Gators could re-claim crown if things break right
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Even though a four-loss season isn't currently acceptable in Gainesville, considering the bar has been set so high, it was generally acknowledged that 2007 was supposed to be a year of transition. Nine starters needed to be replaced on defense, a running back needed to be found, and wasn't, and in the SEC, an elite team that's not fully loaded has to take a step back and wait its turn again.
Now the question is whether or not all the growing pains of last season will turn into production this year. Tim Tebow might have been the first sophomore to win the Heisman, but his epic year came partly because there wasn't a running back getting the job done. The pass defense was the worst in the SEC with true freshmen getting their feet wet, there wasn't enough of a pass rush, even with Derrick Harvey at one end, and the defense went bye-bye in key situations against the better teams. While there was a great early win over Tennessee, the second best victory came against, um, uh, Kentucky?!
There's pressure on everyone in the SEC, but Meyer has to prove that his terrific recruiting classes and dizzying collection of athletes can mesh into an SEC championship- caliber team. Tebow is a great leader to start with, there's a ton of talent in the backfield to finally get a real running game going from the backs, the receiving corps will be phenomenal, and the defense will be just fine with a little more work.
However, considering all the pieces were supposed to be put in place last year, the depth at safety is extremely thin, two true freshmen will be counted on to play big at defensive tackle, and there are only two upperclassmen on the O-line, and both of them, Jim Tartt and Phil Trautwein, while talented, are banged up.
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| Urban Meyer wasn't so heroic last season. (Doug Benc / Getty Images) |
The overall talent level is there to win a second national title in three years, but everything has to fall into place around the mega-stars. In reality, the program is still probably one more year away from being a championship juggernaut, but the same can be said for Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, and even Alabama. In the SEC, you have to take advantage of every opening, and Florida has to make it happen this year. It could be its turn again.
What to watch for on offense: Less Tebow, but a better Tebow. The idea will be to keep the star fresh for later in the season and for the fourth quarters. Even Superman wears down, and Tebow's production suffered after getting beaten on repeatedly. There will be a rotation of quarterbacks, but that's more to get the young guys some work than it is to keep Tebow fresh. In a perfect world, his carries are cut in half after running it 210 times last year, while he's still used to barrel it in around the goal line.
What to watch for on defense: Carlos Dunlap. Derrick Harvey might have been considered a star, but the eighth pick in the draft was way too inconsistent as he disappeared over parts of the second half of the season; he didn't do nearly as much as his press clippings suggested. Even so, Florida needs Dunlap to generate the 8.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss that Harvey did, and if this offseason was any indication, he will. At 6-6 and 290 pounds with good speed, he could quickly become a superstar.
The team will be far better if ... it could stop someone from throwing the ball. To be fair, several teams had to abandon the running game and bombed away in an attempt to keep up the pace, but it's not like the Gators played Texas Tech and Hawaii every week. Everyone fattened up on the Gator secondary, and now it's time for true sophomores Joe Haden and Major Wright to play like seasoned veterans.
The Schedule: There are just enough problems to keep the Gators from going unbeaten, but this is still a slate good enough to win a national title with. Getting Ole Miss from the West is offset by the home date against LSU, while the non-conference schedule is easier than it appears on paper. Playing Miami and at Florida State might be nasty again in a few years, but not now for a superior Florida team. Of course, in SEC play it's all about the East, and if the Gators can get by the early showdown at Tennessee it all opens up with South Carolina and Kentucky going to The Swamp.
Best Offensive Player: Junior QB Tim Tebow. Have you really taken a look at what Tebow did last year? He's 6-3, 232 pounds, averaged 4.3 yards per carry while running for 23 touchdowns, led the team in rushing with 895 yards, was one of the nation's most efficient passers completing 67 percent of his throws for 3,286 yards and 32 touchdowns with six interceptions, and yet there were still many who blew off the stats like they weren't that big a deal. It's not like he did all this in the Sun Belt; he was the one player everyone had to stop in SEC play week in and week out, and no one did it. If what he did was so easy, and if most of his touchdowns came on short runs, then why hasn't anyone else ever run and thrown for 20 scores in the same season?
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| The Gators have one of the country's best LBs. (Joe Murphy / Getty Images) |
Best Defensive Player: Junior LB Brandon Spikes. Ohio State's James Laurinaitis might be the fashionable household name who'll get all the recognition as the nation's best middle linebacker, or it might be USC's Rey Maualuga who garners all the attention, but if Spikes chooses to skip his senior season, he could be the first linebacker taken in the 2009 NFL Draft.
Key player to a successful season: Freshmen DTs Omar Hunter and Matt Patchan. The two might be top-shelf, elite of the elite recruits, but it's still asking for the world for two true freshmen to step in and solve the problems at defensive tackle. Hunter is an ideal nose tackle who might have the starting job from the moment he sets foot on campus this fall, while the undersized Patchan has to first get healthy after suffering a gunshot wound to his shoulder. If these two aren't tremendous, a dream season might go bye-bye by mid-October.
The season will be a success if ... Florida plays for the national title. Tebow, Harvin, and Spikes are just a few of the phenomenal talents on team that's ridiculously good in some places, like receiver, tight end, and linebacker, and strangely mediocre in others, like defensive tackle and safety. Meyer and the Gators have overcome more. It's national championship or bust for a team this good.
Key game: Nov. 1 vs. Georgia. As the last two years have shown, an SEC team can suffer a loss, or even two, and still play for the national championship. However, winning the conference title is a must, and the loser of the Cocktail-Don't-Call-It-A-Cocktail-Party will likely be out of the hunt. If Florida wins at Tennessee early on, this, along with the SEC title game, will be the one big hurdle to getting to Miami on January 8th considering LSU and South Carolina have to come to The Swamp.
