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10 reasons Florida will beat Oklahoma

by Pete Fiutak

For more previews, predictions and prognostications, go to CollegeFootballNews.com.

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Updated: January 5, 2009, 5:25 PM EST
Ten reasons why Florida will win the national title.

10. The time off ... part one

There's a long, long, looooong time between the end of the regular season and the BCS Championship Game. It's been over a month since Florida and Oklahoma each won their respective conference title games, and while that allows time for some players to heal, and overall the time off is normally a positive, it can also cool off the hot team. Florida beat Alabama in a war, while Oklahoma coasted over the second half of its season and rolled over Missouri. If this game was played on Dec. 13, a week after the conference title games, then Oklahoma would still have all the pistons firing. However, the practice time still doesn't take the place of live action, and while the Sooners are taking a different attitude for this year's bowl, it's impossible to replicate the timing. If OU's timing is just a wee bit off, it could mean everything.

9. The time off ... part two

Which coaching staff would you rather have with a month to prepare? Oklahoma's offense isn't a gimmick in any way; it's really that good. However, it's one thing to have a week to try to figure out what the Sooners are doing, and it's another to have a whole month to come up with new wrinkles to confuse and confound. Few offenses were hotter than Georgia Tech's at the end of the regular season, but the rushing attack wasn't nearly as precise against LSU in the Chick-fil-A Bowl — with the Tigers having a lot to do with that. Ole Miss had a month to prepare for Texas Tech in the Cotton Bowl, and its defense came through fine. A month off allows the Florida coaches to come up with a few extra wrinkles and allows time to find more trends and tendencies — Just ask the Ohio State team that got shut down cold by the Gators in the 2007 BCS Championship Game.

8. The Big 12

The SEC has had its big-time down moments this bowl season (South Carolina vs. Iowa and Alabama vs. Utah), but for the most part the Big 12 has had a rough postseason. As it turns out, the South really might not play any defense as Texas Tech couldn't handle Ole Miss in the Cotton and Oklahoma State got rolled over by Oregon in the Holiday. Considering how poor Missouri looked in the Alamo Bowl against a Northwestern team with far less talent, the Big 12 might not be quite what everyone thought it was. Of course, Nebraska was strong against Clemson in the Gator and Kansas blew out Minnesota in the Insight, and OU had no problems beating either of those two, so there's no reason to dog the Big 12 too much, but it's just possible that the league really can't play any defense.

7. Heisman winners and the No. 1 team

Never mess with a streak. For whatever reason, be it the extra motivation, the extra distractions, getting fat and lazy on the rubber chicken circuit, etc., Heisman winners struggle in bowl games and the No. 1 team usually has a big problem. Don't forget that Ohio State, not LSU, was No. 1 going into last year's title game. Ohio State was No. 2 and Miami No. 1 in the 2003 Fiesta Bowl. No. 2 LSU beat No. 1 Oklahoma in the 2004 Sugar. No. 2 Texas won the 2006 Rose, No. 2 Florida won the 2007 BCS Championship, and LSU won last year. The lone aberration in recent years was USC's blowout over Oklahoma in the 2005 Orange. The Heisman winners have also had issues in the bowls. Tebow's Florida team lost to Michigan last year, Troy Smith and Ohio State got blown out by Florida, Reggie Bush, Jason White, Eric Crouch, and Chris Weinke all won the Heisman and all lost their bowl games since 2000. The two exceptions were the USC quarterbacks, Carson Palmer vs. Iowa and Matt Leinart vs. Oklahoma.

6. The 2008 Fiesta Bowl, the 2007 Fiesta Bowl ...

There was a time when Oklahoma was the biggest bad boy on the block; there's a reason Bob Stoops was called Big Game Bob. But as soon as Mike Stoops left the coaching staff to take over at Arizona, the team has had a problem with the big non-regular season games, starting with the stunning 35-7 loss to Kansas State in the 2003 Big 12 Championship. OU went on to lose to LSU in the national title game. The following year came the big clunker, a 55-19 loss to USC in the Orange Bowl. The 17-14 win over Oregon in the 2005 Holiday was solid, but two years ago came the loss to Boise State after an inexplicable start, and then, supposedly fully focused, West Virginia won in a walk in last year's Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma has to prove it can handle the biggest and brightest of spotlights.

