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Sooners, Gators gain ground but have work left

by Pete Fiutak

For more previews, predictions and prognostications, go to CollegeFootballNews.com.

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Updated: November 26, 2008, 11:30 AM EST
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And now things get interesting. Very, very interesting.

In the big news of the BCS day, Texas moved up to No. 2 and Oklahoma to No. 3 from No. 5. That means that this upcoming weekend should be all about style points as Texas needs to impress the humans to stay ahead of OU, because it's the computers which currently like the Longhorns. More on this in a moment.

Texas Tech excused itself from the national title chase, moving all the way down to seventh, while Penn State didn't budge off the No. 8 spot despite blowing away Michigan State. More on this in a moment, as well.

USC is in range at No. 5, but it's all about the Big 12 and the SEC at the moment. If the champions of the two conferences, including Alabama, finish with one loss, they're playing each other for the national title with USC, Utah, and everyone else on the outside looking in.

Utah is going to the BCS, which is what everyone knew after the win over BYU, but now it's confirmed at the No. 6 spot. Boise State is at No. 9, and isn't likely to move any higher unless there are some monumental upsets, while an unbeaten Ball State is the fourth non-BCS team in the rankings, coming in at 15th, one spot behind TCU.

Basically, here's what you need to know ...

1. If there aren't any upsets this upcoming weekend, the SEC champion will be playing for the national championship. The big question mark is Missouri. If the Tigers win the Big 12 Championship, will the BCS put in a one-loss Oklahoma or Texas (whichever one is left out) over USC? That will be the big fight unless the Tigers lose, and then Oklahoma or Texas (whichever one gets into the Big 12 title game) will play the SEC champion.

Likely out of the BCS race, Penn State will have to settle for a trip to the Rose Bowl. (Carolyn Kaster / Associated Press)

2. Utah can continue to have a major complaint. On merit, USC has no case for being ranked ahead of the Utes. The computers realize this, but the humans don't. The Utes have a better computer ranking than USC: they beat Oregon State, USC lost to Oregon State, and the Mountain West went 6-1 versus the Pac 10. However, even after a blowout win over a good BYU, USC is No. 5 and Utah No. 6.

3. Work with me here. Penn State is firmly stuck on the No. 8 spot. However, forgetting about what happens in the SEC, if Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma, which isn't all that far-fetched, then the Big 12 South goes to a two-team tie-breaker and Texas Tech, if it beats Baylor, would face Missouri. If the Red Raiders beat the Tigers, would the voters still want them in the national title game over Texas and Penn State after what happened this last week in Norman? No way. Also, if that happens, then Texas wouldn't have won its division, much less its conference, so to put the Longhorns in would mean a 2001 Nebraska scenario which the college football public and voters have been loathe to repeat.

If Oregon State beats Oregon, then it wins the No. 1 spot in the Pac 10, and while USC would claim a share of the title with a win over UCLA, would the voters still want USC in over Penn State? The computers wouldn't. Therefore, all it'll take is for two reasonable things to happen (Oklahoma State over OU and Oregon State at home over Oregon) and then Penn State would have a case, unless the voters really did go bold and decided to go with Utah. In other words, while there's too much traffic ahead for Penn State to get to the national title, the debating and politicking might not be over.

4.It's over. Utah will get the automatic BCS slot. As it looks now, the SEC and Big 12 will each get two teams in, Utah and Penn State have automatic berths, and the ACC and Big East champions will get automatic spots. That means there are two spots available, and it comes down to the Civil War. If Oregon State beats Oregon, assuming USC beats Notre Dame and UCLA, the Pac-10 will get two teams in with the Beavers going to the Rose Bowl. If Oregon beats Oregon State, then Ohio State will likely get the final BCS spot.

Don't forget that the BCS takes the entire season into account, so there will be wild changes from the computers at the end, but the two human polls will be the biggest factors.

The Big Winners: Oklahoma (moved from No. 5 to No. 3), USC (6 to 5), Oregon State (21 to 17)

The Big Losers: Penn State (didn't move from 8), Texas Tech (2 to 7), Utah (didn't jump over USC after big win)

1. Alabama, Score: 0.9872

Alabama moved up even more as it's now No. 1 by both the humans and the computers after being No. 2 by the computers last week behind Texas Tech. Obviously, 'Bama is playing for the national title by beating Auburn and Florida, and with the Gators getting so much respect, the Tide could still play for it all even if it loses to Auburn and wins the SEC title game.

Last Week: No. 1 Predicted wins: Auburn Predicted losses: SEC championship (Florida) Predicted record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest test: SEC championship vs. Florida

2. Texas, Score: 0.9209

Texas has the computers to thank for the No. 2 spot, because both human polls have Mack Brown's club at No. 4. A blowout win over Texas A&M is a must, or else Oklahoma, if it beats Oklahoma State, will start to get more respect from the computers and won't get any less from the humans. All UT wants is a chance for a repeat battle against Missouri, and for one week, it's still in the mix.

Last Week: No. 3 Predicted wins: Texas A&M Predicted losses: none Predicted record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Sugar Bowl Toughest test: Texas A&M

3. Oklahoma, Score: 0.9125

Oklahoma did what it had to do to get in a position to play for the Big 12 and national title by blowing away Texas Tech. Now there's just one more hurdle to overcome to get into the No. 2 spot and have a chance to play Missouri. The humans are on board, with the coaches poll putting the Sooners at No. 2 while the Harris Poll has them at 3. Oklahoma State, ranked 12th in the BCS, is a great team, and if OU does next week what it did to Texas Tech, it'll be in the Big 12 title game without a question.

