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Can Appalachian State stun the world ... again?
When Louisiana State opens its national-title defense Saturday, the most memorable team of 2007 will be on the field. I'm just not sure it's LSU.
If you're a college football fan (and not an LSU fan), answer this:
In five years, what will you remember more? LSU's second national title of the decade? Or Appalachian State's stunning win over Michigan?
College football is our most exciting sport. Each season produces at least a half dozen games that are more thrilling than anything the NFL offers. But precisely because there are so many great games, it is difficult for one to rise above the rest. The memory of USC's upset loss to Stanford last October has already started to fade. Even Notre Dame's 3-9 season will eventually blend in with some of the other recent Irish failures.
But Appalachian State 34, No. 5 Michigan 32 will live forever.
It is the Chaminade 77, No. 1 Virginia 72 of its day. It is the score that made no sense. It was the rare event that reminds you why you watch sports. The winningest program in college football history can lose to a team that isn't even qualified to play in the BCS.
Sports Illustrated put the game on its cover with the billing "All-time Upset." Freakonomics co-author Stephen Dubner, an Appalachian State grad, wrote an essay about it for The New York Times. And of course, ESPN devoted round-the-clock coverage to it.
It was, people said, the greatest upset in college football history, and there was only one problem with that:
It wasn't.
Not even close.
As a story, you can't top Appalachian State over Michigan. No I-AA team had ever beaten a ranked I-A team, and Michigan was not just ranked — it was ranked fifth!
Officially, the NCAA had just changed its division designations to Football Bowl Subdivision (I-A) and Football Championship Subdivision (I-AA). But everybody knew what this meant. Michigan had lost to the Washington Generals. For years, anybody talking trash to a Wolverine fan will just have to say the words "Appalachian State" and watch the sting come back again.
As I stood on a Michigan Stadium sideline and watched the final minutes unfold, the game seemed both surreal and very real all at once. It was hard then (and now) to get my mind around the idea of this little school nobody had ever heard of coming into the Big House and beating a Michigan team with national title hopes. But watching the game, it just didn't feel like a huge upset.
It felt like the more talented team played very poorly, and the less talented team was pretty damn good.
Several people at Michigan told me, before and after that game, that Lloyd Carr had been worried about the Mountaineers. Now, coaches always worry, and Carr worried more than most. But this was different. Carr knew Appalachian State was better than probably half the teams in the Division formerly known as I-A. He knew the first game of the season was always a risk.
Michigan had a chance to schedule other, more beatable foes for its opener. But the school inexplicably took a game with more risk than people realized — and almost no reward.
In the final Sagarin Ratings for 2007, Appalachian State finished 44th in the country — regardless of division. Yes, the win over Michigan contributed to that lofty ranking. But Northern Iowa, another I-AA team, was 62nd, ahead of the Big Ten's Indiana, Iowa and Minnesota.
In 2006 (without the benefit of a win over Michigan), Appalachian State finished 53rd in those same rankings.
For comparison's sake: Last season, Stanford finished 70th in the Sagarin Ratings. That is the same Stanford team that shocked USC in October. There is a reason that offshore bookmakers set a much bigger line on Stanford-USC than on Appalachian State-Michigan.
Now, the Sagarin ratings aren't everything — I'm just using them as one measurement. But the fact is that the shock value of Appalachian State's win over Michigan was based on the commonly held perception that there is a big gap between FBS/I-A and FCS/I-AA. And there isn't. In 1997, Marshall jumped from I-AA to I-A and immediately became the premier team in the Mid-American Conference.
But college football is a perception game, and Michigan can never fight perception on this one. We have all seen teams lose to Stanford. Whoever heard of losing to Appalachian State?
Everybody has heard of it now.
Including LSU.
The Tigers had better watch out. You never know when the sun will shine on the same dog's butt again.
Member Comments
Good article and some food for thought....<br /><br />After USC choking to Stanford (#2 in total NCAA National Championship) last year, and Bama losing to Louisiana-Monroe, I would LOVE to see Appy St. upset LSU! I don't think it will happen, however after last years 2007 CFB season, anything is possible!
