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Five Thoughts: Stage set for BCS busters

by CFN staff, CollegeFootballNews.com


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Updated: September 30, 2008, 11:07 AM EDT

Utah might have something to say about this, too

After a breathtaking weekend of upsets and shockers, one thing was proven among all else.

You can't be in a non-BCS league and play for the national title.

I know, I know, I'm the one yelling to anyone who'll listen that if everything is equal, this year, the Mountain West champion probably deserves to be given every consideration for the big games ahead of the Pac-10 champion, but there's simply no comparison to the week-in, week-out grind the big-league teams have to go through when the intensity of conference games gets ramped up to 11. That was NOT the same Oregon State team that showed up against Penn State.

If you want an eight-team playoff with the six BCS league champions, the top non-BCS league team, and one at-large spot given to the highest ranked team left on the board, count me in. But if you're telling me that a team like BYU or Utah would be in the national title chase if it were in any of the BCS leagues, I'm just not buying it.

Can BYU play with, or beat, anyone in America? In a one-game shot, absolutely. There's no question that BYU or Utah or Boise State or Fresno State, on the right day, could beat Oklahoma, Alabama or LSU. And of course BYU could beat Ole Miss at home or Oregon State in Corvallis. Could the Cougars go unscathed against this schedule: at Tennessee, Ole Miss, LSU, Kentucky, Georgia (on a neutral site), at Vanderbilt, South Carolina and at Florida State, and then maybe beat Alabama or LSU (in other words, the tough games on Florida's schedule)? No way. And the same goes for any BCS team's schedule. If BYU needed to come up with a few huge plays to get by a miserable Washington team, what would it need to do to get by Michigan State in East Lansing, or Oregon in Eugene, or South Florida in Tampa in the meat and grind of a conference campaign?

It sounds like a simple (and yes, elitist) concept, but it's an important one we'll have to deal with going forward because BYU is currently seventh in the coaches' poll. Already in a slot to earn a spot in a BCS game, if the Cougars keep on winning, because pollsters are loathe to move teams who win down, the climb up the charts will be swift.

Oklahoma and Texas play in two weeks, so one of those two will likely fall below an unbeaten BYU. Missouri plays Texas on Oct. 18, so one of those two would drop. LSU and Alabama play on Nov. 8, and Penn State has to go to Wisconsin and to Ohio State before the end of October. Just by beating Utah State, New Mexico, TCU, UNLV, Colorado State and San Diego State, BYU would be almost certain to be one of just two, at most, unbeaten teams currently ranked in the top seven by mid-November with road games at Air Force and Utah to go. I think that road trip to TCU is a bear trap, but if that's your one game to worry about before Nov. 15, Merry Christmas.

By comparison, over that same stretch before mid-November, Missouri has to play at Nebraska, Oklahoma State, at Texas, Colorado, at Baylor, and Kansas State. LSU, the nation's No. 2 team, has to play at Florida, at South Carolina, Georgia, Tulane, and Alabama. If you really want to get unfair, No. 5 Texas has to play at Colorado, Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State, at Texas Tech, and Baylor, before going to Kansas on Nov. 15.

Could BYU beat each of those teams on those schedules? Sure. Could BYU handle the cumulative effect of all those games in a row? No way. Almost no one can.
— Pete Fiutak

However, don't be surprised ...

Here we go again. Sure, there were plenty of surprises this past weekend, but please tell me you weren't shocked that three of the top four and nine overall ranked teams went down to defeat since last Thursday. If so, where were you last fall? This is where we're at in college football, a time when no one is safe and parity has swept through the country like a tropical storm. Get used to it because it's not changing. Not now, and not in the near future.

We're only five weeks into the season, yet the maximum number of BCS unbeatens we can have is already down to four. That figure is going to dwindle with time, and the likelihood that there are no perfect teams in early December is very strong. The biggest beneficiary? How about BYU, the 410-pound Cougar in the room? Attrition is going to take a bite out of the big boys over the next two months. Oklahoma still must play Texas and Texas Tech. Alabama hosts LSU on Nov. 8. Penn State must go on the road to Wisconsin and Ohio State in October. All the while, BYU, now No. 8 in the AP poll, will climb closer to one of the top two spots, creating a ferocious national debate that'll make the folks in Provo swear.