5. Florida can score, too

Everyone knows all about the Oklahoma offense and how potent it is, but it's not like Florida has been struggling for points, finishing third in the nation and averaging over 45 per outing. While there was a 70-point performance against Citadel to pad the stat sheet, in the last eight games since the Ole Miss loss the offense has gotten better and better, averaging 51 points per game. Florida's O is almost perfectly balanced averaging 230 yards rushing and 213 passing per game, and it's ultra-efficient finishing just behind OU, Texas and Tulsa in passing efficiency. While the game plan vs. Alabama was Tebow, Tebow, Tebow, Percy Harvin is back in the mix now to go along with the other weapons and the coaching staff's disposal that went unused in the SEC title game. In other words, Florida has the talent to keep up in a shootout.

4. Special teams

The loss of OU star RB DeMarco Murray is hardly a killer for the running game that's still loaded with talent, but losing his skills as a kickoff returner, where he is averaging close to 28 yards per return, is difficult. Juaquin Iglesias and Mossis Madu should be fine, but the rest of the OU special teams have been a problem. The kickoff coverage team has been lousy, there hasn't been a lot of pop on punt returns, and the punting game has hardly been special. On the flip side, Florida might have the best special teams in America with PK Jonathan Phillips turning in a great year, hitting 11-of-12 field goals, and with Brandon James averaging 14.14 yards per punt return and 23.69 yards per kickoff return. Overall, Florida is 8th in the nation in punting and 7th in punt returns.

3. Don't poke the bear ...

If you need motivation for the national championship, you're in trouble. However, at the collegiate level, having a rallying point seems to matter more when it comes to momentum than it does in most other sports, and Florida has one. If Oklahoma CB Dominique Franks wasn't going to be picked on before, he will be now after saying Tim Tebow wouldn't be among the top three quarterbacks from the Big 12 South. Franks went on to gab about how the best receivers and tight ends come from the Big 12. Forgetting that he might actually be right on all fronts, when players start to squawk before a game of this magnitude, they tend to face ultra-motivated players intending on beating the offender. Florida might not be any more fired up to beat OU because of Franks' comments, but the Gators might want to do more to beat Franks. The Gators have their focal point on defense to pick on.

2. The offensive line factor

Tebow has a lot to do with making the offensive line looks decent, he doesn't go down easily and he helps out the rushing stats, but the Gator front five really is good. It's not as good as Oklahoma's offensive line, but it paved the way for the SEC's best rushing offense and allowed a mere 16 sacks on the year. The Gator defensive front has already had to deal with some elite offensive lines, with LSU's full of future NFL starters and Alabama's, when it had Andre Smith at left tackle, as good as any in America. While the Tide line dominated on a key second half drive in the SEC title game, the suspect (at least at the time) Gator defensive front, with concerns about the depth at defensive tackle, held up well. Now the line has had time to heal and get the spring back in its step, and it should give the OU front all it can handle. The Sooners have faced two teams with elite defensive lines: TCU and Texas. Brian Orakpo came up with two of UT's three sacks in the win, while the Horned Frogs got four sacks and eight tackles for loss, meaning the two teams came up with seven of the 11 sacks allowed by the Sooners. While TCU lost, the 35 points allowed tied Texas for the fewest given up to OU. Florida doesn't have an elite pass rush, but it got better as the year went on with four in each of the final three regular season games. The Gators should be able to generate consistent pressure on Bradford, even if they don't come up with a slew of sacks.

1. De-fense (clap, clap), De-fense (clap, clap)

The Florida defense might be young, but it's extremely athletic and it's very, very good. The secondary hasn't allowed more than two touchdowns in any game this year and it hasn't given up a 300-yard passing day despite facing the new Arkansas passing attack, Georgia's Matthew Stafford, South Carolina's passing game, and the efficient John Parker Wilson of Alabama. No, it's not like getting through the Big 12 South, but this secondary really is good. Brandon Spikes leads a lightning-fast linebacking corps that has helped allow just 105 rushing yards per game. TCU has the best defense the Sooners have seen all season long, but it didn't have the support of the offense. Florida does. The Gators finished the year eighth in the nation in total defense, fourth in scoring defense, 16th in pass defense, 15th in run defense, and second in pass efficiency defense. If Oklahoma wins this game, it'll have earned it.