USCWalkon19808/29/2008 9:31:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Being an Appalachian State Alumni (95) and a App State season ticket holder I need to thrown in my 2 cents! I made 9 games last year from Central KY. I also was on the sideline for the KY vs. LSU game. Any team can beat anybody any day! 2 upsets last year KY vs. LSU and App State vs. Mich. That is only 2 I know there was several more. <br />Will App State beat LSU probably not.... but who knows???? App State will be as good as last year!! Watch out!!! We are preseason #1(97 out or 101 votes) We are returning over half of our starters. We know how to play in the big games. Yeah Death Valley is a tough place to play, but so was a 110,000 at the big house. We came to LSU several years ago and was in the game until the 4th quarter and the better team won. LSU is supposed to win!!!!! If LSU wins everyone will say "see these guys are a fluke" Well maybe so... maybe we do not play in the SEC or the Big Ten or even in the Div BCS but we did something only a couple of teams can claim... we won 3 back to back to back championships!!!! In a win or go home tournament! Not in a division that who has the most votes from a computer plays each other in a over hyped game! Do not get me wrong I love college football and I watched LSU play live and on TV last year and they where good! They won the NC!!! But do not take App State to lightly! They might get beat but they will give you a game and they will make it exciting!!!!!! Just remember Amanti Edwards but up 300 yards rushing in one game and it was about 20 degrees and snow on the ground on national TV! We know how to play on national TV! All I ask is if App State wins please come back and give us our due respect!! Oh and one other thing, please call us Appalachian State, App State or ASU. WE HATE HATE HATE APPY STATE!!! That would be like calling LSU the TIGGERS!
appst8fan8/28/2008 17:00:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
I hope we don't take our foot off the gas and beat appy state by 40. run , run run!! if it is possible to beat them by 50 I think we should do it
CURDOG778/28/2008 11:21:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
hey jjsame73, ever heard of Kevin Mawae? Yea Titans starting center, veteran pro-bowler, was on Jim Rome yesterday? Yea former LSU player . How bout J Russel number one draft pick in 07 to go along with 3 other first rounders. Yea good call man we are actually in the top 10 universities for current NFL players on rosters. History is always great, we know how Alabama does it, but I think the point was we are talking bout the present like this decade, that kind of stuff. Congrats you have a hell of a history, where you been the last 10 years?
2bcscrystals8/28/2008 10:11:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
jjsame73, the tigers were bad in the 90's but you have got to admit that loss to appy state was historic and will never ever go away. that michigan loss was the most unacceptable loss a d1 powerhouse could ever have. well maybe a loss to a high school team would be worse.
CURDOG778/28/2008 10:02:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Temple over VTech in 1998 was as big as Stanford-USC. Stanford at least won a few other games. Temple was 0-6 include a loss at home to William and Mary, and after beating the 5-0 (finished 9-3) Hokies, they lost all their other games except for beating Pittsburgh (who only beat 1 D1A team that year) by a point.
Statalyzer8/28/2008 7:40:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Most memorable bowl game is the 1992 beating of USC by the Fresno Bulldogs in the Freedom Bowl, 27-7! Anyone want to relive that? Michigan paid over 250K not to play Hawaii last year for an opener and lost against Appalachian State. Hawaii went on with an unblemished regular season. Cross the Warriors and the Kahuna is going to get you.
Mysize8/28/2008 6:08:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
lsu cry babay<br />you are correct you are not MI<br />you probably were not even born when MI had thier last losing season<br />or when MI wasn't in a bowl game( any bowl)<br />hmm lsu 99' 3-8 thats great<br />where are allthe great players from lus in the NFL?? <br />how many lsu players won the MVP in the NFL, how many ??<br />so yes you are right lsu is not MI, never will be <br />clown
jjsame738/27/2008 18:14:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Nah, as big a shock as it would be, I just don't see it happening, but mostly because LSU knows App State potential. Carr might've seen it, but unfortunately his team didn't. Anyone who has followed Mich can confirm that. <br /><br />A good running QB was always a big weakness for Mich years prior to that game...coupled with the fact they, like most big schools, take non-conf games for granted. They got bit and bit hard for it!<br /><br />I think most big school teams will rethink that mindset after last seasons upsets, or it least they should because you can bet the smaller schools have. <br />LSU and App St looms larger to me because of the Div 1-A v Div 1-AA champion match-up. An LSU loss will say alot about the precived difference of the divisions. <br /><br />It would be a greater upset than the Mich loss in sport writers eyes!
