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Computers defy logic in boosting Sooners
by Don Borst, Special to FOXSports.com
Granted, the BCS computers still have another week to go in the 2008 season, and this time it's "only" the Big 12 championship game that the computers have punched Oklahoma's ticket for. But because of that opportunity Saturday in Kansas City, the Sooners have effectively aced out a team that beat them for first rights to play for the national championship.
We'll presume that national championship game will be against the champion of the SEC, but you never know. There's always the chance between now and then that the BCS computers will whirr and click and offer up some data that will deem Oklahoma's second string the No. 2 team in the country and turn it into an intrasquad game.
The humans, meantime, got it right: In a very close vote, the voters in the Coaches and Harris polls favored Texas over Oklahoma (the coaches gave OU a one-point edge, while Harris voters gave UT a six-point edge) — almost certainly owing to the fact that the Longhorns beat the Sooners on a neutral field this season, 45-35.
It stands to reason that when teams finish in a tie, the team that beat the other should receive at least some kind of benefit for that accomplishment. But "reason" isn't something the BCS computers are capable of.
Instead, Texas gets a message from the computers like, "you should have run up the score more on more opponents," or something.
I recognize that reasonable people can differ on this subject, but the computers did something very unreasonable. What's REALLY disturbing is the way Oklahoma leapfrogged Alabama along the way; it's as if the computers realized that to get their beloved Sooners into the Big 12 title game, they had to push OU past the 12-0 Crimson Tide, too.
So, Alabama finished off the season in absolutely perfect form, and both human polls are voting the Tide No. 1 by a wider margin than at any time since they took over the No. 1 spot Nov. 1.
Nick Saban's team charges into the SEC championship game with the kind of momentum that has even Florida followers double-checking their previously overexuberant optimism: The Crimson Tide, everyone finally realizes, are for real, which is why they're the only one of the 66 BCS programs to finish the regular season with a perfect 12-0 record.
This isn't to say that the Tide will beat Florida, or win the national championship. They might, but they still have to prove it. But by no reasonable measure should they be moved down after scoring a ridiculously impressive 36-0 victory in the Iron Bowl.
Yet, they're moved down by the computers, not just behind the mighty can-do-no-wrong Sooners, but behind Texas as well. Alabama No. 3? Because they went 12-0 and beat Auburn by 36 points?
What the what?
That's how ridiculous this has become.
The Bowl Championship Series — a misnomer to begin with — has found another way to undermine the very sport that gives it life.
Five years ago, the computers loved Bob Stoops and the Sooners even after OU was blown out of the Big 12 championship game by Kansas State, 35-7, on Dec. 6.
A day later, the humans moved the Sooners down to No. 3 — still a high placement for their laudable season of work. USC and LSU were No. 1 and No. 2 according to the humans. Somehow, the computers pretended the Big 12 championship game did not even happen, leaving Oklahoma ahead of both LSU and USC, by enough of a margin that they remained ahead of both of those teams in the overall BCS rankings.
That kept Oklahoma in the national championship game, where they lost to LSU (which had edged USC in the BCS rankings by the narrowest of margins). That prompted AP Top 25 voters to eventually award USC the No. 1 ranking, which is our most recent split national championship.
Of course, we can blame the Big 12 for selecting such a lousy way to break their own tie. There are many better ways to break ties than to hand that responsibility over to a Big Brother system that is not really accountable to anything or anyone.
Why did you decide this, computer? Because you break the games down to a series of numbers that have nothing to do with winning or losing on the field.
Back in the bad old days, when the bowls first got together to work out special rankings to place teams in the biggest of bowls, teams received special credit for having the fewest number of losses. After a couple of years, however, it was determined that teams were already being penalized for losses by voters and computers. So the BCS formula was tweaked.
And the "strength of schedule" component was scrapped because it's already built in to the computer models. So the BCS formula was tweaked.
And then there were the humans (namely, The Associated Press) who said, "Wait a minute ... this is just plain, dumb ... we're out!" So the BCS formula was tweaked.
So, we'll expect to see a little more tweaking after this season. Head-to-head contests should be considered significant. Conference champions should be considered significant.
In the meantime, the BCS got it wrong again.