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soonerbrett andy&kingfish d_bronco padokc big12champs and all ou fans how many years is your denial to continue as kirkavice said below you guys pretend ou did not lose to Texas this season now you pretend the loss to Florida is not one of the most humiliating shutdowns of an ou offense ever you robbed the legitimate contender UT of a title shot and you stole McCoy's Heisman. I hope the media wakes up and starts applying the Big-10 discount to any ou wins for the next decade

AnonCommentAnonComment
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Fair is fair. This is undoubtedly the worst commentary and bias I have seen in a long time. I'm sure ... as usual ... the entire state of Oklahoma is pretty angry. The arrogance is unbelieveable.

padokcpadokc
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I think DopeyOkie has it right: any of the best five teams in the country could beat eachother on a given night. It so happens that we have Ok-Fl for the NC--and no one knows which team will win, with a chance of either getting blown out. They are college players, more easily rattled than seasoned pros, more likely to get psyched out if a few bad plays go against them. A couple turnovers one direction or the other could flip the whole load. When it is all said and done, the reporters (and many commenting here) will try to say that the outcome proves the SEC rules or the Big12 is for realm, or that the Big12 has no defense or that the SEC is overrated. Hey, it is just two young teams going at it, and the outcome will show which team came out on top of the heap this year--nothing more. <br /><br />Commentators note that OU has laid some big eggs in big games over the last few years--true. However, Florida lost its most recent bowl game to Michigan--the Michigan that lost to Appy State at home and could barely find a win this season. The point is not to knock Michigan or insult Florida--UF can lose this game against OU, with some bad luck at a key point, or if they lose their multi-dimensionality: if it comes down to Tebow left, Tebow right, Tebow up the middle. If the Gators win, congratulations. They are a good team, regardless of the outcome--ditto for Oklahoma.

PigskinPsychPigskinPsych
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usc is the most over-rated team in college football.


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Oklahoma State was a one trick pony and when that pony got hurt, in the first half they lost. Texas Tech really only played 3 good games all year, Texas, Kansas, and Ok. State. After getting throttled by OU they should have lost to Baylor. Baylor just hasn't figured out how to win yet. I am not sure what was so suprising about either of those losses. As far as defensive statistics, give me a break, Ohio State had the #1 pass defense in the country going into the Fiesta Bowl. How did that work out. I won't be suprised by whichever team wins the NC game. I wouldn't have been suprised at who won no matter which of the top teams played in the game. These teams all have the ability to beat each other and as college kids they all have the ability to get on the wrong side of the snowball and get crushed. Take USC's vaunted defense getting beat by one man in the NC against Texas. College is about momentum. Both teams will come out hard and one will jump to a fairly sizeable advantage, the reaction of the other team is what will determine whether it is a good game or not. I will be more suprised if it is a close game. If OU comes out rolling on offense Florida is in for a long, long night. If Florida can get four stops in the first five tries and cause a turnover, OU will probably be dead. In the long run I still think that it will be a blowout for one team or the other. Thanks to the media, one story after another just like this one, I am hoping it is OU who wins. Right now I'd evern root for Notre Dame against Florida, but I imagine if it was the Irish the reporting would be just the opposite.

DopeyOkieDopeyOkie
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You have the nerve to call them hillbilly schools and your screen name is GWBUSHJR911?????????????

D_BroncoD_Bronco
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Kirka,<br />I am going to steal a line from Janet Jackson "What have they done for me lately". Please, if you really look at that Texas game there were plenty of questionable calls. I know, calls go both ways but the calls I am refering to lead to the outcome of the game. Even though Texas beat Oklahoma, they didn't stop them. I am telling you, this will be a blowout. Do you hear me! Again, Oklahoma's offense is so fine tuned it will not be stopped. AND AGAIN ...Florida's offense has no face. Stop with the Tebow mess. There are probably 5-8 QBs better that him. Sure they get all the press but truth be told, it is the receivers and the running backs that make the QB. I can go on about this but I'll tell you what. Look at all the great QBs and you will find excellent receivers. RECEIVERS make QBs. That is why Oklahoma will run away with this one. The routes, the receivers and the offensive coordinators are heads above those at Florida's. I have to laugh at all the fake stats and talk of Florida's speed, that's silliness. Look at it like this. 2 men ran a race and one ran a 4.33 forty? If after running that race, would they run the same times if they turned around and ran that same race only seconds after the first. Here is another look at the misleading stats. If a linebacker is forced to cover a tight-end, who would win the race. Wait, who's stats do we use, the "teams" or the linebacker and the end? Then we have to consider the height of the defender and the offensive player; depending on the play that was called. Did you see the catch made by Ohio States QB ...hint! Throw out the stats, it's one-on-one football.