The Cougars still have a pair of brutal road games at TCU and Utah, but they're good enough to win both, and the overall success of the Mountain West this season is going to help with strength of schedule. In other words, don't be blown away if BYU earns a trip to the title game in Miami. At the end of September, Duke, Vanderbilt, and Northwestern are 12-1 combined. Nothing should surprise you.
— Richard Cirminiello

Oh yeah, Virginia Tech

While it's sure to get lost in a weekend that saw USC, Florida, and Georgia get upset, someone needs to point out that Frank Beamer is quietly doing one of the best coaching jobs of his brilliant career.

Saddled with a staggering dearth of skill position talent, wholesale changes on defense, and an opening-day loss to East Carolina, he and his staff have rallied the Hokies to wins over Georgia Tech, North Carolina, and Nebraska. All of the sudden, the program that was having dirt heaped on it less a month ago is the highest-ranked ACC team and the favorite to repeat as league champion.

Tyrod Taylor has been a big factor in Virginia Tech's turnaround. (Dave Weaver / Associated Press)

Beamer moved swiftly after the first game, changing direction with sophomore QB Tyrod Taylor, who was slated to redshirt in 2008. The decision has been the difference in Tech's turnaround, especially in Saturday's unexpected win in Lincoln. In the face of a roaring sea of red that was looking for a coronation, Taylor helped lead the Hokies to 35 points, their biggest output of the season. With Western Kentucky and a bye week up next, Virginia Tech will have come full circle in time for a rugged four-game stretch that'll define its postseason fate.

Forget about blue-chip recruits and storied histories. College football success has been and always will be about the men on the sidelines and in the coaching booths. Frank Beamer has proven that once again over the past four weeks.
— Richard Cirminiello

Or maybe Ole Miss and Oregon State dominated on the lines

Does anyone need any more evidence to understand why mental toughness is the most important factor in all of college football?

Does anyone need any more explanation, after this weekend, in order to understand why one week's seemingly discouraging performance against Little Sisters of the Poor Valley State Poly Tech has very little, if anything, to do with the following week's hugely hyped contest against the AP No. 5 team?

Does anyone require further proof, after this weekend, as to why one week's awesome performance against Big Boy University can and will be followed up by a clunker against a lowly loser or lucky lurker on the college football scene?

Does anyone, after this weekend, now see why the terms "hangover game," "look-ahead game," "letdown," "ambush," "trap," "sandwich," and others are rightly entrenched in this beautifully baffling sport's lexicon?

If you're only looking at pure talent and pure technique and pure physical ability, you're only seeing half of this sport, maybe even less. To ignore fluctuations in performance, which are caused by the fragility of the human organism — especially among the ranks of hyperactive, hormonally volatile 19- and 20-year-old males playing a sport that requires them to act a little crazy — is to, flatly and factually, ignore the 139-year history of college football.

If you've ever knocked the centrality of psychology — in college football or, for that matter, any other sport — you don't have to knock it anymore.
— Matthew Zemek

And Gary Barnett is nowhere to be found

Lost in all the wackiness and excitement of the last weekend was one of the best stories no one is noticing ... Northwestern.

No, the unbeaten Wildcats aren't going to be in the hunt for the national championship and will likely be out of the Big Ten title chase soon, but that shouldn't undermine the turnaround done by one of college football's youngest head coaches just a few years removed from Randy Walker's tragic death.

Pat Fitzgerald has shown that he's learned quite a bit about coaching now that he's in his third year on the job. Now, he's getting the most out of his team.

When Northwestern has been competitive in recent years, they've been good-to-great on offense and forgotten about defense. This year's team plays defense and provides just enough offense to get the job done, holding Iowa scoreless in the second half to come back from a 17-3 deficit late in the second quarter for the 22-17 win. The Wildcat defense recovered four fumbles and also had an interception. Safety Brad Phillips also forced a Shonn Greene fumble that was recovered by defensive tackle Corbin Bryant in the fourth quarter. The hit knocked Greene out of the game. Wildcat middle linebacker Michael Arrington said the Hawkeyes were a "much different team" after that.

