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Separating Big 12 wheat from the chaff

by Jeffrey Martin, Special to FOXSports.com


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Updated: October 3, 2008, 11:40 AM EDT
Do you remember how many SEC teams were in the Top 25 last year during the first week of October?

We can't, either.

Which isn't to suggest the Big 12's six-pack this week in the Associated Press wasn't impressive — or noteworthy. It is, and it was. The league finished the first five weeks of the season with a combined 38-10 record, but now, its teams are entering conference play.

"It all sorts out when you start playing each other," Missouri coach Gary Pinkel said.

The point is, having six teams ranked isn't very important in the grand, overall scheme. It's quite an accomplishment, occurring only one other time (Sept. 22, 2002) in league history.

But it's about the timing when it comes to making these statements.

Teams, particularly in the Big 12, will be defined by what happens in December and, hopefully, January. Right now, that's what separates the SEC, the reigning king of the mountain, from the rest of the country. But you have to play yourself into position to be around in December and January, and that's why the next eight weeks are so crucial.

So, in an effort to eliminate the guesswork from the Big 12 race, we've decided to inform you which teams to continue to pay close attention to and which you might want to avoid.

We've come up with the following five categories to make sense of it all, beginning with...

NATIONAL CONTENDERS

It's a tough group to break into because having prior experience is usually recommended, but a neophyte with a flashy résumé might catch the right set of eyes.

Oklahoma (4-0): The best team in the country? For the time being, sure. Go ahead, find a weakness. The defending Big 12 champions possess few. Have to love Bob Stoops' mind-set about being No. 1 — he was asked if the Sooners have a larger bull's-eye on their back, and Stoops said, "We generally have a good-sized one regardless of the ranking." Been there, done that, and that's why OU has to be considered a national contender. That, and Sam Bradford is exceptional, too.

Missouri (4-0): The fact that the Tigers haven't won in 30 years at Nebraska is hardly even a topic of discussion this week. This program has gone big-time, with its coach, Pinkel, whisked away on a day-long tour of ESPN last week, and its star, Chase Daniel, being promoted heavily for the Heisman Trophy. Note that these things are occurring under the promise, the potential of contending nationally, and Missouri, the defending Big 12 North champ, is poised to repeat, if not advance further. Maybe the Big 12 Championship result will be reversed this year.

NATIONAL PRETENDERS

Not as many teams in this group as you'd think, but membership here is generally earned by virtue of being at the right place at the wrong time.

Kansas (3-1): Media darlings from a year ago, some have labeled the Jayhawks among the nation's elite. That opinion isn't shared here. Have to love quarterback Todd Reesing, who might be the most valuable player, in the truest sense of the term, in the Big 12. And while the defense sprung a few leaks in a nationally televised showdown against South Florida, last time we checked the Bulls were undefeated, playing at home on a Friday night and ranked in the Top 10. It's a loss the Jayhawks can tolerate, but a rugged schedule — at Oklahoma Oct. 18, vs. Missouri at Arrowhead Stadium Nov. 15 — means they should also be expecting a couple more before the season is finished.

Texas Tech (4-0): The Red Raiders are loaded — but so is everyone else in the South. The offensive line is massive — but so is Oklahoma's. Graham Harrell is a difference-maker at quarterback — but every team in the conference, it seems, has a stud signal-caller. Wide receiver Michael Crabtree is a beast — but some prefer Missouri's Jeremy Maclin as the league's best. And so on, etc. But the most fascinating twist in all of this is Mike Leach's development of a running game, which might allow the Red Raiders to salt away a big lead. Everything seems to have fallen in place for Leach this season, except for the game against Oklahoma. It's in Norman, and odds are having one loss will eliminate a team from claiming the South.

CONFERENCE CONTENDERS

The usual suspects tend to comprise this group, but a surprise team or two tends to sneak past the bouncer and gain entry into this always-bumping club.

Texas (4-0): A brutal Big 12 schedule awaits the Longhorns, who have run up an undefeated record with junior quarterback Colt McCoy serving as their leading rusher. "He's having a Heisman-type of year," Colorado coach Dan Hawkins said of McCoy. There is always enough talent on the roster, and believe it or not, Texas might be a little underrated or undervalued right now with all of the emphasis elsewhere (see above). Still a threat, but not as dangerous as years past.

