SEC APOCALYPSE: Vegas Fallout

Published on: November 13, 2012 | Written by: Todd Fuhrman

Saturday's upset in Tuscaloosa sent shockwaves through the SEC.  Fallout in the betting world ran deep as well, forcing drastic changes in the college football futures market. What exactly did Alabama's loss mean to the odds to win the BCS? The single result left a few Kansas St backers holding tickets at 100-1 and Notre Dame bettors at 40-1 brimming with new found confidence.

Investing in futures appeals to casual fans as much as the seasoned gambler seeking value. What better way to get behind your team early in the year than with a $10 bet promising a $10,000 payout if you were an optimistic Aggie fan.  College football, much like the NBA, normally lends itself to favorites however there is the occasional 3 figure exception. Two years ago when the SEC was duped into believing Gene Chizik was a suitable college coach, hopeful bettors snaked Auburn at prices as high as 150-1 in the spring and rode the Cam Newton magical mystery tour to a healthy payday.

Coming into this season, very few of us anticipated Kansas St playing a role in the national title chase so their opening price of 100-1 reflected those sentiments. Unfortunately for Notre Dame backers, their public profile suppresses future odds annually and 40-1 was a far cry from a price befitting a team projected to win 8 games before the year.  Although they'll need things to break perfectly if they're to get a shot and play for the national title, I'm willing to bet a few hopeful Texas A&M enthusiasts who pounced on the Aggies at 9999-1 (after the team's loss to LSU) are still hoping there's more Manziel magic left in the tank.

All futures prices courtesy of the LVH Superbook

BCS Rank Team 10-Sep 8-Oct 29-Oct 5-Nov 12-Nov
1 Kansas St 100-1 18-1 7-2 3-1 7-5
2 Oregon 7-1 7-2 9-2 3-1 6-5
3 Notre Dame 40-1 20-1 6-1 10-1 6-1
4 Alabama 3-1 7-5 1-1 4-5 6-1
5 Georgia 12-1 50-1 25-1 20-1 20-1
6 Florida 40-1 8-1 30-1 25-1 100-1
7 LSU 5-1 18-1 10-1 1000-1 1000-1
8 Texas A&M 1000-1 1000-1 9999-1 9999-1 1000-1
9 S. Carolina 20-1 7-1 100-1 5000-1 1000-1
10 Florida St 12-1 50-1 60-1 100-1 1000-1

 

Under the current format where losing early seems to be the norm rather than the exception, it always pays to keep your eye out for value. This wil be one of the last seasons under the current bowl format so the wild swings bettors have grown accustomed to with college football futures will soon become a betting trend of the past.