Week 13 wrap: National title picture no clearer
by Don Borst, Special to FOXSports.com
We learned that undefeated Utah will be in the Fiesta or Sugar or Orange Bowl.
We learned that Oklahoma is capable of playing a near-perfect game.
And we learned that our Heisman Trophy ballots need to stay in our hot little hands until all the games have been played.
Of course, we learned a lot more than that, but we still need two more weeks full of information to be sure of what it all means.
Unbreakable
The Big 12 South situation is so difficult that it would take a Rhodes Scholar to figure it out. And that's just what we have: So let's leave it up to Myron Rolle and his friends to take care of business this week.
If Rolle and suddenly impressive Florida State can somehow shock Florida, and then Florida goes ahead and beats Alabama in the SEC title game, we'd probably get Oklahoma vs. Texas in the national championship game.
Florida vs. Texas in the BCS title game is probably most likely and appropriate, even though Oklahoma seems to be the most complete team in the country. But the situation of the tri-championship of the Big 12 South leaves such an unbreakable, no-fair-way-to-figure-it-out tie that, well, we should really have a ... ah, never mind.
Big Bowl Update
It's pretty well decided who's going to be in the 10 BCS spots. We just don't know yet where they're going to play. In addition to Penn State, chances are, we've got Texas and Oklahoma, Alabama and Florida, USC, Utah, Cincinnati, and the ACC champion (whoever that turns out to be).
That leaves one other spot, and OSU will take it. The question is, which OSU? Oregon State or Ohio State?
It's like this: If Oregon State beats Oregon next week to earn the Pac-10's Rose Bowl spot, USC would become a free agent and be snapped up by the Fiesta or the Sugar. But if Oregon State loses, USC would go to the Rose Bowl, and Ohio State would land the final at-large spot.
So, the Big Ten is rooting for Oregon, while the Pac-10 is rooting for Oregon State. Got it?
Pasadena-bound
When Joe Paterno muttered in his post-game comments Saturday that he's happy for his team to "get out to the Rose Bowl or whatever pops up..." he presumably meant that he was still hoping for the BCS title game. Because other than the Rose Bowl, that's the only one of the BCS games for which his team is eligible.
"Or whatever pops up" might also suggest that there's a chance that the Nittany Lions could go elsewhere to not have to have a rematch with Oregon State; but BCS and Rose Bowl procedures do not allow for that adjustment ("The pairings may not be altered by removing the Big 10 champion or the Pac-10 champion from the Rose Bowl.").
Sorry, Boise
By the way, BCS bowls are allowed to take Boise State if they want, but they won't. Even if the Broncos finish with an undefeated record, they'll be behind Utah, and the BCS bowls are required to take only one of them.
Fiesta Party
Whether Texas or Oklahoma emerges above the other in the final BCS rankings to get to the national championship game, the Fiesta Bowl looks like it will be sitting pretty with a 3 vs. 4 matchup. Whichever of the Big 12 powers does NOT make it to the BCS championship game will be in the Fiesta Bowl, which then could pit it against an 11-1 USC ... or against an undefeated Utah.
Unpressured Underdogs
Missouri coach Gary Pinkel and his Tigers have to be relishing the opportunity of playing in the Big 12 championship game. They will have no pressure on them, while the Big 12 South representative will have every ounce of the expectations and pressure ... which would set things up perfectly for an upset. And let's not forget that Missouri is still really good, with super QB Chase Daniel capable of beating anybody.
Breaking down the races
- Pac-10: Oregon State wins the Pac-10 and goes to the Rose Bowl if it beats Oregon on Saturday. If the Beavers lose, and USC beats UCLA in two weeks, then the Trojans would go to the Rose Bowl. Otherwise, USC would go to the Sugar or Fiesta Bowl as long as it beats hapless Notre Dame and UCLA the next two weeks.
- Big East: Cincinnati wins the Big East title and goes to the Orange (probably) or Sugar if it can dispose of Syracuse on Saturday. If it loses, West Virginia is next in line.
- ACC Atlantic: Boston College wins the Atlantic Division if it beats Maryland on Saturday ... but if the Eagles lose, then Florida State wins the division.
- ACC Coastal: Virginia Tech wins the Coastal Division if it beats Virginia on Saturday ... but if Virginia wins, then Georgia Tech wins the division.
- SEC: Both Florida (Eastern) and Alabama (Western) have clinched division titles and will play in Atlanta on Dec. 6.