Weekend of the supermodels
Bowl season roundup
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Bowl recaps and analysis:
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EagleBank: Wake 29, Navy 19 | CFN
New Mexico: Colo. St. 40, Fresno St. 35
St. Petersburg: S. Florida 41, Memphis 14
Las Vegas: Arizona 31, BYU 21 | CFN
New Orleans: SMU 30, Troy 27 (OT) | CFN
Poinsettia: TCU 17, Boise St. 16 | CFN
Hawaii: Notre Dame 49, Hawaii 21 | CFN
Motor City: FAU 24, Cen. Mich. 21 | CFN
Meineke: W. Virginia 31, UNC 30 | CFN
Champs Sports: Fla. St. 42, Wis. 13 | CFN
Emerald: Cal 24, Miami 17 | CFN
Independence: La. Tech 17, NIU 10 | CFN
Papajohns.com: Rutgers 29, N.C. St. 23
Alamo: Mizzou 30, N'west. 23 (OT) | CFN
Humanitarian: Maryland 42, Nevada 35
Texas: Rice 38, W. Michigan 14
Holiday: Oregon 42, Oklahoma St. 31 | CFN
Armed Forces: Houston 34, Air Force 28
Sun: Oregon St. 3, Pittsburgh 0 | CFN
Music City: Vandy 16, BC 14 | CFN
Insight: Kansas 42, Minnesota 21
Chick-fil-A: LSU 38, Georgia Tech 3
Outback: Iowa 31, South Carolina 10 | CFN
Capital One: Georgia 24, MSU 12 | CFN
Gator: Nebraska 26, Clemson 21
Rose: USC 38, Penn St. 24 | Analysis
Orange: Va. Tech 20, Cincinnati 7
Cotton: Ole Miss 47, Texas Tech 34
Liberty: Kentucky 25, East Carolina 19
Sugar: Utah 31, Alabama 17
International: UConn 38, Buffalo 20
Fiesta: Texas 24, Ohio St. 21 | Analysis
GMAC: Tulsa 45, Ball St. 13
BCS title: Florida 24, Oklahoma 14
Photo gallery:
Shopping:
While the BCS and the impending bowl matchups command so much attention, conference championships are the truest goals for college football programs — something players can actually win on the field.
And while in some ways, this was a weekend of style points, it was really more a weekend of quality teams putting their best foot forward and letting everything else take care of itself.
Alabama, Texas, Florida, Oklahoma and Southern California were like supermodels working the runway, showing their splendid style, poise and glamour, making us wish all the more that there were a playoff system.
But there isn't. And sometimes we stop to realize that if there were a playoff, many of the unbelievable weekends in September, October, and even November would lose much of their drama ... so we'll take it as it is.
And so this weekend, we watched Virginia Tech and Boston College step up to the task of winning tough, fourth-quarter conference games to earn their division championships and reach Saturday's ACC championship game in Tampa.
And there was Cincinnati showing it could take care of business (by beating Syracuse) even when it didn't have to in order to win the Big East championship.
And certainly, we watched the Crimson Tide and Gators use their archrivals as mere sparring dummies as they tuned up for their epic SEC championship contest Saturday in Atlanta.
And there was Texas playing almost perfect football, and Oklahoma playing winning football, as they earned a share of their division title and tried to impress the pollsters enough to let them play for the Big 12 championship.
And then there was Oregon State showing that it not only couldn't stand the heat, it probably had no business being in the kitchen. As a result, it's likely USC will win the Pac-10 championship for a record seventh consecutive time, and if the Trojans beat UCLA on Saturday, they won't have to share their crown with Oregon and Oregon State.
BCS participants almost set
Unless Missouri and/or UCLA score monster upsets next week, the participants for the biggest bowls are pretty well set.
Rose Bowl: Penn State vs. USC.
A Trojans loss to UCLA, would create a three-way tie with the Oregon schools ... and the Pac-10's next tiebreaking factor is how the teams fared against fourth-place Cal. Believe it or not, that would mean (since Oregon lost to Cal, the Ducks would be dropped from the multiple-team tie), the Beavers would get the nod over USC. Yes, that means there's still a chance that Penn State could face an 8-4 team on New Year's Day that, a) the Nittany Lions beat earlier this season, 45-14, and, b) gave up 65 points in its last game. Granted, not much of a chance. But a chance.
Fiesta Bowl: Texas vs. Utah or Ohio State.
Undefeated Utah makes the most sense, but Ohio State can probably ensure a lot more TVs will be tuned in.
Sugar Bowl: Alabama-Florida loser (there's really nobody else) vs. Utah or Ohio State (whichever one the Fiesta Bowl doesn't pick).
Orange Bowl: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech or Boston College.
BCS Championship Game: Alabama-Florida winner vs. Oklahoma or Texas.
Now, stay with us here: Obviously, if Oklahoma wins the Big 12 title game, the Sooners will play for a national championship. But if Missouri wins the Big 12 title game, then whichever team that does not get to the Big 12 title game — meaning Texas — would probably advance to the national championship game.