AndyKingfishAndyKingfish
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TEXAS fans give it up, it is a neutral site. 50/50. but dont lose to Tech and you wont have this problem...... Oklahoma crushed tech and it was a THREE way tie not a heads up. THREE WAY TIE, so what would you say if you got in the Big Twelve title game and Tech wasnt crying about not being there cause they beat you? Shut it up....... Mack Brown agreed to the system. He didnt even vote your team number one after the Big twelve championship, so he didnt even believe you deserved it.

D_BroncoD_Bronco
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KirkaVice.....First of all, I am so sick of everybody saying Dallas TX is a ntrl site. DALLAS IS IN TEXAS!!! Oklahoma was playing Texas in Texas. Second of all, since the TX game OU has hung 60 or moe points on every team it has went up against. THEY ARE UNSTOPABLE!!!!!

SoonerBrettSoonerBrett
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Oklahoma shouldnt even be there it should be my hometown team the Texas Longhorns....Go Gators

Bulldogs_25Bulldogs_25
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If Florida wins I will buy a T-shirt proclaiming the fact and on the back I will write with a sharpie UT should have been there and wear it three times a week for a month.....I do live in Oklahoma. Thank God I won't have to do that.

SoonerBrettSoonerBrett
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andy&kingfish,<br />You said "Florida can be stopped, it has been proven. Oklahoma can not be stopped. No team has been able to slow them down."<br /><br />Ummm does Oklahoma not realize they were beat by Texas at a neutral site. Do you guys just pretend that didn't happen.

KirkaViceKirkaVice
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playoffs-- we need a playoff system now!<br />go to<br />www.BSFlag.com/BCS<br />and send a BS Flag email to the BCS chimps!<br />(check out the video--hilarious!)

colinator5000colinator5000
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It should be considered a crime. Yeah, I know that sentence is probably grammatically incorrect. So let me see if I can clear that up. There are just some things that are so easy that they should be outlawed. The outcome of the BCS Championship between Oklahoma and Florida is one that is so transparent that it should be considered a crime. <br />My father once told me that if I find myself in a crowd of like thinking individuals I should look around and move around. It feels good to be around individuals that share a common opinion but that does not make it right. Look, the outcome of Thursday nights matchup is a NO-brainer. Yep, this one is a done deal. Throw out all the stats, they mean nothing and I will tell you why. 1.) Texas barely escaped Ohio State, who is in desparate need of an offensive coordinator that is not stuck in the past. 2.) Alabama was upset by Utah. Pssst ...it wasn't an upset, it was a mindset filled with misleading statistics. 3.) Georgia Tech was beat by LSU at home. 4.) Florida lost to Mississippi, who allowed Texas Tech to score over 30 points. 5.) Iowa crushed South Carolina. Wait a minute, doesn't Iowa play in the same conference as Ohio State. I can go on and on with this.<br />Listen, Stats are flat, sweep them under the carpet. In the BCS Championship game there are however a few statistics that beg attention. Florida can be stopped, it has been proven. Oklahoma can not be stopped. No team has been able to slow them down. Please, it would be a misstake to compare conferences because in all of them there are several tiers. Plus, it is not about team stats. In every game it is basically 4-5 offensive players against 4-5 defensive players. <br />Oklahoma's QB is more accurate than Florida's and has more targets. Tebow "thinks" he is a runner. If and when he decides to tuck and run, he will have to pay the piper. He will be hit and his already suspect throwing game will suffer even more. Oklahoma's QB is seldom touched.<br />But here is the clincher. It's a little known fact that Oklahoma calls its plays only 3-8 seconds before the snap of the ball. They run a hurryup offense that makes adjustments depending on the setup of the defense. Although they have a play in mind, the "checkoff" is initiated by the staff in the booth, not the QB. The QB does not have to concern himself with all the distractions that frequently occur in huddles, ie, players begging for the ball and his favorite buddy winking for a pass. So, in essense, it is not about team defense, it is about 3-4 players against a defense that is scrambling to adjust. That defense, then boils down to a few defenders, not a team. Oklahoma might be one of the few teams that uses this timed-precision-play-calling offense. Remember, Oklahoma's QB, is seldom sacked and has several top targets. AND a host of highly talented runners. <br />There is no logical reason why Florida could or should win this game-NONE!<br />The Kingfish & Andy, done told ya. This is like taking candy from a baby, it should be listed as a crime. <br />Oklahoma will cruise to a victory. They could win by double digits.