ANUBIS8/27/2008 14:33:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
1 Tiger fan : Maybe in your day LSU has not been a bottom dweler, But throughout it's history, LSU has had many(Most) very poor to ave years. LSU is a great program now, But that sure hasn't been it's overall history.
DMANLV18/27/2008 14:21:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Doctor : What quality programs has the SEC had for decades???? Alabama long term is the King of the conf. Miss has had it's day at times in the past. That's it as far as history goes. LSU's success is very recent. LSU had primarily loosing decades prior to this decade. Hell, At on point, Miss use to play LSU @ LSU every year because they were cupcakes and and easy win for Miss(LSU had a larger stadium-More revenue for the teams). Florida was nobody until the late 80's and became an elite program in the 90's. What has So. Carolina, Vanderbilt, or Kentucky ever done? Nothing. Arkansas hasn't been a national power sinse they've been in the SEC. Miss St., Again, Nothing.<br />Tenn, another team prior to the 90's wasn't considered an elite program. Georgia, This was the first year they have ever been a Pre-Season #1. What does that tell you? They certainly haven't been world beaters in their history. This conf in truth has been very week for decades up till the 90's and now this decade can call it self the best overall conf currently. But again, the success of the SEC is very recent in terms of history. For every great team the SEC has had, You can count a half or dozen or so very bad teams when you look at it from an historical perspective.
DMANLV18/27/2008 14:16:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Is it possible? Anything's possible-maybe the sun will go supernova tomorrow, too. Is it likely? No. Foxsports is to blame for posting this crap-just more evidence of sports writers stupidity. This moron apparently has a hard-on for Appalacian State and is having wet dreams of a repeat. Better grab your vaseline and tissue dude-I seriously doubt you'll be getting off on that game. Wait, maybe you can yank to this: BLOW-OUT!
8/27/2008 12:49:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
1 T1gerfan1:<br />1999 LSU went 3-8. Last place in the SEC West<br /><br />1998 LSU went 4-7<br />1994 4-7<br />1993 5-6<br />1992 2-9<br />1991 5-6<br />1990 5-6<br /><br />The 90s pretty much wasn't LSU's decade. Six Losing Seasons. But yes LSU has improved vastly after that.
8/27/2008 12:35:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Well not sure where he was but I was at that game and both teams played well. We just played better that day. I am supposed to be at LSU this year if the hurricane dosen't stop us. I don't have any smack comments. LSU is a great team. I want us to play well and then come home and work on another National Championship. You see Michigan was great and I am glad i was there, but there is no ring for the Michigan game. The ring comes with a national championship. I hope we both play well and then head on down the road and both get national championships again. <br /><br />The folks at Michigan treated us very well and I expect that LSU will also just as they did three years ago. We ar lucky to be able to play fine universities such as these.<br /><br />I hope all you teams have a great year.
bcoach8/27/2008 12:31:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
We are not taking them lightly as did Michigan, but make no mistake about it we will Dominate!
LSUPOWER8/27/2008 12:11:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Look at this guy Michael Rosenberg, he was probably the water boy in high school...The football players probalby stuffed him in the locker...WHAT DOES THIS GUY KNOW ABOUT FOOTBALL????
metryboy8/27/2008 11:54:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Michael Rosen berg...Quit toking on the crack pipe...I am an LSU fan, but this clown is comparing LSU to Michigan...There we go again, no respect for the SEC...The toughest conference in all of college football...When are these sports writers going to write about something...Instead of talking about something that will never happen..<br /><br />Rosenberg....WRITE SOMETHING MEANINGFUL!!!!!!
metryboy8/27/2008 11:52:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
No apology necessary. Im just a proud LSU fan stickin up for his team, lol
1_T1GERFAN_18/27/2008 11:30:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
I will agree with you on that one everythingfootball....but not on the bottom dweller statement.
1_T1GERFAN_18/27/2008 11:24:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
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