OFFENSE
There are a lot of health concerns, but if and when everyone is 100 percent, this will be one college football's most devastating attacks. It all starts with Heisman winner Tim Tebow, who likely won't put up the stats he cranked out last year but could be a better passer as the coaching staff looks to keep its star fresh by limiting his workload. There will be more of a quarterback rotation and far more help from a four-headed monster at running back led by Kestahn Moore and USC transfer Emmanuel Moody to go along with speedsters Chris Rainey and Brandon James. Percy Harvin is one of the nation's most devastating playmakers, while the rest of the receiving corps should be unstoppable. The key will be a line with two very good, but very banged up seniors, Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt, leading a talented group of underclassmen.
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| Tim Tebow is bidding for another Heisman. (Marc Serota / Getty Images) |
Quarterbacks: Everything possible will be done to make sure Tebow doesn't carry the ball 210 times again. While he'll still be the fearless runner he always was, the running backs should take away more of the workload and Cam Newton and John Brantley will be in the rotation more often to get some meaningful work in. Yes, there is a drop-off from a Heisman winner to two unproven backups, but the reserves can play. There's a reason they're playing for Florida.
Running Backs: What can the running backs do to help out Tebow? Last year Tebow and Harvin carried it 293 times; that number needs to dip to about 150, and for that to happen the running backs need to play a bigger role. Moody wasn't great in spring, but he has the skills to potentially be the workhorse back to revolve around. Rainey and James are dangerous weapons who could allow Harvin to be more of a receiver and less of a runner, while Moore needs to solve his fumbling problems and become more dependable. Tailback-by-committee is a good thing here. Rainey will give defenses fits, while Moore, James and Moody will all need to be gameplanned for.
Receivers: From the speed and quickness of Percy Harvin and Deonte Thompson, to the potential of Carl Moore and Riley Cooper, to the steady production of Louis Murphy, to the talented Aaron Hernandez, this group has it all. If everyone can stay healthy, which isn't a given after already losing top tight end Cornelius Ingram, this will be a devastating corps of playmakers. There are too many weapons to cover.
Offensive Line: The line was tremendous in pass protection throughout last year, made better by Tebow's mobility, and it did a better overall job than it got credit for in the running game. Now the young players who got their feet wet have to become stars. The Pounceys, Maurkice and Mike, have to play up to their prep hype, and most importantly, the senior combination of Phil Trautwein and Jim Tartt have to be on the field. On the projected two deep are two seniors and eight underclassmen. Trautwein and Tartt have to stay healthy all year long, which isn't a given, to provide the necessary leadership to a talented young group.
DEFENSE
Florida weathered the storm of last year when it needed to replace nine starters. The pass defense was abysmal, and while the run defense was tenth in the nation and first in the SEC, that's partly because everyone was stretching out the passing game legs on the green secondary. Now the defensive backfield should be far better as corners Wondy Pierre-Louis and Joe Haden should be much better, and FS Major Wright could grow into an all-star. The problem is the secondary depth; there isn't much, especially at safety. That, along with the potential for disaster at tackle with two true freshmen, Omar Hunter and Matt Patchan, needing to be stars, could be the difference between a good season and a potential national championship. Brandon Spikes leads a tremendous linebacking corps and the ends, especially rising star Carlos Dunlap, will be phenomenal.
Defensive Line: The tackles are going to be a major concern. Sound familiar? That was the same issue going into last year, and Florida finished tenth in the nation and first in the SEC in run defense. Somehow, someway, everything will be fine, and if the true freshmen are the real deal, then the line could actually be one of the team's strengths. Alright, so that's pushing it, but the production should be there with a little bit of time. The ends will be terrific; Carlos Dunlap and Jermaine Cunningham will grow into a special tandem.
Linebackers: The young, talented group came together faster than anyone could've hoped for, and now it should be tremendous. Brandon Spikes is an All-American to work around, while A.J. Jones and Dustin Doe are underappreciated factors on the outside. The depth is there to provide even more of a rotation, and the talent is back to level it was at when Brandon Siler and Earl Everett where dominating.
Secondary: While it's convenient to blame the young secondary for the reason why Florida didn't play for the SEC title and lost four games, the reality was that the pass defense was really only a big problem in the loss to Michigan. It wasn't exactly tight against Georgia, and Auburn's Brandon Cox threw for 227 yards, but the Gators won most of the games when they were bombed on. However, the big concern is that things didn't improve as the season went on. All the new players should've gotten better, and they didn't. Now the hope is for the strides made this spring by Joe Haden and Major Wright to translate into more production. The depth is a huge issue; it wasn't developed last year.
Special Teams: Running back Brandon James is one of the nation's best all-around return men averaging 28 yards per kickoff return and 18.1 yards per punt return. Teams will try to stay away from him at all costs. The kicking game goes from serviceable to interesting with true freshman Caleb Sturgis taking over for Joey Ijjas, who hit ten of 15 shots but didn't have much in the way of range. That's not a problem for the big-legged Sturgis, but he'll have to prove he can handle the pressure early on. Senior Jonathan Phillips has been around for a while and could step in if Sturgis is a disaster. The Gators had the SEC's best punting game thanks to Chas Henry, a true sophomore who only average 39.3 yards per boot, but put 14 kicks inside the 20, force 19 fair catches, and almost never allowed a return. Only five of his 37 kicks were returned.





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