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Time for 'Bama to roll up some wins

by Pete Fiutak

For more previews, predictions and prognostications, go to CollegeFootballNews.com.

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Updated: August 18, 2008, 7:17 PM EDT
Comment
Everything is pointed toward Alabama becoming a championship superpower some time in the very near future.

Considering what head coach Nick Saban did with LSU, and with some tremendous recruiting classes to build the foundation, it's all there for the Tide to soon be in the yearly discussion of possible SEC title contenders, which would put it in the yearly discussion for national title contenders.

But in the meantime, it would be nice if there were more wins, and it would be nice if Saban showed why he's getting paid like he is.

Saban has only come up with one season with fewer than three losses since leaving Michigan State in 1999, and while he certainly appears to have everything moving in the right direction, everyone can't get caught up in what might happen down the road. Alabama needs to win now or else there will be more pressure next year than there normally would be. The much-maligned Mike Shula came up with a 10-win season in 2005, and this year's team is far better.

It'll be tempting to look to the future after a 2008 recruiting class with mega-talents like WR Julio Jones, OT Tyler Love, LB Jerrell Harris and QB Star Jackson, but many of the top prepsters will be needed now. Considering next year the offense will likely be breaking in a new quarterback, star linemen Andre Smith (most likely) and Antoine Caldwell will be off to the NFL, along with safety Rashad Johnson, and many of the star recruits will still be a year away from shining, this is the year to come up with results or else it might be 2010 before the program really hits its stride.

And even then, it's not like 'Bama is assured of anything. One monster Tide recruiting class isn't going to force Florida, Georgia, LSU, Tennessee and Auburn to fold up shop. If anything, those teams are reloading for the next two years as well. In the SEC, blink, and you missed your chance.

More than anything else, for this year, there needs to be some consistency. Jim McElwain is the team's third offensive coordinator in as many years, the defense has major turnover in the back eight, and there can't be gaffes like there were last year against UL Monroe. The coaching staff is in place, the talent has been upgraded and the expectations are starting to build.

On the plus side, this team is better than last season when all six of its losses were by seven points or fewer. 'Bama also won four games by six points or fewer, including a battle against Houston. Veteran teams win the closer games, and this one, while talented, has gotten younger.

The bar is set higher in the SEC. Urban Meyer won a national title early on at Florida. Les Miles needed just a few years to win a championship at LSU. Saban doesn't have the horses that those two had, at least he doesn't have the veterans like those two enjoyed, but he does have a good enough team be in the thick of the SEC West title hunt. It's time to start paying off.

What to watch for on offense: The tight ends. Until the freshmen get their feet wet, the safety-valve tight ends will be the life-savers. Travis McCall might be more of a blocker than a receiver, but he'll catch more than the six passes he took home last year. Nick Walker is an NFL-caliber tight end who should be featured as a go-to target to keep the chains moving.

What to watch for on defense: The linebacking corps. The spotlight will be on as it's Rolondo McClain and bunch of other guys. From Ezekial Knight's heart condition to Prince Hall's off-the-field issues to Jimmy Johns' big off-the-field issues, the linebacking corps has been gutted. True freshmen Jerrell Harris, Courtney Upshaw and Don'ta Hightower could play big early roles if Alex Watkins can't get the job done.

The team will be far better if ... the passing game is more efficient. QB John Parker Wilson has had three offensive coordinators to deal with, and it has shown as he hasn't been able to find any sort of consistent groove in the passing game. He had good receivers last season, but it just didn't come together. Now the idea is to up the completion percentage, get the pace moving, and get the ball to the playmakers. Wilson can do that.

The Schedule: Non-conference yawners against Tulane, Arkansas State and Western Kentucky, and home dates against Kentucky, Ole Miss and Mississippi State will ensure a winning season and a bowl game. That's where the fun stops. Clemson (played in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta), at Arkansas, at Georgia, at Tennessee, and at LSU are all losable, and while the Auburn game is at home, that hasn't meant much of anything lately. On the plus side, the nasty games are mixed in with the relative layups, so there shouldn't be too much of a losing streak, if any. Of course, it'll be hard to go on a big run of wins.

Best Offensive Player: Junior OT Andre Smith. While he could stand to be better in pass protection, the 6-foot-4, 340-pound senior is the type of blocker NFL franchises build around for a decade. He joins center Antoine Caldwell to form the building blocks of what should be a fantastic front five.

Best Defensive Player: Senior FS Rashad Johnson. The only question is where he plays. A breakout star at free safety, leading the team with 94 tackles and six interceptions, he could move to strong safety if needed. While he's not huge at 6-0 and 187 pounds, he packs a punch and has a great nose for the ball.

Key player to a successful season: Senior DE Bobby Greenwood. Shuffled between a tackle spot and the end, Greenwood needs to finally bust out and become a regular in opposing backfields. Wallace Gilberry and his 80 tackles, 10 sacks and 27 tackles for loss needs to be replaced, and Greenwood has to show he's finally up to the task of being a No. 1-type of pass rusher and playmaker up front.

The season will be a success if ... the Tide wins eight games and beats Auburn. After winning seven games and losing to the Tigers for the sixth time in a row, Saban has to show that things are taking another step forward before what should be a terrific 2009. This is a stepping-stone season, but that doesn't mean there can't be plenty of wins.

Key game: Nov. 29 vs. Auburn. After losing six in a row, and with the big game at home following an off-week, Alabama has to pull this win off. The fan base needs it, the program needs it, and while Saban, of course, isn't on any sort of a hot seat, he needs it or else the pressure will be ramped up 25-fold going into 2009. Winning this would take a big monkey off the program's back.

