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Texas has toughest task of one-loss teams
Bowl season roundup
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Bowl recaps and analysis:
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EagleBank: Wake 29, Navy 19 | CFN
New Mexico: Colo. St. 40, Fresno St. 35
St. Petersburg: S. Florida 41, Memphis 14
Las Vegas: Arizona 31, BYU 21 | CFN
New Orleans: SMU 30, Troy 27 (OT) | CFN
Poinsettia: TCU 17, Boise St. 16 | CFN
Hawaii: Notre Dame 49, Hawaii 21 | CFN
Motor City: FAU 24, Cen. Mich. 21 | CFN
Meineke: W. Virginia 31, UNC 30 | CFN
Champs Sports: Fla. St. 42, Wis. 13 | CFN
Emerald: Cal 24, Miami 17 | CFN
Independence: La. Tech 17, NIU 10 | CFN
Papajohns.com: Rutgers 29, N.C. St. 23
Alamo: Mizzou 30, N'west. 23 (OT) | CFN
Humanitarian: Maryland 42, Nevada 35
Texas: Rice 38, W. Michigan 14
Holiday: Oregon 42, Oklahoma St. 31 | CFN
Armed Forces: Houston 34, Air Force 28
Sun: Oregon St. 3, Pittsburgh 0 | CFN
Music City: Vandy 16, BC 14 | CFN
Insight: Kansas 42, Minnesota 21
Chick-fil-A: LSU 38, Georgia Tech 3
Outback: Iowa 31, South Carolina 10 | CFN
Capital One: Georgia 24, MSU 12 | CFN
Gator: Nebraska 26, Clemson 21
Rose: USC 38, Penn St. 24 | Analysis
Orange: Va. Tech 20, Cincinnati 7
Cotton: Ole Miss 47, Texas Tech 34
Liberty: Kentucky 25, East Carolina 19
Sugar: Utah 31, Alabama 17
International: UConn 38, Buffalo 20
Fiesta: Texas 24, Ohio St. 21 | Analysis
GMAC: Tulsa 45, Ball St. 13
BCS title: Florida 24, Oklahoma 14
Photo gallery:
Shopping:
1. The BCS scenarios ... in the simplest of terms
I received a lot of e-mails this week asking what each of the top teams need to do and see happen to get to Miami for the BCS Championship Game. Let's break it down in the simplest terms possible. I don't have a vote in any of the polls, but this is how I see it all playing out. You'll be surprised over which team's actually got the toughest road.
Alabama: Win out, and they're in.
Status: In Control
Texas Tech: Win out, and they're in.
Status: In Control
Texas: Likely needs to win out, have Oklahoma beat Texas Tech, AND Oklahoma State beat Oklahoma.
Status: Very Crappy
Florida: Win out, and they're in.
Status: In Control
Oklahoma: Beat Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, and Missouri in the Big 12 Championship Game.
Status: In Control
USC: Needs to win out, have Oregon State lose and have Missouri win the Big 12 Championship Game.
Status: Unlikely
Utah: Not happening.
Status: Sorry.
So, the team that's in the least fortunate position? It appears as though it's Texas. Having only lost to the No. 2 team in the nation in a quirky game on the road on a last-second play — in which they came back valiantly in the fourth quarter — you'd think the Longhorns would be in much better shape. Let me explain.
The order of the Longhorns' schedule simply did them no favors this season. The trip to Lawrence this weekend, which before the season was expected to be a colossal clash between Big 12 powers, no longer has much value with Kansas having already lost four games on the year. Texas then finishes with its annual game against Texas A&M; an Aggies team that may just be the worst in the Big 12 this year.
Whereas Oklahoma, which lost to Texas in October, finishes the season with games against top-15 teams in Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, Texas plays two of the Big 12's bottom teams. If I know anything about the BCS, "what have you done for me lately?" definitely comes into play.
On top of momentum, the strength of schedule factor gives the Sooners the definite edge over Texas as well. Early-season wins over No. 22 Cincinnati and No. 18 TCU — two potential conference champions — help the Sooners tremendously. Texas's only win over a non-conference opponent with a record better than .500 was its September win over Rice.
As you've likely heard by now, in the case of a three-way tie between one-loss Texas, one-loss Texas Tech, and one-loss Oklahoma at the end of the season, the Big 12 South tie-breaker is, strangely enough, the order of the latest BCS Standings. Talk about a bizarre situation. In that scenario, based on the reasons above, I think Oklahoma would get the nod over both Texas and Texas Tech.
"But the 'Horns beat the Sooners a month ago!" you scream. Yes, and Missouri beat Kansas a year ago. After Missouri lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 Championship a week later, it was Kansas who got the at-large BCS Bowl bid and played in the Orange Bowl. It's quirky, I know. But again, thus is the system.
Of course, none of any of that will matter at all if Texas Tech can get by Oklahoma in Norman next weekend.
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| Oregon State is USC's biggest problem in the BCS. (Lisa Blumenfeld / Getty Images) |
In other words, it's on you, Graham Harrell.
2. USC has something other than BCS to worry about
Forget the BCS Championship Game. USC is by no means a lock to even play in the Rose Bowl this year. In fact, the Trojans are going to need a bit of help from a few of the conference foes they've been whooping on each week to get there.
Yes, while everyone in Los Angeles is talking about all the potential BCS Championship scenarios that would sneak the Trojans into Miami, there's a good chance USC isn't even going to win the Pac-10.
The 6-3 Oregon State Beavers, who beat the Trojans on Sept. 25, actually control their own destiny for a Rose Bowl berth.
After horrendous losses to Stanford and Penn State to start the year, the Beavers have now won six of their last seven games. They're 5-1 in the Pac-10, and hold the tiebreaker over USC. Oregon State hasn't played in a Rose Bowl since 1964. People are pumped in Beaver country.
