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Longhorns' reign will be short-lived

by Michael Rosenberg

Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg is a contributor to FOXSports.com. An archive of his Free Press columns can be found here.


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Updated: October 15, 2008, 11:22 AM EDT
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The Texas Longhorns are No. 1 in the country now. They might be No. 1 at the end of the season.

But they will not stay No. 1. Not with this schedule. If the Longhorns swim to the national title, they'll need to use the butterfly stroke — stick their heads underwater for a bit, then pop back up.

This is not a knock on Texas, which claimed the No. 1 ranking by beating then-No. 1 Oklahoma in Dallas Saturday. It's just that the Longhorns are in the middle of a four-week stretch against Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Those four teams are a combined 22-2; the only two losses were Missouri's loss to Oklahoma State and Oklahoma's loss to Texas.

Oklahoma, Missouri, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are averaging a combined 190 points per game, a statistic that seemed pretty cool when I found it but now looks kind of silly. I mean, who cares if four teams are combining to score 190 points? They don't all get to play at once, do they?

The point here is that these teams are all really good, and at least one of them will beat Texas. This is how it works in every sport — an NFL powerhouse facing four straight playoff teams will surely lose at least once. The difference here is that a loss could cost Texas the national title.

On paper, Oklahoma was the highest hurdle the Longhorns had to leap. But any of the next three teams can trip them up. And this is just a personal theory here, but I don't think it helps that Big 12 football looks like pinball this season, with the ball flying all over the place and scores skyrocketing.

Texas, like pretty much everybody else in the league, wins with offense first. Teams can win a national title that way. Steve Spurrier did it at Florida. But it is extremely difficult to win four straight shootouts — harder, I think, than a defense-first team winning four straight battles.

Even the best offenses will have games with a few killer mistakes. And you can bet that when that happens to Texas, then Missouri or Oklahoma State or Texas Tech (or maybe even Kansas) will put together a terrific offensive performance and win a shootout.

My guess is that it happens this week, when Texas native Chase Daniel and Missouri visit Austin.

My top five

(From a man who doesn't have or want a vote in any poll, and couldn't compile a computer rating unless there is some way to do it in Microsoft Word)

1. Alabama

The Crimson Tide get the nod over the Longhorns because dismantling Georgia in Athens is slightly more impressive than beating Oklahoma in Dallas.

2. Texas

Of course, the other side of the argument is that Oklahoma is probably better than Georgia. Which is true. Anyway, the most meaningless argument in all of sports is No. 1 vs. No. 2 in October. First, because it's OCTOBER, and second, No. 1 and No. 2 play at the end of the season anyway, so who cares which one is first and which is second?

3. Penn State

As of the late 1990s, no coach had ever beaten Joe Paterno three years in a row. Then Lloyd Carr beat JoePa nine straight times, in every torturous way imaginable: on a last-second play that cost Penn State an undefeated season (in 2005), in a blowout with national-title implications (1997), in a shutout (2001) and in overtime (2002).

Now Michigan is 2-4 and Penn State is 7-0. The game is in Happy Valley. This has the feel of Penn State 35, Michigan 3 early in the second half.

4. Oklahoma

"Big Game" Bob Stoops is 1-4 in his last five bowl games and 1-3 in his last four games against Texas. And this proves, um, that you can use a coach's nickname against him if you hold him to a ridiculously high standard. Stoops is still one of the best coaches in the country.

5. Southern California

USC has one ranked team left on its schedule — No. 25 Cal. I can't figure out if this is good for the Trojans, because they are unlikely to lose, or bad, because they don't have many chance to impress voters or computers. What a wonderfully baffling sport.

Four for the Heisman

1. Colt McCoy, Texas
2. Sam Bradford, Oklahoma
3. Chase Daniel, Missouri
4. Javon Ringer, Michigan State

So if Daniel leads Missouri past Texas, and he and Bradford and McCoy and Zac Robinson (of Oklahoma State) and Graham Harrell (of Texas Tech) all put up ridiculous numbers, will there be any way to tell their Heisman candidacies apart? Will a couple of you guys please play poorly? For me?

Under the Table

  • Reason 9,043,768 why college football is great: you'll be sitting at home Thursday night, flipping through the channels, when you discover that unbeaten, No. 9 BYU is playing a night game against 6-1 TCU. And you had no idea! Except I just told you. So forget we even had this conversation.

  • Speaking of which: somebody needs to research whether home teams win more night games than day games. They certainly seem more intimidating, but are they really?

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