Last Week: No. 5 Predicted wins: at Oklahoma State, Big 12 championship (Missouri) Predicted losses: None Predicted record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: BCS championship Toughest test: at Oklahoma State

4. Florida, Score: 0.8755

Talk about focused, to a man, Florida said it was going to be business as usual against Citadel. 70 points and over 700 yards later, the team made its statement that it's not planning on letting down any time soon. The computers are still less than thrilled, partly because the SEC stinks and partly because of the loss to Ole Miss, but the humans are on board with the Harris Poll ranking the Gators No. 2 and the coaches poll putting them third. All that matters is winning the last two games. With wins over Florida State and Alabama, Florida will be playing for the national title.

The Gators, No. 4 in the latest BCS ranking, picked up style points by not letting up in a rout of The Citadel. (Phil Sandlin / Associated Press)

Last Week: No. 4 Predicted wins: at Florida State, SEC championship (Alabama) Predicted losses: None Predicted record: 12-1 Predicted bowl: BCS championship Toughest test: SEC championship vs. Alabama

5. USC, Score: 0.7974

The Trojans probably won't earn the Pac-10's No. 1 spot, and the computers have them eighth overall, with four of the six ranking them eighth or lower, yet the humans are falling for the blowout wins over bad teams. Ranked fifth in both polls, the humans are keeping USC alive in the national title hunt. The dream is for Missouri to win the Big 12 championship game after getting a little more help from somewhere to get within range. If USC isn't in the top four after next weekend, it's not going to happen.

Last Week: No. 6 Predicted wins: Notre Dame, at UCLA Predicted losses: None Predicted record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl Toughest test: at UCLA

6. Utah, Score: 0.7858

No. 5 in the computer polls but seventh in the coaches and eighth in the Harris, Utah is too far out of range to have any honest dreams of playing for the national title. On the plus side, this is the only two-time BCS buster and it'll be a lock to go somewhere, which above all else, means a ton of extra cash compared to the Las Vegas Bowl.

Last Week: No. 7 Regular season record: 12-0 Predicted bowl: Fiesta Bowl

7. Texas Tech, Score: 0.7789

And there goes that ... maybe. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and Texas Tech beats Baylor, then it'll be the Red Raiders playing Missouri for the Big 12 title. If they win the conference championship, would Texas get into the national title? Not a chance. The computers still love the Red Raiders, and the humans would either have to follow, or face the Utah vs. USC debate as to which one should be sent to Miami.

Last Week: No. 2 Predicted wins: Baylor Predicted losses: None Predicted record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Gator Bowl Toughest test: Baylor

8. Penn State, Score: 0.7520

While Penn State would have a big argument to be in the national title game if Missouri wins the Big 12 title, it's not going to happen. Enjoy Pasadena. Either it'll be a rematch against Oregon State, even though the Nittany Lions won 45-14 in Happy Valley earlier this year, or it'll be a tremendous battle against USC.

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Nobody's got more offseason college football coverage than the guys at CFN. Get the latest college football news, features and much more at Collegefootballnews.com.

Last Week: No. 8 Regular season record: 11-1 Predicted bowl: Rose Bowl

9. Boise State, Score: 0.6581

Boise State survived a late run by Nevada and just needs to get by an underachieving, mediocre Fresno State to be unbeaten. But it'll get left out of the BCS hunt thanks to Utah's great year. Barring a huge upset, the Broncos will have to settle for the No. 9 ranking while watching a few teams with far, far lower rankings get in.

Last Week: No. 9 Predicted wins: Fresno State Predicted losses: None Predicted record: 12-0 Predicted bowl: Roady's Humanitarian Bowl Toughest test: Fresno State

10. Ohio State, Score: 0.6210

Ohio State will get out the Nikes along with the yellow and green pom-poms as it roots for Oregon to upset Oregon State in Corvallis. If the Ducks win, the Buckeyes will be all but certain to get the tenth BCS slot, but if the Beavers win, then it'll be off to Florida for a New Year's Day game against (cue ominous music) the SEC.

Last Week: No. 11 Regular season record: 10-2 Predicted bowl: Capital One Bowl

In Range ... 11. Georgia, Score: 0.6020 12. Oklahoma State, Score: 0.5705 13. Missouri, Score: 0.5589 14. TCU, Score: 0.4702 15. Ball State, Score: 0.4379

BCS Standings
RkTeamW-LHarrisCoachesCPU %BCS
RkPoints%RkPoints%PrevAvg
1Alabama11-012839.996111518.9954.97001.987
2Texas10-142577.904241370.8984.96003.921
3Oklahoma10-132598.911621412.9259.90005.912
4Florida10-122644.927731401.9187.78004.875
5USC9-152387.837551288.8446.71006.797
6Utah12-082113.741471153.7561.86007.786
7Texas Tech10-172118.743281073.7036.89002.779
8Penn State11-162187.767461157.7587.73008.752
9Boise State11-091901.667091033.6774.63009.658
10Ohio State10-2101827.641110994.6518.570010.621
11Georgia9-2131607.563913842.5521.690011.602
12Oklahoma State9-2121621.568812858.5626.580012.570
13Missouri9-2111622.569111896.5875.520013.559
14TCU10-2151268.444914695.4557.510016.470
15Ball State11-0141346.472315673.4413.400017.438
16Cincinnati9-2161101.386316572.3751.430019.397
17Oregon State8-317976.342517544.3567.240021.313
18Brigham Young10-218761.267019321.2105.310014.263
19Michigan State9-321517.181421296.1941.260015.212
20Florida State8-323401.140724204.1338.29000.188
21Boston College8-320537.188422290.1902.18000.186
22Georgia Tech8-322415.145623241.1580.24000.181
23Oregon8-319584.204918397.2603.000024.155
24Northwestern9-324330.115820310.2033.02000.113
25Pittsburgh7-325130.04562643.0282.050020.041

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