Offense

Another year, another offensive coordinator as Jim McElwain comes over from Fresno State looking to kickstart a mediocre and inconsistent attack. There will be more running, more use of the tight ends, and quicker, shorter passes from veteran QB John Parker Wilson. Nick Walker and Travis McCall are good tight ends to keep things moving. The backfield of Terry Grant, Glen Coffee and Roy Upchurch is good, but they have to stay healthy. The line, led by LT Andre Smith and C Antoine Caldwell, will be the strength, while the receiving corps needs uber-recruit Julio Jones to be a star right away.

Quarterbacks: The quarterback situation is fine, but it would be nice if Wilson made it special. He'll have to make quicker reads, hit more short-to-intermediate routes, and be a game manager (with all the cliche brings with it). Greg McElroy and Nick Fanuzzi could use some meaningful time in the rotation, but first, Wilson has get comfortable in the new offense, and that'll take some time. With a third offensive coordinator to deal with in three years, Wilson has to use everything he has learned to be a calming, consistent playmaker. He's the one who'll have to make everything go.

Running Backs: The backs should get far more work in the new system, and they have to do something more with the responsibility. There's talent in the backfield with Terry Grant a dangerous playmaker on the verge of breaking out, but the big key will be to keep everyone fresh. Between the three backs there should be a steady rotation to help avoid breakdowns. At least that's the goal. McElwain did a wonderful job for the Fresno State ground game as the Bulldogs finished 14th in the nation in rushing. While FSU's Ryan Mathews, Lonyae Miller and Clifton Smith were all talented and productive under McElwain, Bama's group should be better if everyone can stay healthy.

Receivers: The passing game needs playmakers, and the coaching staff went out and got them. Star recruit Julio Jones is a big, dangerous target who will be better from Day 1 than anyone on the roster, while Mike McCoy and Nikita Stover are serviceable. The new stars should be the tight ends, with Nick Walker and Travis McCall being used far more. The rating is assuming it'll take 10 minutes for Jones to figure out what he's doing. McElwain did a great job at Fresno State at using the tight ends, making converted quarterback Bear Pascoe a good NFL prospect. McCall and Walker might be better than Pascoe.

Offensive Line: With talents like Andre Smith and Antoine Caldwell to start with, the star of the future in Love, and with good veterans in Mike Johnson and Marlon Davis, the line should be better. It's a big enough group to do more for the ground game, but with so many good SEC pass rushers to deal with, the key will be how well this group can handle the top ends. With all due respect to Arkansas C Jonathan Luigs, Smith and Caldwell could be the best blockers in the SEC. They are two NFL talents who'd be starting in the big league right now. However, the front five really was average in pass protection last year allowing 25 sacks.

Defense

The defense was solid last season and was all set to take another step forward this year until the linebacking corps took a hit. Ezekial Knight was forced to quit football thanks to a heart condition, Jimmy Johns was booted for allegedly selling cocaine, and Prince Hall was suspended for violating team rules. Fortunately, Rolondo McClain is back while the recruiting class should bring in instant help from Jerrell Harris and Courtney Upshaw. The line in the 3-4 is fine, but nothing special without Wallace Gilberry. A pass rusher has to emerge. FS Rashad Johnson leads a fast secondary that'll get a boost from freshmen Mark Barron and Alonzo Lawrence.

Defensive Line: Last year the line had to move to a 3-4 out of need, but this year it might have to be a 4-3 on talent and potential. If nothing else, there will be a good rotation of mid-sized run stuffers, and with some big bulk waiting in the wings to clog things up on the inside. A pass rusher needs to emerge and there must be more pressure generated from all three spots, but overall this will be a solid, but unspectacular line. The run defense will once again revolve around the nose where 6-4, 283-pound junior Lorenzo Washington might be more like an end, but has been a rock-solid tackle.

Linebackers: This would've been a killer corps had Prince Hall, Ezekial Knight and Jimmy Johns been part of the mix from the start, and while Hall will be back by October, it's going to take a big year from Jerrell Harris, along with a few other fellow true freshmen, to make the corps a strength. This isn't going to be a big-time problem area, players like Brandon Fanney and Chavis Williams have nice potential, but it'll definitely be a question mark.

Secondary: The numbers will be better than the secondary. Even with some issues at strong safety and with the corners merely above average, there will be plenty of picks and plenty of big stops. S Rashad Johnson is a great one and there's plenty of speed to go around, but the key will be run support. How much will the DBs have to help out the linebackers? The overall numbers looked nice, and the secondary did a terrific job of picking off passes, but it helped to play a slew of passing-challenged teams. LSU threw a ton and Colorado went nuts, but there were several games against weak passing games. This crew will have to prove it from Day 1 against Clemson, but on the plus side, there aren't any Texas Techs on the slate.

Special Teams: Junior Leigh Tiffin stepped in and stepped up, nailing a whopping 25 of 34 field goal attempts and showing excellent range. Now he'll have to be consistent after missing four kicks inside 40 yards. However, with a big leg, he nailed two from 50-plus and was a solid 10 of 15 from beyond 40. Junior punter P.J. Fitzgerald has to be better. He has been great in placements, putting 39 kicks inside the 20 over the past two years, but he hasn't aired it out and followed up a 38.2-yard-per-kick average with a 38.7-yard average. On the plus side, the punt returns were kept to a minimum. Junior CB Javier Arenas is one of the nation's best all-around return men averaging 15.4 yards per punt return and 24.3 yards per kickoff return. He's a quick weapon who's a threat for a touchdown every time he has the ball in his hands.

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