Colt McCoy has carried Texas with his arms and his legs. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)

Colorado (3-1): It's a hunch, but also something of a calculated guess based on the rest of the North. With a little help, the Buffaloes could play a role in how the division shakes out. And if CU opens this weekend with an upset of Texas, the Buffs will serve notice that Folsom Field is where upsets can occur. Then again, this all might be false optimism under the assumption that Hawkins, who was magnificent at Boise State, will finally turn the corner in Boulder. One of the also-rans has to, and it seems like CU is best positioned to take advantage, even with away games at Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska.

CONFERENCE PRETENDERS

Also known as the "Broken Promises Club," these are teams that should be better and have gotten their fan bases re-energized — but still remain destined for mediocrity.

Nebraska (3-1): Bo Pelini, bless his heart. He's emotional, sometimes to his team's detriment. But being fiery, especially at the college level, isn't a bad thing. Pelini, though, might have too many of those moments this season as the Huskers struggle to grasp his defensive scheme. The pride is back, and if the winning returns, Pelini will be a god among Corn. But the process is going to be gradual, although a bowl appearance in 2008 isn't far-fetched.

Oklahoma State (4-0): This is a program on the verge. Mike Gundy has stockpiled an absurd amount of talent in Stillwater, but it might be a year away from maturing. Oh, the Cowboys will throw a scare into the rival Sooners, but they'll slip up along the way and drop a couple — circle an Oct. 18 home date against Baylor and a Nov. 15 trip to Colorado as candidates — they shouldn't have. Ranked No. 21 in the country, OSU travels to Missouri next week for what should be an amazing and high-scoring game.

NOT CONTENDING, JUST PRETENDING

This group doesn't discriminate, although only a select few toil here. Fittingly, most are led by new or recently hired coaches, which is telling in more ways than one.

Iowa State (2-2): Gene Chizik is using so many underclassmen, he has no choice but to be patient and embrace the growing pains. "We've got to keep doing what we do and get better at it," he said. In Ames, it's always a rebuilding season, isn't it?

Kansas State (3-1): The offense is prolific, home to the nation's eighth-most efficient quarterback (Josh Freeman) and the nation's leader in receiving yards (Brandon Banks). But the defense is a train wreck, and that's not good in this conference. Baylor (2-2): Robert Griffin is a terrific building block. He'll attract more talent to Waco, where Art Briles just might be the right guy for the job. "We're trying to change the way people view us and the way we respond to how people view us," he said. "We need to be a player in the Big 12 South, not just a member." Amen, brother.

Texas A&M (2-2): How much worse can it get in College Station? Former NFL coach Mike Sherman earns a free pass in Year 1. A roster overhaul might be in order, which takes more time. How long will the restless A&M faithful be tolerant?

And by the way, there were five SEC teams in the Sept. 30, 2007 poll. But bet you didn't realize the Big 12 had just as many that week.

Jeffrey Martin is a frequent contributor to foxsports.com. He also writes for the Kansas City Star and the Wichita Eagle. He can be reached at reyheath@gmail.com.

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Already picking the Big 12 championship game is funny. The last two years shows that most sports writers have no idea what talented football teams look like. Give credit where credit is due and quit talking like there is only two teams in the Big 12.

reedco377reedco377
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mcbangor,<br /><br />You should switch teams and conferences. You're type of comments are degrading to Texas, the Big 12, as well as to yourself. You sound more like you'd fit in with a SEC team or a PAC 10 team. Sorry, but Big 12 fans should continue to be the standard by which sportsmanship and class are judged. Show some respect if you want anyone to even think you're worthy of listening to.

larrichanlarrichan
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BEVO EATIN GRILLED BUFFALO!!!!<br /><br />LIGHT THESE ****S UP!!!!<br /><br />HOOK EM HORNS!!!!

mcbangormcbangor
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HOOK EM HORNS!!!!<br /><br />KICK THE **** OUTTA THOSE COLORADO HIPPY BITCHES!!!

mcbangormcbangor
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The RRR, as usual, should be a great one this year. How many times in history has the winner of this game gone on to play in the NCC when both teams went into this game ranked in the top 10, top 5? Anyone know? This is a game I will never ever bet on, regardless of how much better one team looks over the other - look at the upsets. This (in my opinion) is the greatest rivalry game in college football.

larrichanlarrichan
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Sooners22, we started the year off at #19. After beating UTEP 55-14, we fell to #20 for some reason, at the Ark State game. Then moved up to 17, 14, 10 (RRS), 8 (vs. K-State), and 3 (vs. #1 Nebraska on October 28). We were #1 for the remainder of the year.