The Wildcats are 5-0 for the first time since 1962. They may not stay that way after Michigan State comes calling on Oct. 11, but they won't go faintly into the night. They are a hard-hitting and punishing team that doesn't care what anyone thinks. They just want to hit, and they're just finding ways to win.
— Steve Silverman

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"Just by beating Utah State, New Mexico, TCU, UNLV, Colorado State and San Diego State".. Yeah that MWC is weak. Wait a minute, is that the same New Mexico that has beaten Arizona 2 years straight? The same TCU that handled Stanford? The same UNLV that beat ASU on the road when they were ranked 15? The same SDSU that almost (and should have) knocked off Notre Dame in South Bend? You convenientely omit that, if the Cougars were undefeated at the end of the season, they would have beaten Utah at their house - the same Utah that beat Michigan in South Bend and just beat Oregon State - the giant killer. Instead, Fiutak joins the "experts" that blow the reputation of teams in the Big 10, Big 12, Pac 10 and SEC to mythical proportions.


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Has anyone out there done the analysis of the perception of "big boy" schools and the media markets?<br /><br />New York = Big East<br />Boston = ACC<br />Philadelphia = Big East/Big 10<br />Washington D.C. = Big East<br />Georgia/Florida = SEC<br />Texas = Big 12<br />California = Pac 10<br />Denver = Big 12<br />etc.<br /><br />There is a media misconception that Big Media market equates to better sports teams. And not just in College Football. But it is in Top-division College Football in which and elitest sub-group has been allowed to co-opt the system and the sport.

NeanderthalNeanderthal
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This is a flawed argument. They rationalize keeping BYU out of the title game or in the top 10 because they wouldn't go unscathed in the SEC? These are the same guys who concede the fact that a 1 or 2 loss SEC school would still be worthy of a show in the title game!<br /><br />Put BYU in the ACC, Big East, or Big 10 and you better believe they've got a great chance of running the table, and thus being worthy of a title game shot. <br /><br />The same goes for BSU and maybe even Utah. This just shows the corruption of the BCS system and how all of the talking heads on FS and ESPN buy into it. You can manipulate your rationale however you want to keep the non-BCS teams from eating at the big kid table.<br /><br />Playoff system needed - settle it on the field.


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Where is the Boise State coverage? All the article talks about is BYU who has never made it to a BCS bowl. No brings up that B.S.U. has never lost a game in football to a current member of the MWC. TCU or Utah will upset BYU.

trumpetman595trumpetman595
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Have u guys heard that he ever appeared on the SEXY&WEALTHY dating club **R I C H M A T C H M A K I N G. C O M** for hot singles to hook up? There are his hot photos and Lots of hot girls are found in his circle there. I've been there for day, it seems the girls are not hard to hook up.lol

cherrycheesecherrycheese
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nee4pead: you are right on the money, along with igniter. keep it up.<br />watch out for them cougars from Provo. they're coming!!!

ByuCougsFanByuCougsFan
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Igniter is right. and the man who wrote the article above is a dip #$@! If BYU and Utah were in the Pac 10 or Big 12, or any other conference they would be able to hold their own because they would then be open to gain the better recruits that often over look SLC or Provo in favor of a BC$ program. You put BYU and Utah in a BC$ league they would steal your recruits and pummel you more often than not. But as Igniter says: "The point is moot", because it will never happen. The BC$ was set up to prevent a 1984 from happening again, but guess what? It will eventually. I for one am tired of the elitist attitude that is the AP and BC$. Get a real deciding factor for the real champion. No excuses MAKE A PLAYOFF HAPPEN!!! THEN THERE IS NO DEBATE.

nee4peadnee4pead
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SAMMY: Im still here..Just had to go do alittle work..and I'm still lying quietly in da grass stalking...