But no one in Corvallis should be booking a plane ticket for Pasadena just yet. Oregon State has three games left on the schedule, and none of them will be walks in the park. Although they've won five straight Pac-10 games, their longest such streak since 2000, the Beavers still need to get by Cal this weekend, Arizona next Saturday, and win their season finale versus Oregon.
That's a tough slate.
But this squad — led by a fiery coach and two feisty 5-foot-7 siblings on offense — may just be able to do it.
Of course, Cal's all that should be on the minds of the young Beavers. Oregon State has a bit of history on its side for this one. The Beavers have won seven of the teams' last nine meetings, including a 31-28 victory over the second-ranked Golden Bears last October.
That said, Cal's won its last two games in Corvallis by a combined 90-20 score.
Everyone — including quite a few USC fans — will be keeping their eyes on this one Saturday.
3. Don't forget about this Heisman candidate
Graham Harrell, Colt McCoy, or Sam Bradford get my Heisman vote right now, but before we just hand whichever quarterback wins the Big 12 South the award, let's consider an outside-the-box choice for a moment.
I know, I know — he's not the sexy choice. But let's at least acknowledge what 2007 winner Tim Tebow is doing down in Gainesville this year.
In nine games, Tebow's completed an SEC-best 65 percent of his passes, compiled an unheard of 167.1 passer rating, and thrown an SEC-best 17 touchdown passes. The junior quarterback's thrown just two interceptions on the year. Two! In the ground game, he's currently in the top 20 in the conference in rushing yards, is third in the conference in rushing touchdowns with 10, and already has Florida playing in its second conference championship game in three years.
Similar to last year, he's making a late-season surge for Heisman consideration. In the past three weeks, he's put up weekly quarterback passer ratings of 204.8, 227.2, and 213.32. In that same span, he's scored 14 touchdowns and thrown just 11 incomplete passes. Yep, that's three more touchdowns than incomplete passes!
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| Don't look now, but Tim Tebow has a Heisman case. (Doug Benc / Getty Images) |
I know it's not an exciting pick with all that's going on in the Big 12 this year, and even Tebow, himself — who has a vote — said that Texas quarterback Colt McCoy was playing like a Heisman winner. But let's not ignore what the award's defending champion is doing.
Last year against South Carolina, Tebow went 22-32 for 304 yards and threw two touchdowns. He also rushed the ball 26 times for 120 yards and scored five times on the ground. I doubt he'll put up numbers anything like the ones he did that night this weekend, but who knows? The guy's on fire. Anything is possible.
In truth, based on the Gators record this year compared to last, you could make the argument that Tebow's been an even better player in '08 than he was in '07.
Last year's Heisman winner would be the first person to tell you that.
4. UNC isn't just about hoops anymore
For the few North Carolina sports fans not monitoring Tyler Hansbrough's latest injury status on an hourly basis, there's quite a bit to love about the Tar Heels football squad these days. UNC is off to its best start since the Dre Bly '97 team, and has now won five of its last six. With last week's 28-7 win over Georgia Tech, the Tar Heels assured their first winning season since 2001. Bowl eligible for the first time since '04, UNC has a legitimate shot at its first ACC title since 1980.
They're taking it one game at a time, though, and Saturday's battle with Maryland is a "make or break" for both teams. According to Tar Heels quarterback Cameron Sexton, who started the season as the third stringer, "The biggest thing for us as a football program and we talk about it all the time, is just to take the games one at a time. We expect to win and play well. We do not worry about the rankings, but absolutely we expect to be here."
Maryland has given UNC fits this decade. Though UNC beat the Terps 16-13 last season, Maryland had won the previous four meetings before then. Maryland also hasn't lost a game at home or to a top-25 opponent this season.
Hey, the ACC's wide open. Here we are in mid-November, and six teams — three in the Atlantic division and three in the Coastal — are atop the standings with just two conference losses. Saturday's Terps-Tar Heels matchup is a huge one.
UNC-Maryland is usually about Roy and Gary Williams in mid-February. This time around, it's about an ACC title ... on the gridiron.
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| UNC isn't just about hoops anymore. (Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images) |
5. I wouldn't miss this for anything
Call me a sucker for offensive fireworks, but there's no way I'm missing the Houston-Tulsa shootout on Saturday night. The 1st- and 13th-highest scoring teams in the nation, this one could be one of those 64-54 freak shows we seem to get once every few years. Vegas currently has the over/under at 81 points.
It also has some serious Conference USA title implications.
Since the conference split into two divisions, Tulsa's won the Conference USA West Division title in 2005 and 2007, while Houston took it in 2006. This year, Todd Graham's Golden Hurricane are currently unbeaten in conference play, while Houston's 4-1. A Cougars win would likely keep the nationally ranked Golden Hurricane out of the conference championship game.
Adding some intrigue to the game is the fact that Tulsa beat the crap out of Houston last year in a 56-7 rout. That wound is still fresh in the Cougars' minds.
For as much press as Guz Malzahn's Tulsa offense gets, Houston's isn't exactly chopped liver, either. Currently fourth in Division 1-A in total offense with 547.3 yards per game, the Cougars have scored at least 40 points in four of their last five games. They put up 697 yards of offense against Tulane last week.
If you watch one Conference USA game all season, this may be the one.
That is, of course, unless you're a fan of defense.
SCHRAGER UPSET PICK OF THE WEEK: Air Force over No. 16 BYU.
SCHRAGER's THREE GRIPES:
1. People who wore Halloween costumes out on Nov. 1.
2. Not being able to watch Mountain West Thursday night games.
3. "Saved By Zero" being on less and less. I liked that commercial.
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