Danny45Danny45
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Conference contender....Colorado????????? Obviously Jeffery Wright wrote this coloumn without ever watching the Buffs play this year. They could have EASILY lost the Eastern Washington and WVU games and got manhandled at FSU last weekend.....they could be 1-3 or 2-2 but are a lucky 3-1.....there's no way in hell they'll contend of for the conference title.....

rodneylamarodneylama
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Danny45- didn't we start the year out like 24th or something in 2000?

SOONERS22SOONERS22
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I really hope UT can pull it off against CU and OK does the same against Baylor to see the College Gameday crowd with both UT and OU fans screaming. Red River Shootout here we come!!!<br /><br />HOOM EM HORNS

BigD_beats_allBigD_beats_all
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Here ya go Sooner Fans.<br /><br />www.youtube.com/watch?v=V55DtWevqHc

Danny45Danny45
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Correction. We were #10 when we beat #11 Texas, then #2 Kansas State, and #1 Nebraska, back to back to back.<br /><br />en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Oklahoma_Soon...

Danny45Danny45
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Sooners22, you're somewhat right. OU was like 12th or so when we beat Texas in 2000. Texas, I think, was 10th. But then we beat #2 Kansas State, and #1 Nebraska back to back. That catapulted OU to #1, where we stayed the remainder of the year.

Danny45Danny45
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The schedule seems to favor all the Big12 contenders , especially in the south !

soonerbillyp79soonerbillyp79
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I normally don't comfort texas fans but texas is sitting right where OU was back in 2000 when we won our last NC. That tough schedule is nothing but opportunity, I can't remember the exact numbers but we beat like three top ten teams in october? It's a really exciting time to be a part of the big 12 so hang on the next few weeks will be good.

SOONERS22SOONERS22
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Does anyone out there think TT is for real, I think their defense might not be that good just yet .

soonerbillyp79soonerbillyp79
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First let me say I am so pumped for our conference this year. But this week starts the carnage. Texas does seem to have the most difficult schedule in the pack which is scary but exciting at the same time. My stomach is already in knots just thinking about the RRR. I think Mizzou will definitely get upset by teams with decent Ds. OU has everything to lose right now. It's a shame Tech has to be in the Big XII South, the'll never make it to the final game. And although OSU is not in the running this year, there is always that potential for them to upset...they are like the Mich State or Oregon State in their respective conferences. Random thoughts I know, but needless to say this is going to be one helluva ride! HOOK 'EM!

bevobabebevobabe
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Heh, this will be an interesting year indeed. I can't wait to see how our confrence will basically destroy themselves in the chances of being in the National Title.<br /><br />While I would love to see a Big 12 representative be in that spot, I feel it will be very unlikely... (I'd be hoping for KU, but that's too far-fetched, even for a fan like me).<br /><br />For starters, no team in our confrence will enter the B12 Championship undefeated.<br /><br />I just hope somebody takes down Mizzou so the North division has a shot at winning the Big 12 crown. Sorry MU, but you ****ed up twice last year... we don't want to see a repeat.

Code_2008Code_2008
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Well, I am a female and per roskizzi's request, I hereby comment. This should be a most interesting year in the Big 12. Texas playing CU, OU and MO in successive weeks is a real test. Texas Tech is better than you think. I am hoping the RRR sets up as the winner getting a claim to the top spot and the loser not dropping so much...which means the game needs to be competitive and exciting...just what ABC wants every year. That being said, Go Horns.

betwoodbetwood
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The Horns will be ready for Ok. But we are taking it one game at a time. The Buff. are on our minds now. Texas by 14. Hook em Horns

rwinegeartrwinegeart
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The Horns will be ready for Oklahoma next, but the Horns are taking it one game at a time Colorado is on our minds now.

rwinegeartrwinegeart
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