The BCS MESS: Pointspread Projections for every national title game scenario

Published on: October 29, 2012 | Written by: Todd Fuhrman

We've got controversy! Every installment of the BCS leaves us wanting answers as we try to make sense of the national championship picture. Kansas St looked impressive again Saturday using a dominating 3rd quarter to put away an underrated Texas Tech side. Oregon took out Colorado, showcashing their explosive offense with 8 consecutive TD drives in the first half. However, your most eye opening effort was the Golden Domers going into Norman and physically dominating Oklahoma to silence the naysayers, myself included, for another weekend.  In Vegas we have our own opinions of who the second best team in the country is and the BCS has it all wrong.

The most recent BCS poll spit out some curious results Sunday afternoon. Oregon, despite dismantling their competition, fell to 4th even though they still remain a clear cut #2 among linemakers. The schedule hasn't tested Chip Kelly's team but you can't blame them for pummeling all their competition in 20 minutes. Over the next month the schedule stiffens however with both Oregon St and USC going down this past Saturday, the Ducks' chances for marquee victories are scarce. Kansas St's schedule isn't daunting either over the next 4 games with this Saturday's game vs Oklahoma State and a road trip to TCU their biggest remaining obstacles. The Wildcats computer profile also took a blow with Oklahoma falling to the Irish. Notre Dame remains the wild card as they should now be unblemished headed into their season finale against USC.

In addition to the 4 remaining unbeatens (with no disrespect to Louisville), there are also 4 relevant teams currently sitting with 1 loss on their resume.  Florida St has the chance against Florida to claim another signature. Gator nation's national title aspirations were temporarily derailed by the loss to UGA so Florida will need some help getting back into the title mix.  Georgia provides the most compelling case for a 1 loss team with an inside track to the SEC East title and subsequent opportunity to knock off either LSU or Alabama in the conference title game.  Knowing everything is fluid, here are the projected point spreads for all 8 teams if they matched up with one another on a neutral field this weekend.

  Alabama Oregon K St ND LSU Georgia UF
Oregon Bama -5            
Kansas St Bama -10.5 UO -5          
ND
Bama -13 UO -9 KSU -2.5        
LSU   UO -5 LSU -1 LSU -3.5      
Georgia Bama -14 UO -8.5 KSU -3 UGA -1 LSU -3    
Florida Bama -10.5 UO -4.5 UF -1 UF -4 UF -1 UF -3  
Florida St Bama -9 UO -3 FSU -2.5 FSU -4.5 FSU -2 FSU -4 FSU -2.5


As you can see from the power numbers, Oregon is clearly the 2nd best team in the eyes of the experts. The team that poses the stiffest on field test for Bama and Oregon is actually Florida State followed closely by Kansas State.  While we continue to dog the Irish, it would be mighty tough to keep a 12-0 team with such proud tradition out of the title game.

Top 3 Mooses (bad beats) of the betting weekend...

Moose is a term those of us in the industry use for a bad beat. Anyone who bets football long enough eventually feels the wrath of the gambling gods. Special thanks to everyone on twitter who submitted their vote for the top bad beats of the weekend

Honorable Mention:

Houston -14 vs UTEP: Houston had a commanding 45-7 lead (including a 31 point cushion headed into the 4th) before UTEP mounted their point spread rally scoring the game's final 28 unanswered points.  The win was never in doubt but the Miners perseverance helped them sneak in the backdoor, creating one of the weekend's more improbable against the spread results.

3) USF -3.5 vs Syracuse

Leave it to Skip Holtz to squander a 23-3 halftime lead and burn his betting constituents. By all accounts a large lead should protect a cover, especially when the Bulls drilled a short field goal to go up 5 with 1:23 left. Ryan Nassib had other plans, leading the Orange to the game winning (and covering) TD drive with 3 seconds left.

2) Toledo -7.5 @ Buffalo

You have to be strong in the kicking game!!! For Rockets bettors they had all the offense they needed but left 3 valuable points on the board because of botched extra points. The Rockets failed to get on the scoreboard in the 4th quarter, letting a 25-14 lead shrink to an eventual 25-20 final score.

1) North Carolina -7.5 vs North Carolina State

This was a game that will go down in the moose hall of fame. North Carolina looked down and out headed into the 4th quarter trailing their in state rivals 35-25. It wasn't until then the Heels kicked their offense into high gear ratting off18 straight points capped off with a 74 yard punt return with 13 ticks remaining. However, NC St backers were still confident +7.5 was in great shape because UNC wouldn't dare go for 2. In the most unlikely of scenarios, a botched snap on the PAT led to a successful UNC 2 pt conversion, breaking hearts of Wolfpack bettors across the country.