No room at the inn
Not that it will make good on it, but here's the opportunity for the BCS to show legitimacy in offering real opportunities to teams from outside the six "power conferences." According to BCS rules, which were established to keep Congress and potential monopoly lawsuits at bay, a team from outside the power conferences is guaranteed a spot by reaching the Top 12 in the BCS standings. However, those same rules state that only one team that met that standard would be guaranteed a BCS berth, and any additional teams would be merely "eligible" for selection.
So here we have sixth-ranked Utah (12-0) ready to play in either the Fiesta or Sugar Bowl, and ninth-ranked Boise State (12-0) very likely staying home to play in its own stadium in the Humanitarian Bowl ... as the BCS bowls instead invite two-loss Ohio State. It's allowed by the rules, but that doesn't make it right, and it certainly doesn't make for the most intriguing matchups.
There was some talk about the Fiesta Bowl choosing Boise State over Ohio State to set up a Boise-Utah matchup, but there are way too many reasons that won't happen (mostly the number of TV sets in Big Ten country). Besides, despite the rich payouts, such a showdown between the undefeated teams from mountain states would be counterproductive and even insulting — akin to making them sit at the kids' table at Thanksgiving, rather than giving them a chance against a prestigious opponent with much to gain.
A much better idea, but what won't happen, would be for the Fiesta to pair Utah with a Big 12 team, and the Sugar to pair Boise State with an SEC team. The real problem is Cincinnati: The Big East champion Bearcats are an even less attractive bowl team than the two undefeated Top 10 teams, but Cincy is guaranteed a spot and so the BCS reasonably cannot afford to be dragged down by two additional small-market teams.
Victory hurts Pac-10 in the wallet
By beating Oregon State, 65-38, Oregon cost itself and every other team in the Pac-10 about $400,000 for their athletic budgets. That's a preposterous little conflict that still needs to be remedied by the powers that be of the major conferences.
It also means that, instead of enjoying all the riches and fanfare of Pasadena, the Beavers instead will spend the holidays in El Paso (to face somebody like Pittsburgh), while the Ducks get to go to San Diego for a great Holiday Bowl matchup with somebody like Oklahoma State. Unless Oregon State still makes it to the Rose Bowl, that is (see above). What the heck, the Tony Lama boots are nice.
About those SEC defenses ...
We've heard just about enough about the marvelous defense being played in the Southeastern Conference these days, as SEC purists try go attack the Big 12 as soft football. But not everybody in the SEC is playing like Alabama and Florida. In fact, nobody else is.
Georgia gave up at least 38 points in four of its last five games. LSU gave up 31 points in each of its last three, and had two other games when it caved for more than 50. Arkansas and Mississippi State are also worse than the national average.
It's an offensive year in college football, and the definition of elite is a team able to play at least good defense along with scoring big points. Yes, the SEC defenses are overall better statistically than those in the Big 12, but the Big 12 offenses are in another stratosphere.
Gonna be an interesting BCS title game, ain't it?
General observations
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| Oklahoma State lost to Oklahoma, but QB Zac Robinson improved his stock with three TDs. (Brody Schmidt / Associated Press) |
Blinded by the Golden Dome?
Hmmmmm... at Notre Dame:
Let's all sing the old Sesame Street song together, shall we?
"One of these things is not like the other, one of these things just isn't the same ..."
Simply put: If Notre Dame doesn't fire Weis, it means that it held Tyrone Willingham to a different standard than any coach before or after him. African-American football players, then, should be aware that the university treats its football coaches based not on the quality of their character or on their winning percentage, but by some other standard that we can't quite figure out ... unless we open our eyes.
Notre Dame cannot afford NOT to replace His Brilliance.
Notre Dame likes to think of itself as a national leader in athletics, and that seems to fit just fine in a sport that now employs only two African-American head coaches in the 119 major-college positions.
This Week's Big Games
MAC championship game (Detroit, Friday) — Undefeated Ball State is a prohibitive favorite over 7-5 Buffalo, the only team in the Eastern Division that had a winning record.
Army vs. Navy (Philadelphia) — The Middies have won six in a row in the series, by an average of four touchdowns.
ACC championship game (Tampa) — Rematch of Boston College's hard-fought 28-23 decision over visiting Virginia Tech in mid-October. Winner goes to the Orange Bowl.
USC at UCLA — No chance the woeful Bruins will catch the Trojans sleeping after that shocking upset in 2006.
