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Iowa helps bring SEC-Big 12 battle one step closer

by Don Borst, Special to FOXSports.com


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Updated: November 10, 2008, 1:42 AM EST
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Fans across America can thank the Iowa Hawkeyes.

Iowa's dramatic victory Saturday bumped Penn State out of the way, so college football will get what it needs and what we all want this season.

We learned Saturday that the BCS championship game will be between an SEC team and a Big 12 team, almost no matter what happens the rest of the way. We don't know if it's going to be Alabama vs. Texas Tech, or Florida vs. Oklahoma, or if Texas can sneak in there, but the number of variables have shrunken significantly thanks to Daniel Murray's last-second 31-yard field goal in Kinnick Stadium.

Hey, this is not meant to dump on Penn State. The Nittany Lions are having a great season, and they deserve to go to the Rose Bowl.

But we were cringing at the possibility of spending the month of December inundated with the notion that poor Joe Pa and his program could finish undefeated without a national championship for the fifth time (joining the 1968, 1969, 1973, and 1994 seasons).

And let's face it: The 2008 season is all about the SEC and the Big 12. Or is the Big 12 and the SEC?

The dream matchup, at least at this point, is Alabama vs. Texas Tech, since each team continued to play undefeated football Saturday. But that could easily change, largely because the top teams still have big showdowns remaining.

After the way Alabama overcame LSU in overtime, and the way Texas Tech obliterated Oklahoma State, the next monster showdown of the season has to wait until Nov. 22, when Tech visits Oklahoma, with the Big 12 South championship possibly at stake. We say "possibly" because of the strange situation of a potential unbreakable three-way triangle of a tie.

Texas Tech beat Texas, Texas beat Oklahoma, and if Oklahoma beats Tech, and they all finish 11-1 with a 7-1 conference record, they would be Big 12 South Division tri-champions and the team that would go into the conference championship game would be whoever the BCS says.

Yes, BCS ranking is the tiebreaker, and it sure seems as though Oklahoma would vault over Texas if the Sooners finish so strongly.

At any rate, the way this is shaking out indicates we'd have to see a succession of unthinkable upsets to keep a Big 12 team out of the national championship game against the SEC champion. It's like this:

  • If Texas Tech wins out: Texas Tech vs. Alabama/Florida winner.
  • If Oklahoma wins out: Oklahoma vs. Alabama/Florida winner.
  • If the winner of OU/Tech loses to Missouri in Big 12 title game: Texas vs. Alabama/Florida winner.
  • Of course, the real corkers would be if Vanderbilt or Auburn beat Alabama, or if South Carolina, The Citadel, or Florida State beat Florida.

    Here's how we expect it to shake out:

  • BCS championship game: Florida vs. Texas Tech
  • Rose Bowl: Oregon State vs. Penn State
  • Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. USC
  • Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah (or BYU or Boise State)
  • Orange Bowl: Big East vs. ACC champions

    All-Big 12 title game?

    It could happen. Of course, lots of things could still happen.

    But consider that if Texas Tech or Oklahoma runs the table and Florida gets tagged with a second loss before facing and beating Alabama in the SEC championship game, we could see Texas sneak into the title game for a rematch with the Big 12 champion.

    Beavers and the Roses

    Oregon State beat UCLA, 34-6, and by winning six of its past seven games, has the inside track on USC. This despite the Beavers' three losses — including a 45-14 beatdown at Penn State back on Sept. 6.

    So, now that the Nittany Lions are almost surely headed for the Rose Bowl (as long as they can beat Indiana and Michigan State), they face the prospect of a no-win opportunity against OSU in Pasadena. The red-hot Beavers would need to lose to California, Arizona, or Oregon in order for the Rose Bowl to invite one-loss USC for what would be a memorable New Year's Day matchup.

    Interestingly, the only other time Penn State has gotten to the Rose Bowl as a member of the Big Ten, the Lions were disappointed to square off against a three-loss Oregon squad (1994 season).

    Arizona breaks bowl drought

    Arizona emerged from nine years of bowl-less seasons Saturday, while Vanderbilt lost its fourth straight game and watched its bowl hopes remain in limbo (if not worse).

    Vandy, despite its much-feted 5-0 start, now needs to beat at least one (and possibly two) of Kentucky, Tennessee, or Wake Forest to break their 25-year bowl drought. Arizona moved to 6-3 by punking Washington State, 59-28.

    MWC and MAC add pelts

    The Mountain West and Mid-American conferences continued their stunning seasons, with Wyoming winning at Tennessee, and Western Michigan beating defending Big Ten champion Illinois. That's the fourth time this season that a MAC team has beaten a Big Ten team (Michigan, and Indiana twice, are the others), as well wins over Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and both Army and Navy.

    The MWC, meanwhile, can count victories in 2008 over Michigan, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon State, and now Tennessee. That was otherwise-woeful Wyoming (the eighth-best team in the MWC) who went to Rocky Top and came home with a 13-7 triumph.

    Heisman update

    The Heisman Trophy race is very tough to handicap this year. Consider that earlier, we were anxious to give our vote to Missouri quarterback Chase Daniel, and then Texas quarterback Colt McCoy, and at various times we have loved watching Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Florida's Tim Tebow, and for a short while, even running backs Knowshon Moreno (Georgia) and Javon Ringer (Michigan State) ... and we cannot ignore Texas Tech WR Michael Crabtree.

    Still, Red Raiders quarterback Graham Harrell has faced three ranked opponents in a row (Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma State), and has accounted for 1,316 yards with absolutely incredible 110-for-145 (76%) accuracy. That's with 13 touchdowns and no interceptions.

    If he can keep that up against Oklahoma (and the Sooners defense has given up at least four touchdowns in five games in a row), it will be almost impossible not to give the trophy to him.

    Trojans own November

    USC won its sixth game in a row, pushing its average score in that time to 39-4, as they try to make the case that they're the best one-loss team in the country (although there would be plenty of argument over that in Norman, Okla., Gainsville, Fla., and Austin, Texas).

    Yet, of all the impressive accomplishments in the Pete Carroll Era, perhaps the most eye-popping is the Trojans' mark in November: 24-0. The 17-3 victory over Cal was impressive and hardly ever in doubt, even though the Bears had a touchdown called back by a weak holding penalty, and replays showed that USC's first TD was actually an incomplete pass.

    This week's big games

    There are no monster showdowns this week, with Oklahoma and Texas Tech both taking the week off, but some key games in which teams will be trying to hold serve:

  • Ball State at Miami, Ohio — Cardinals try to keep their perfect record intact in a weird Tuesday night on the schedule.
  • Virginia Tech at Miami, Fla. — A good Thursday night game that will have a major bearing on the ACC Coastal Division title.
  • South Carolina at Florida — This is much more than Steve Spurrier returning to The Swamp; Gators need to sustain roll, SC has won 6 of past 7 games.
  • Texas at Kansas — Kind of a trap game for the Longhorns, who are still in position for a possible BCS title chance.
  • California at Oregon State — Key challenge for Beavers as they continue to track down first Rose Bowl since 1965 season.
  • Vanderbilt at Kentucky — Can Vandy break losing streak and become bowl eligible?
  • Mississippi State at Alabama — Tide needs to continue rolling, and lost to Bulldogs last season.
  • USC at Stanford — USC still has Rose Bowl in its sights; Cardinal must beat Trojans or Cal to become bowl eligible.

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