DAWGFAN2DAWGFAN2
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I lost my Dawg

sammymyamisammymyami
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DAWG - Sorry, had to go downstairs to the garage to meet up with "The Man"...he had a nice envelope of Benjamins for me...$$$$$CHA CHING !!!!!

sammymyamisammymyami
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rmb writes, "The BCS and the coaches do not want to see another UGA , hawaii match up." <br /><br />Really? Then why is BYU rated #7 by the coaches right now? Are you suggesting that because the final score in last year's Sugar Bowl was 41-10 in favor of Georgia that the BCS made a mistake in putting Hawaii in the Sugar Bowl? Does this mean that the BCS was mistaken in 2006 when it pitted Florida against Ohio St. for the NC? (FL 41 - OSU 14), or in 2004 when USC trounced Oklahoma 55-19? Do you base who deserves to go to a BCS game on whether or not the final score was close? That is rediculous and the ultimate in Monday Morning Quarterbacking. <br /><br />You can't just look at a final score and say, "Oh, it wasn't even close. They didn't deserve to be there." Fact is that non-BCS teams have only been given three opportunities and are 2-1 in BCS bowls. That is a .667 winning percentage equaled only by the Pac 10 (.667, 8-4) and surpassed by only one conference, the SEC (.733, 11-4). Meanwhile the ACC is 1-9 in BCS Bowl games for a whopping winning percentage of .100. Are you kidding me? 1-9? In 10 tries compared the Non-BCS schools' 3 tries they have only one win. And the ACC has an automatic bid because...?<br /><br />I am realistic enough to know that if BYU or Utah were in the Pac 10 or Big 12 or SEC that they are not going to win the conference every year (though they might more often than not in the ACC or Big East), but then again neither are the teams that are in those conferences. Power is always shifting. Recruiting and success goes in cycles. What about USC in the late 80's and 90's. Where has Alabama been the last few years until now. Nobody dominates forever, but when success does come a team can do something special, regardless of conference.

IgniterIgniter
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Naw Sammy...I'm right here....Still lurking in da shadows....waiting....searching....stalking...

DAWGFAN2DAWGFAN2
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Two things:<br /><br />1) There is nothing that BYU enjoys about being in the Mountain West Conference. If any BC$ conference allowed them in, they would jump at the chance faster than Charles Barkley jumps at a plate of doughnuts. Therefore, the point is moot as to how they would play in these conferences if they aren't given the opportunity.<br /><br />2) BYU scheduled both UCLA and Washington as non-conference games a good five years ago. There is no way in Helsinki, Finland that anyone could have known that these two teams wouldn't be good this year. BYU has Notre Dame, Florida State, and several other schools on the non-conference schedule over the next few years and that's all they can do - hope these teams will be good when they play them.

JohnNewmunJohnNewmun
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FL on the road at Ark....-24.5 points....scary

sammymyamisammymyami
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GATOR: Yall play who this Sat??

DAWGFAN2DAWGFAN2
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Did I lose the Loch Ness DAWG...dam

sammymyamisammymyami
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P.S. My big game for my 5star this week....Texas Tech lays the wood to K State...LAYS THE LUMBER!!!

sammymyamisammymyami
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Dawg- GoGo - Heres what Bama & I concur on so far:<br />Pitt +13.5 <br />Utah - 10<br />S. Caro +3 vs. Miss <br />Vandy +3<br />Illinois +2.3 vs. Michigan<br />Ohio St-2 vs. Wisky

sammymyamisammymyami
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Sorry guys..I love that guy Kentuckytim..All week he just jumps in and says "upset" and UK is going to win...Nope boys today is not a day for Dawgs & Gators to get into it with Big 12ers or Penn Sters...The underdogs came out for me last weekend and I was telling BamaGib - I am 7-1 in my last 8 SEC games and the gambling gods just will not let me stay this hot...So I am seeking other "opinions" for my selections this week....

sammymyamisammymyami
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Y'all know they say an alligator can run as fast as a horse. Thankfully, while encountering my share of gators in the wild in FL, I never met one that hungry. Hunting way back when I would be on my four-wheeler in the slough and would have to stop and wait for alligators to cross in front...sometimes as big as 11 feet. Kinda creepy.

gogators1713gogators1713
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