team's top defensive player, Derek Pegues is an elite kick returner, averaging 22.1 yards per kickoff return for his career, and 11.7 yards per punt return with two touchdowns. Redshirt freshman Wade Bonner will handle most of the kickoff returns, but Pegues will still be the punt return man.

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