AndyKingfishAndyKingfish
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I am sorry to tell all of the gator fans out there that this year will be different than years past. It's not Jason white here to pad his pockets and throw the big game because he knew he did'nt have a chance at being drafted. It's not a true freshman going into his first big game and being caught off gaurd by a trick play to lose the bowl. IT IS a well oiled machine that has stood up to 6 at regular seasons end top 25 teams and beat 5 of them by 25 or more points. Florida should'nt say OU has'nt faced a defence like theirs. They should be more worried about facing an offense like ours. Tebow has not went up against a Heisman candidate. Bradford has been on the field with several. Think about that Gators

SoonerBrettSoonerBrett
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Archloaff, ALABAMA, was dominated by Utah........... The second best team in the SEC. OK state, the fourth best team in the Big Twelve, which Oregon was the second best in the Pac 10. Texas Tech 3rd best team in the Big twelve, yeah and Ole Miss was maybe fourth in the SEC, but do you not remember what Oklahoma did to TECH???? Everyone said that Oklahoma didnt have the D to stop Harrell and Crabtree.... They rose to the occassion and shut them down. And all those teams that scored 30 or more points on oklahoma...... Do me a favor and look up how many times they had the ball. Kstate had the ball 18 times and scored 5 times. Oklahoma scores fast and often. I think it will be a great game, but for people who think OU is weak, they are just Florida homers SEC homers. Its oklahoma vs. florida not conference vs conference. Im not here to say Oklahomas defense is a world beater, but they didnt get here on defense, they put defenses on their heels and catch you so you cant sub different personnel.

D_BroncoD_Bronco
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Tomrific you need to seriously get laid.

gat31orgat31or
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D Bronco - if it's a "wash", if the defense in the Big12 is as good, and the offense is better (as it appears) then how in the hell was Ole Miss able to hang 47 freakin points on Tech and win the game dominantly! Do you realize tech had 1, I repeat ONE, offensive TD in the entire 1st half? <br /><br />I won't even get into what Oregon did to Oklahoma State.<br /><br />I suspect FL will show Oklahoma more defense than they've seen all year. The receivers will be open less, Bradford will have to scramble more, Bradford will get sacked, and Oklahoma will rush for less yardage than they're used to. I'm not saying Oklahoma's bad or they have yet to be challenged. All I'm saying is this FL D will pose challenges not yet seen this year.<br /><br />And yes, I am confident that FL can hang as many, or more, points than K-State's 35 or Oklahoma States 41. People are gonna act surprised if FL hangs 50 or 60 points on this Oklahoma team but how can they? Oklahoma's defense has been giving up 30-40 points to average offenses. Lee Corso said this is the fastest offense he's ever seen.

ArchloaffArchloaff
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A Glimpse of things to come!!<br />In a galaxy far, far away on Jan. 8th a proud band of rebels known as "The Mighty Gators" would do battle with the evil empire known as the "Oklahomans" led by their leader, Darth Sooner. Darth Sooner used to be known as Anakin Stoop before the the once mighty Longhorns beat him in battle. The Longhorns were later ambushed and wiped out by the "BCS" allies of the evil empire. The Gators led by Jedi Master Obi Urban Meyer arrived at the planet of palm trees, beaches, and sun known as Miami with their secret waepon. He is a young Jedi Knight known as Tim Tebow. He is the last hope for the universe. General Incicdious Bradford, surrounde by his Imperial Guard dressed in crimson and creme led the Oklahomans into battle. The battle lasted several hours and as the dust cleared, the rag tag army of Gators were victorius. They marched off the battlefield holding the crystal football that represented the future and a 3rd National Championship!!

TomrificTomrific
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As a longtime gator fan I can still see the facts are the sooners should win. Should of, could of, would of, doesn't matter, facts are Tebow defies the odds in all the ways that count. The only way to stop the gators now, a football team doesn't possess it.


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