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Big 12 championship Fearless Prediction
Missouri (9-3) vs. Oklahoma (11-1)
What's the point?
Whether or not you agree with Oklahoma getting the nod in the Big 12 South debate over Texas and Texas Tech, when all the smoke clears and the weeping and gnashing of teeth ceases, the system might have really put the best team of the three into the drivers' seat for a BCS championship spot.
The big day
Florida-Alabama. Oklahoma-Mizzou. The SEC and Big 12 title games will decide the BCS title picture. Get everything you need for Saturday's big games right here:
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After all, the Sooners are putting on a weekly show never seen before in college football at this high a level. They put up 62 points against Nebraska, 66 against Texas A&M, 65 against Texas Tech and 61 against Oklahoma State. More than anything else, they're making it look so ridiculously easy.
So the defense couldn't stop the Cowboys' offense last week for a long stretch. Sam Bradford and company rolled for touchdown after touchdown after touchdown on six straight possessions, and Oklahoma State couldn't keep up the pace. No one could.
A case could be made that OU has the best offensive line in the country, or at least it's in the top three along with Alabama's and Penn State's. Sooners QB Sam Bradford is frighteningly precise game-in-and-game-out, the running game has speed and talent to burn and the receiving corps is explosive and dependable. Because of this attack, OU would likely be considered the Vegas favorite against either Florida or Alabama in the national title game.
Meanwhile, Missouri, which saw its national-title dream go up in a puff of smoke, or more like a Curtis Lofton big play, in last year's 38-17 Big 12 title-game loss to Oklahoma, can't stop anyone's passing game, and is coming off a loss to a mediocre Kansas team. The best win this year was over a Nebraska team that hadn't quite hit its stride, the second-best win was against an Illinois team that's not going bowling, and against the two big boys on the schedule from the South, Oklahoma State and Texas, the Tigers lost in back-to-back weeks.
So really, what's the point?
The same thing could've been asked in 2003, when it was a foregone conclusion that Oklahoma was going to wipe the mat with an above-average Kansas State team on the way to the national title. Instead, Darren Sproles and the Wildcats blasted OU 35-7, and then the Sooners went off to play in the national championship.
Who gave Texas A&M any sort of a shot against Kansas State in the 1998 Big 12 championship game? Outside of James Brown, did anyone really think Texas could beat Nebraska in the 1996 title game? Who foresaw Chris Simms throwing a slew of pick-sixes in the 2001 championship loss to Colorado when all Texas had to do was win to go play for the national title? Unlike the SEC title game, which has almost always gone according to the chalk, the Big 12 title game has thrown the world a few curveballs. Missouri has the offense to give Texas its big break in the national championship chase.
Last year, Missouri had everything to lose and was a bit green when it came to the pressure of the big-time spotlight. Oklahoma was able to come into the game loose, Chase Daniel was tight, and the blowout kicked in early on. This season, no one's picking Mizzou, even though it has the nation's fourth-best scoring offense and is averaging more than 500 yards per game, and everyone's going to tune in expecting to see the Oklahoma 60-plus-point show. However, Missouri has talent on both sides of the ball, and it has the weapons to keep up a pace Oklahoma State couldn't last week.
National Rankings
There's also the history factor when it comes to the Sooners. They've won the final three games in a season only once since 1990, and while the offense is fantastic, the defense is battered and bruised and the special teams are spotty. Missouri has the right makeup and enough experience to be right in this to the end.
However, to pull this off, the Tigers have to get creative with their secondary. It takes something special to have the worst pass defense in the Big 12 this season, but Mizzou has managed to do it, giving up 277 yards per game, and that's without seeing Texas Tech or Oklahoma. Granted, most teams have put up the big yards trying to come back against the high-powered Tigers offense, but as last week's loss to Kansas showed, there really are major problems with the secondary.
If Missouri doesn't come up with one of its best defensive games of the year, this could be the coronation game for Bradford on the way to the Heisman. He had one of his more pedestrian games last year against Missouri, throwing for 209 yards and two touchdowns as he was still recovering a bit from being knocked out a few weeks earlier in the Texas Tech loss. It was Daniel who had to deal with the spotlight, and he ended up going without a touchdown toss for the first time all year in the loss. This year, Bradford's the front-runner for the prize while Daniel got knocked out of the running several weeks ago, and again, the pressure is flip-flopped from last year. Not that Bradford has been the slightest bit fazed when things have been tight.