- Big 12: Missouri has won the North, while the South will go to whichever team (Texas or Oklahoma) is ranked highest by the BCS on Sunday, Nov. 30. Texas faces Texas A&M, while OU is at Oklahoma State this week.
Impressive Confidence
The most impressive thing about Oregon State's surge toward the Rose Bowl after beating Arizona on Saturday without their starting quarterback or starting tailback, who were injured is not that the Beavers knocked off USC. The most impressive thing is that they lost their season-opener against Stanford, and then lost to Penn State, 45-14, and then they fell behind Hawaii and they have been almost flawless ever since.
Since then, they have won seven of eight, including the past six in a row, and it was downright chilling the way coach Mike Riley showed confidence in his kicker, Justin Kahut, after Kahut shanked an extra point with 3:58 remaining. When the Beavers got the ball back with a minute to go and shocked Arizona by completing a 50-yard bomb in the last few seconds remaining to get to the 5-yard line, Riley didn't even risk a play for the end zone. Instead, he ran the clock down, moved the ball to the middle of the field, and sent Kahut back out there.
And the sophomore kicker didn't disappoint. Impressive.
At the Top of their Profession
Riley, by the way, should be one of the prime candidates for national coach of the year honors in a year in which there are at least 10 exceedingly worthy possibilities:
- Pat Fitzgerald, Northwestern: Nobody, and I mean nobody, thought the Wildcats would win nine games this season.
- Mike Leach, Texas Tech: The way his team was overmatched physically by Oklahoma shows that he has had the Red Raiders playing even better than their skills.
- Nick Saban, Alabama: With so many people assuming Alabama will lose to Florida, we're forgetting what a stunning rise this has been for the Tide.
- Kyle Whittingham, Utah: Will the Utes be able to keep him after he duplicated the season that made Urban Meyer such a hot item four years ago?
- Brian Kelly, Cincinnati: He's got the Bearcats one game from the Orange Bowl.
- Bob Stoops, Oklahoma: The tremendous improvement the Sooners made following the loss to Texas says volumes about the job of Stoops and his staff.
- Chris Peterson, Boise State: The Broncos need to beat Fresno State to finish off another perfect season ... but are definitely small-bowl bound.
How Low Can You Go?
How painful and meaningless are the next two weeks for Washington? After blowing their 11th game of the season in the final minute of regulation, and losing to their archrival WSU Cougars in overtime, the Huskies have a bye before finishing at California on Dec. 6. They're the only winless team in major college football this season.
Cal Poly also suffered through a difficult overtime defeat Saturday, but for the Div. II Mustangs, it came at Wisconsin, where three missed extra points (including one in overtime) proved to be their undoing. Watch for CP coach Rich Ellerson to become a strong candidate at Washington. He spent much of his career at Arizona as an assistant to Dick Tomey, and was instrumental in developing the Desert Swarm defense in the '90s.
As for the Heisman...
I want to be able to see the incredible Sam Bradford or Colt McCoy match up again against Chase Daniel before casting my ballot. And of course, watching Tim Tebow against that great Alabama defense is going to be required watching before filling it out.
Graham Harrell and/or Michael Crabtree could still get a second or third spot, but the way Oklahoma took them so thoroughly off their game, I doubt I would be able to give either the No. 1 vote.
Another week of big games
- Western Michigan at Ball State, Tuesday Weird night, but the MAC West title is at stake, as well as the Cardinals' quest for an undefeated season.
- Texas A&M at Texas, Thursday Thanksgiving showdown when the Longhorns will be looking to score some style points.
- West Virginia at Pittsburgh, Friday Backyard Brawl could still have Big East championship implications, depending on Syracuse beating Cincinnati.
- Fresno State at Boise State, Friday Broncos try to finish off their second perfect season in three years.
- Auburn at Alabama No better way for the Tigers to salvage their season than to upend their hated rival, which also happens to be the nation's top-ranked team.
- Florida at Florida State The Seminoles are no pushover ... but the Gators know well enough not to be looking ahead to the SEC championship game.
- Oklahoma at Oklahoma State This is the toughest remaining assignment for any team still in the national title hunt.
- Notre Dame at USC Seriously, doesn't this look like one of the most one-sided matchups of the season, considering all that surrounds the game?
- Syracuse at Cincinnati Be careful of flying oranges at this one.
- Oregon at Oregon State Beavers can earn their way to Pasadena.
- Maryland at Boston College ACC Atlantic Division rides on this one (see above).
- Virginia at Virginia Tech ACC Coastal Division rides on this one (see above).

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