Arizona at Arizona State — Suddenly the Sun Devils have won three in a row, and the Wildcats have lost two in a row; but it's ASU that needs to win to become bowl eligible.
Big 12 championship game (Kansas City) — Don't put it past Missouri to score an upset despite a dismal defensive showing against Kansas.
SEC championship game (Atlanta) — The biggest showdown ever in any conference championship game, with both the Tide and the Gators vying for a spot in national title tilt.
Member Comments
You OU fans are cracking me up!!! It's like you have to prove yourselves everytime you post? If the roles were reversed, most of you would be crying and whining and belly aching how Mack spoke up for UT and got the bid to the Big 12 championship game. oh well. What's done is done. And Boomsooner78, good call, leave out Mizzou and put in UT or TT since that's where the real race is. BTW - look up in the skies today before the game for another banner. Just a reminder of that one loss ;) Anyways, good luck in your game today.<br />Hook 'Em!
LonghornNeil12/6/2008 11:46:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Hey Borst, eat s. h. i. t. and die.
stoopslovechild12/5/2008 13:14:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
I guess if TX could have held on to the lead they took over TT they wouldn't be crying right now! Also had the Sooners stepped up the D when Reynolds went out at the RR shootout we wouldn't be in the mist of this crap and had TT not got pounded on by OU they could be the champs. Living in the past gets us no where and crying makes the Big 12 look redicolous. I still think if we just left out Mizzwho? in the north and drew names form a hat out of the 3 south teams it would be more fun! As far as SEC champ ROLL TIDE ROLL, I think they are fighters and Florida is in for a good game. I am ready for tomorrow so I can watch Mizzwho? go down. Maybe Chase Daniel and his coach could stay on the field like good sports this year. We all lost one and a computer decided for us so no fault just f'd up! BOOMER SOONER BABY!
boomersooner7812/5/2008 9:43:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Hey Texas fans, is that your best shot. Having sports writers who half the time have no clue about what they're talkin' about anyway. I'm glad everyone thinks that the pathetic University of Texas shoulbe have gone because it shows how much Mack Browns whining and facebooks and airplanes are well, like the Longhorns, PATHETIC CRYBABIES. You knew the rules, ESPN knew the rules, everyone who has your back knew the rules, but it just goes to show how you won the hearts of the nation. But you will still be watchin' the Big XII Championship from your TV again. You probably still have chips and dip left over from last years and the year before, have fun. And your boy McCoy will win the heisman, sympathy prize, not for getting left out of the NC but because he has down syndrome. Mack Brown is really got a swell group down there, I know I want my kids playing for a coach who whines more than a wounded Longhorn. Lest we forget 45-35 yeah, we'll forget. Remeber this Texas 33-Tech 39 Oh yeah, it happened. Later, and don't forget to cry about the Heisman too, you guys are great see ya next year in the Cotton bowl, until the cry me a Red River.<br /><br /><br /><br />Texas
Scooby_Joo12/5/2008 9:02:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
Poor ou, I feel sorry for the computer champs. Good luck in your remaining two games. They are played on the field not on a message board.
Choate12/5/2008 6:11:00 AM(Report inappropriate content)
funny how the 2 teams in BIG12CG, MIZZU & BLOW U, both beat by TX 12CG
utmaxer12/4/2008 21:39:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Reality - I could not agree more. Tell me how many teams in the PAC12 are in the top 25. So I beat 10 other teams that SUCK and I am supposed to be in the top 4 in the country. USC proved their worth when they lost to a mediocre (at best) OSU team.
nonstop9x9x12/4/2008 20:14:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
droflo,<br /><br />Why is USC not in the big game? Because their schedule sucked and they got punked by an average OSU squad, that would be why.<br /><br />Overrated and USC go together like crackheads and LA. You never see one without the other
Reality_Check_4U12/4/2008 20:06:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
So, okay, TX beats OU at a NEUTRAL field in Texas??? Okay, and TX beats OSU by 4 and loses to TTech all game while OU beats OSU by 20 and KILLS TTECH. Okay, and how do I NOT make OU the winner??? I guess some peoples math just isn't the same as I grew up with. I only wish it was OU/TX in the Championship and we could shut everyone up - including the commentators on ESPN, CBS and ABC.
nonstop9x9x12/4/2008 20:01:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
sterk6, get out of your trailer you piece of trash. Tech isnt in the argument because of their BCS standings MORON. It was down to OU vs Texas who were within thousandths of points in the BCS. So should head to head matter. Of course you need an IQ higher than dog crap something you dont have. Sorry I can translate in to moron for you, DUH TEXAS SUCKS DUHHH OKLAHOMA DUUUHHHH. <br /><br />sterk6, reasons why inbreeding is wrong.
