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ACC Championship Fearless Prediction
Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. Boston College (9-3)
Maybe inviting those interlopers from the Big East into the ACC a few years back wasn't such a great idea after all. Over the last two years, not a single original member has played in the league championship game.
The big day
Florida-Alabama. Oklahoma-Mizzou. The SEC and Big 12 title games will decide the BCS title picture. Get everything you need for Saturday's big games right here:
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When the dust finally settled on an incredibly competitive ACC race this season, a couple of familiar faces, Boston College and Virginia Tech, were left standing from the Atlantic and Coastal Divisions, respectively. The schools squared off in last year's league title game, and will be meeting for the fourth time in the last two seasons. Playing in a conference that saw its divisions go to tiebreakers and not be decided until last weekend, both the Eagles and the Hokies have been in playoff mode for the past month.
At one time or another, 10 of the ACC's 12 members were in the hunt for a championship. North Carolina and Wake Forest were trendy. Maryland and Georgia Tech had their chances. Florida State and Miami were never far from the action. But Boston College and Virginia Tech? The Eagles and Hokies had every reason not to be in this position this year.
BC was attempting to move forward without its entire 2007 backfield, including Matt Ryan. Surely, head coach Jeff Jagodzinski would get exposed without his franchise quarterback and security blanket, right? Uh-uh. Instead, the Eagles rallied like a thoroughbred around the final turn, winning their last four games to zip past the rest of the field. Coach Jags' second team has no stars, relying on a blue-collar, turnover-happy defense and a couple of true freshmen to carry the running load. Oh, and when senior QB Chris Crane broke his collarbone two weeks ago, redshirt freshman Dominique Davis stepped in and kept the offense afloat.
Although it's a win away from another BCS bowl game, this has been anything but a vintage Tech team in Blacksburg. The Hokies lost the opener to East Carolina, were forced to scrap a plan to redshirt QB Tyrod Taylor, and lost three of four games down the stretch, including one to Boston College. Yet, they're back on the doorstep of a third ACC championship since joining the league in 2004. A ton of credit goes to Frank Beamer, defensive coordinator Bud Foster, and the rest of a staff that milked eight wins from an average collection of talent, and pushed the right buttons in a bunch of nail-biters. If Beamer and Co. can get this team, with the nation's 103rd-ranked offense, to the Orange Bowl, they ought to start building the statues outside the stadium on Sunday morning.
Five years ago, Boston College and Virginia Tech weren't even in the ACC. Today, they're the standards in their respective divisions. Had the league known then what it knows now, it might not have been so hospitable.
National Rankings
Players to watch: The most intriguing battle of the afternoon will be between the freshmen backs, Boston College's Montel Harris and Virginia Tech's Darren Evans. Each school's leading rusher, they've got to be successful if their team is to have any chance of keeping drives going. Harris will be running against the league's No. 2 run defense and will get little help from Davis through the air. Evans will be running against the league's top-rated run defense and will get little help from Tyrod Taylor or Sean Glennon. If either back gets regular daylight, an unlikely occurrence, it'll give a huge advantage to his team.
When Davis drops back to pass, he better know where No. 1 is at all times. Virginia Tech CB Victor Harris is an unabashed thief and one of the best defensive playmakers in the country. This type of stage was made for him. He's an outstanding cover corner with 15 career picks and four defensive touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Boston College passing game, junior Stephan Virgil offers little comfort on the other side. He's got four picks and great ball skills, which is yet another reason why the Eagles must get something out of the running game.
The headliner on defense for Boston College is LB Mark Herzlich, the heart and soul of the unit. He was excelling before injuries hit the D, but has been playing possessed since Brian Toal was lost for the year with an injury. Not only is Herzlich fifth nationally in solo tackles, but he's matched Harris' six interceptions and two returns for touchdowns. A complete football player with a non-stop motor, he'll never be far from the ball.
Boston College will win if ... it continues to create a slew of turnovers. Only one team in the country has more takeaways than the Eagles, a key reason why they're playing a bonus game. They've got to manufacture points and give the offense a short field, especially with a novice behind center. Boston College failed to pick off a pass just twice all season. It lost both times. In a game that'll be dominated by the defenses and special teams, turnover margin will be even more critical than ever.
Virginia Tech will win if ... someone other than the offense gets in the end zone. To put it bluntly, the Hokies offense is awful. Sure, they can win a 12-9 game, but they'd be a whole lot safer if Harris produces a pick six, Dyrell Roberts returns a kick for a touchdown, or the special teams hosts a block party. The first time these two schools met on Oct. 18, there were three non-offensive touchdowns, two from the Hokies and one from the Eagles. Tech needs to be plus-one in this category again on Saturday.
What will happen: It's a toss-up. The only certainties in a game between two evenly matched schools are that it'll be physical, fueled by defense and special teams, and generally unappealing on offense. Whoever can run — and protect — the ball will be dodging a barrage of oranges at the end of regulation. In a game of this magnitude, the edge goes to the program with the better staff, more experienced quarterback, and sharpest kicker. In all three cases, that's Virginia Tech, which will survive on the strength of Dustin Keys' leg and a timely non-offensive touchdown.
Line: Boston College -1
Fearless Prediction: Virginia Tech 23 ... Boston College 20
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