It's the official end of the Big 12 campaign after the conference, more specifically the South, saved the college football season. One way or another, it'll be a show with lots of offense and plenty of big plays. It'll be fun no matter what happens. With these two offenses, it has to be.
Players to watch: Give Bradford credit for coming up with another fantastic season, and for being able to put the ball in places where his receivers can come up with big yards after the catch, but part of the reason he's been so good is time. While he's decent on the move, in the quick-tempo OU attack, being able to find a rhythm is everything. Bradford doesn't need seven seconds to make something happen, but he's getting the time when he needs it behind an offensive line that's allowed a mere 11 sacks on the season.
The left side, tackle Phil Loadholt and guard Duke Robinson, gets the most attention, but senior center Jon Cooper is among the best in America while some scouts suggest that the right side, with guard Brandon Walker and tackle Trent Williams, might have more pro upside than the left.
One of the big keys for OU will be to keep Stryker Sulak from blasting away on Bradford. The senior has been one of the nation's best pass rushers this season with 8.5 sacks to go along with 48 tackles. He came up with two sacks against Kansas last week and will have to be a constant force in the backfield for the Tigers defense to have any prayer of slowing down the Big Red Machine.
Offensively for Mizzou, Jeremy Maclin has to come up with a special game as a receiver and a kickoff returner. The OU kick-coverage team has been awful, while Maclin is averaging more than 25 yards per attempt. He's way overdue for a touchdown on a return after going without one since the opening-day win over Illinois. As a receiver, he has gone over the 100-yard mark in four of the past five games, and five of the past seven with 88 catches on the season for 1,175 yards and 11 touchdowns. He'll also be used more as a runner.
Missouri will win if ... Mike Balogun struggles. Oklahoma LB Ryan Reynolds was on his way to a special year before getting knocked out for the season against Texas with a knee injury. Colt McCoy picked apart the Sooners across the middle when Reynolds left. In came Austin Box, who was just starting to come into his own before suffering a knee injury against Oklahoma State. OU has been a factory for middle linebackers, but if Balogun, a big-time junior-college transfer with speed and athleticism, has a rough game, Missouri has a great shot of getting the offense rolling. You can bet that the Missouri staff and Daniel have made a point of knowing where Balogun is at all times.
It'll also be important to come up with third-down stops. Time and again last week, Oklahoma State had a shot to get Bradford off the field, and time and again the defense failed. OU converted 12 of 18 chances against OSU to go along with two back-breaking fourth-down conversions. Coming up with third-down stops hasn't been Missouri's strong suit, allowing teams to convert 43 percent of their chances.
Oklahoma will win if ... Chase Daniel becomes a runner. The Missouri offense is at its best when Daniel is able to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers where they can do something with it. When Daniel becomes a runner, even when he's effective, the overall machine tends to sputter a bit. Last week against Kansas, Daniel ran for 103 yards. Missouri lost. His second-best rushing performance this year came against Oklahoma State. Missouri lost. Of course, Missouri has lost when Daniel didn't run, but for the most part, if OU can take away Maclin and Chase Coffman, while forcing Daniel to look for his second and third options before taking off, the Tigers offense will bog down.
OU also can't be afraid to bomb away. Bradford is a master of taking what defenses give him, and he's special when it comes to not giving the ball away, but against Missouri there will be several chances to push the ball down the field. It's all about tempo with the OU offense, and that's what Missouri's defense will try to disrupt. If Bradford is successful early with a few downfield throws to force the Tigers safeties to play deep, the yards after the catch will come in bunches once the OU attack gets in a groove.
What will happen: Missouri will play well, but not well enough. It'll be a continuous trade of big blow after big blow with the Tigers hanging around after three quarters, but Daniel will make a few key mistakes and Bradford won't. The Sooners will open it up late and Bradford will have his Heisman stats padded enough to answer Tim Tebow's big game earlier in the day against Alabama.
Line: Oklahoma -17
Fearless Prediction: Oklahoma 58 ... Missouri 38
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