HOOKEMHORNS198412/4/2008 19:40:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
stork6... you need to read all my entries... I already stated if OSU had beaten OU then a deserving team in Technical would be going to the Big 12 dance. Who's the idiot? Your mirror will reveal the truth. Hope to see you in Dallas on October 9, 2009. Go Tigers!!
EYEWIT12/4/2008 19:20:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
stork6.... read all my entries you dip. I already said it's a 3 way tie and that if OSU beat OU a real deserving team in Tech would be going to the Big 12 dance. Who's the idiot? Your mirror will reveal the truth. I hope to see you in Dallas on Oct. 9, 2009. Go Tigers!!!
EYEWIT12/4/2008 19:06:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Jeff Martin's article on this subject is much more factual and relevant and much less emotional. While considering the relevance of an early or mid season win in a head-to-head when teams are yet to reach their end of season form, remember also that a major reason the Big 12 would look to a BCS rating-based tie-breaker in the event of a 3-way tie is to place the best and strongest team in a position to win a national championship (a coup for the Big 12). Consider that if OSU had beaten OU, Texas Tech and not Texas would have the game with MU. OU's rout of Texas Tech (and their 7 point win over Baylor) not only ended their national championship chances (whether or not they could beat MU), it was a reflection on Texas' strength, as also was their defeating OSU by 20 points, a team Texas squeaked past by a mere 4 points. The Big 12 got it right; the BCS got it right; and Jeff (Schedule Matters) Martin got it right!
tbmcd12/4/2008 17:40:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
All you Longhorn idiots need to realize that Texas is in a 3-way tie. This is not just a tie between OU and Texas. Texas Tech has the same number of losses as OU and Texas. OU's win over Tech does not delete Texas' loss to Tech. If it was a 2-way tie then Texas would be in the Big 12 game. Don't hate OU because you hate the system. Every Big 12 coach,<br />including "crybaby Mack agreed to these rules. Now it doesn't work in your favor so you want to change the rules. All 3 teams have a legitimate case to be in the game. They all have one loss and that loss came at the expense of the teams that they are tied with. The rules are the rules. Is OU suppose to turn down the Championship game because they lost to Texas? Losing on the road or a neutral field are not part of the tie breaker process. Maybe they should be, but they are not. There is no way to have a perfect 3-way tie breaker. Deal with it. OU beat OSU on the road by 20 points. Texas beat OSU at home by 5 points. Texas Tech beat OSU by 30 points. How can you Texas fans act like it is clear-cut that Texas should be in the Championship game. Why aren't people outraged that a 3-loss Missouri team has an opportunity to be called Big 12 Champs? Funny how everyone in the nation thinks that the seldom used9never used in Big 12 play), 3-way tie breaker needs to be fixed, but the fact that a team that would be 4th in the south division has a chance to win the hole conference. I think it would be great if OU(11-1) & Texas(11-1) rematched in the Big 12 game, but what about Texas Tech(11-1). People need to look at the whole story and not just the one that ESPN and the Fox reporters want you to hear. If you believe that OU's win over Tech, eliminated them from consideration, you have to believe that they at least have an argument for being in the game. Stop following like a bunch of sheep and look at the entire body of work by all 3 teams.
sterk612/4/2008 17:20:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Can I get some Trojan love...our one loss is not as bad as Florida's one loss, but still we get snubbed. After all; LSU, Georgia, and Florida State looked so good this year didn't they??? <br /><br />SEC bias and overrated Big 12 makes a great team look just good. I guess we will have to wait till the NFL draft next year to see which team truly has the best talent again!!! And I repeat...again!!!! <br /><br />Let me remind the BCS something...no market is bigger than the LA market (especially with the lack of an NFL team), so why you keep the Trojans out of the big one each year???
12/4/2008 15:47:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Just kidding about wanting OU to lose to OSU out of spite but said it to make a point a valid point. I would not trade how things have gone since we have a chance to win it all which does not come that often. Typical OU fan would rather have won in Dallas and then we are not wasting our time on here. Now that OU's running game is on fire I cannot wait to play an SEC team.
Ross_McElroy12/4/2008 15:18:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Ross:<br /><br />Where did you go?<br /><br />I meant SPANK your kid - not your monkey.
FORTY5_THIRTY512/4/2008 14:52:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
Buzz... you may want to get a new circle of "experts." Your gettin' some bad advice about raising children. Quick... before you have another.
EYEWIT12/4/2008 14:41:00 PM(Report inappropriate content)
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